Demonetisation seems to have not stopped the Modi wave as the BJP is expected to win in four out of five states that went to polls recently, according to exit poll by various media houses. The surveys predicted BJP’s win in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and Punjab, while Congress is expected to stage a comeback in Punjab. Today’s Chanakya which got its prediction right after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and subsequent Assembly polls, has given 285 seats to the BJP, 88 seats to the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and just 27 seats to Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party.
The India Today Axis exit poll predicted 185 seats, little short of the majority, for BJP in Uttar Pradesh followed by Samajwadi party-Congress alliance at 120 seats and BSP at 90 seats. As per India TV, the saffron party is expected to win 155 to 167 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while SP-Congress alliance is likley to win 135 to 147 seats follwoed by BSP with 81 to 93 seats.
Times Now-VMR poll forecast 190-210 seats for the BJP in the UP assembly, while India News-MRC gave it 185 and ABP-Lokniti CSDS 164-176 seats. If BJP wins UP, it would be a return to power for the party in the politically significant and volatile state after 15 years. In the NDTV poll of polls, an average of several exit polls, the BJP was projected to win 179 seats, the SP-Congress 136 and the BSP 77 seats in UP.
There were good news from Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa too for the BJP as the party is likely to form government in all three states, according to the surveys. After storing to power in Assam, the BJP is expected to make its base strong in the north east with likely win in Manipur. India Today predicted 25-31 out of 60 seats for the saffron party followed by Congress with 17-23 seats. NDTV predicted a close fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP with the former getting 26 and the latter 24. Congress has been ruling the northeastern state for the last 15 years.
The BJP is likely to retain Goa with the support of independent winners as India Today predicted 18-22 seats win for the BJP, while Congress is expected to with 9-13 seats while 0-2 seats are expected to be bagged by the Aam Aadmi Party. India TV predicted a hung assembly in Manipur, projecting 15-21 seats for the BJP and 12-18 for the Congress.
BJP also looked set to return to power in Uttarakhand, with India Today and News 24 projecting a comfortable majority for the party, giving it 46-53 and 53 seats respectively, in the 70-member House, way more than the halfway mark of 30. However, India TV gave 29 and 35 seats to the two parties. NDTV gave the BJP a majority with 43 seats followed by the ruling Congress with 23.
In Punjab, India Today-Axis exit poll predicted 62-71 seats for the Congress in 117-member assembly, a comfortable majority, and 42-51 to Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP. The Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine was projected to be decimated in the state which it has ruled for a decade. All polls showed the alliance getting reduced to a single digit tally. However, India TV-C Voter projected 59-67 seats for debutante AAP and 41-49 for the Congress. India News-MRC and News 24-Chanakya forecast a dead heat by giving 55 and 54 seats each to both parties.
NDTV forecast 55 seats for the Congress in Punjab, closely followed by the AAP with 54 seats. The incumbent Akali Dal-BJP alliance was predicted staring at a virtual decimation with only 7 seats in the 117-member assembly.
The results of the state elections will be announced on March 11.