Elections results 2017: Did exit poll gurus get it right in 2012? Here’s what happened then

Exit polls: What did political gurus predict in 2012 and what were the results? Here's all you need to know

By: Express Web Desk | New Delhi | Updated: March 10, 2017 2:20 pm
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Ahead of the counting of votes on Saturday, exit poll gurus declared their state-wise seat predictions for Punjab, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh Thursday inviting mixed reaction by parties. While the ruling SAD government in Punjab — which is headed for a complete uproot according to predictions —  said exit polls are “unreliable and without any rationale”, parties like BJP are particularly upbeat about the numbers which predict their win. Psephologists have predicted a win for BJP in UP — a state which is considered to be fairly important for its stakes in the national political scenario.

Watch Video | Exit Polls 2017: BJP Confident, Congress Predicts Close Fight

Here’s a look into how the ‘polls on polls’ fared during the last Assembly elections in these states:

Uttar Pradesh 2012: Exit poll for 2012 Assembly elections had indicated Mayawati’s uproot but were mostly off the mark on the number of seats. While STAR News-Nielsen predicted 183 seats for the Samajwadi Party, BSP’s share stood at 83, BJP’s 71 and Congress-Rashtriya Dal alliance were likely to get 71 seats. CNN-IBN predicted 232-250 seats for  SP and 65-70 for Mayawati led BSP. It had also predicted 28-28 seats for BJP. Aaj Tak’s prediction gave 195-210 seats for SP and 88-98 for BSP.

The results saw SP swooping 224 seats, BSP managing 80 seats and BJP winning 47 seats. The Congress RLD alliance won 28+9 seats. 

Punjab 2012: If exit polls were to be believed, Congress would have won the state elections in 2012. While CNN-IBN had predicted 60 seats for the party and 51-63 seats for SAD-BJP, News 24-Chanakya poll also predicted 60 seats for Congress and 52 for the SAD-BJP alliance. The India TV-C Voter figures had also given a clear edge to Congress predicting 65 seats in the 117 member house. The election results, however, went against all predictions.

While the SAD-BJP alliance formed the government with 68 seats, Congress had won 46 seats.

Uttarakhand 2012: Exit polls had predicted a neck to neck fight between the Congress and the BJP in Uttarakhand — a state which had rejected two incumbent governments in the two elections held since its creation.

The predictions were dramatically correct as Congress won one seat more than BJP. While BJP managed to win 31 seats, Congress won 32 and with the support of BSP’s 3 candidates, it formed the government in 2012. 

Goa 2012: In the 40-member Assembly, psephologists had said BJP would win half the seats and Congress would finish off second.  Exit poll projections showed BJP was expected to win 18-22 seats while Congress could get 15-19 seats.

Results? While BJP won 21 seats, Congress showed a dismal performance by winning 9 seats.

Manipur 2012: While exit polls showed Congress would return to power in the state, they were largely mistaken on the numbers. It was being projected that Congress was likely to bag 23-27 seats in the 60-member house. While CNN-IBN-The Week predicted 24-32 seats for the party, New24-Today’s Chanakya polls indicated Congress would win 25 seats.

The Congress had won 42 seats

2017 Exit Polls

This time around, at least five exit polls predicted that BJP would emerge as the single largest party in the Uttar Pradesh elections and may even come close to the magic figure in a 403-member House. The SP-Congress alliance was shown to be at the No. 2 spot. Chanakya-News24 predicted that BJP may get more than 250 seats and the alliance would nestle at the second spot with less than 100 seats. The BSP, which was being considered as a dark horse in the race, may have less than 100 seats, as per predictions. India TV and ABP News gave the alliance around 145-160 seats. Times Now and India News predicted that SP-Congress alliance may win close to 120 seats.

Exit polls seem to have consensus over Punjab with all of them predicting a change of government. Four polls gave the ruling SAD-BJP alliance less than 10 seats. Two predicted a tight contest between Congress and AAP, indicating they may win 50 seats each. While India Today said the SAD-BJP alliance may get a minimum of 4 but a maximum of 7 seats, it gave away 71 seats to Congress and a maximum of 51 seats to AAP.

While News24 and India Today predicted 53 seats for BJP in Uttarakhand, India News projected 38 seats. India TV said both the parties were likely to win and the numbers would be within the range of 29-35. India News gave the Congress 30 seats.

In Goa, India TV and India Today said BJP may win a maximum of 22 seats, but India TV gave Congress a chance of winning up to 18 seats. The AAP, according to the exit polls, may get less than 6 seats in Goa.

As far as Manipur is concerned, India TV predicted that the BJP was likely to win 25-31 seats. For Congress, it showed 17-23 seats. India Today predicted Congress win by speculating 30-36 seats for the Congress and 16-22 for BJP.

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First Published on: March 10, 2017 12:12 pm
  1. S
    SubbuI
    Mar 10, 2017 at 12:30 pm
    ALL EXIT POOL WILL NOT BE CORRECT AS YOU CAN SEE CONTRATICTING FIGURES BEWEEN EACH IN AT LEAST 3 to 5 CASES . LET US WAIT FOR 18 HOURS MORE,N GENERAL IT APPEARS BJP DID WELL BUT NOT AS EXPECTED BY BHAKTHA .ALSO CONGRESS HAS NOT DONE BAD AS WANTED BU MODI BHAKTHS. CONGRESS MUKTH BHARATH REMAiNS A DREAM FOR SANGHIS AS EVER. BUT THE G OLD PARTY IS REVIVING SLOWLY BUT SURELY TO THE THE GREAT DISCOMFORT OF NALAYAK NMODI WHO THOUGHT HE CAN WIPE OUT CONGRESS. BUT HE KNOWS WELL THE TRUTH IS JUST OPPOSITE.
    Reply
    1. V
      vvvvv
      Mar 10, 2017 at 1:16 pm
      All umption wrong for UP There is no such magic like 200 seats to BJP from the face of Amit Shah and modi it seems if they get three figure 100 it is more that to being pm beging fromm the janta for all his failure policies... Only Congress-Sp may get more than250 seats and form the govt... Jai Hind
      Reply
      1. N
        Niraj
        Mar 10, 2017 at 11:14 am
        If statistical sampling technique in 3 phases lt;br/gt;1.determining sample size, lt;br/gt;2.sample selection lt;br/gt;3. and then evaluationlt;br/gt;are designed and implemented properly, the sample results can be extrapolated to the potion. It means sample results can be projected to the w potion with some margin of error. So not necessarily that sample results are incorrect. lt;br/gt;If I recollect 39 different exit polls during last 20 years, 30 exit polls on the basis of sample were either found to be correct or at least the clearly hinted the trends to follow. statistical Sampling is based on Probability theory. I request u all to at least go though this technique through You tube and google.
        Reply
        1. F
          Firstpost Commenter
          Mar 10, 2017 at 7:45 am
          Exit polls are just a 50% guess game
          Reply
          1. A
            Asish kumar
            Mar 10, 2017 at 2:23 pm
            Cong SP to get 80 -90 seats.even Akhilesh is dreaming like that.AJ DJ should get @40 seats and Rahul Baba @10 seats.They have not created image and badname till now.They are Papus in their 40s-how can they think more than 40.people of UP are reasonably clever people and not to put their destiny on these juniors.l
            Reply
            1. K
              kunal
              Mar 10, 2017 at 7:57 am
              IF in UP BSP was part of alliance, it wld have won hands down. But without BSP it is a catch situation.
              Reply
              1. L
                L bhadrapati Devi
                Mar 10, 2017 at 12:28 pm
                If the media house has conducted exit poll sincerely based on the various modus ope of unfair practice by all political parties and taking sampling design is made accordingly, it will give a clear result.
                Reply
                1. M
                  Mayur Panghaal
                  Mar 10, 2017 at 10:51 am
                  With a sample size of 20,000 in a 10 CRORE potion state, how can the results project a REAL result ??lt;br/gt;Any answers ?? Unless its the prelude to m rigging of voting machines.
                  Reply
                  1. A
                    ajay
                    Mar 10, 2017 at 11:57 am
                    you will be most happy to see BJP coming to pwer in 4 states except punjab .
                    Reply
                    1. R
                      R C
                      Mar 10, 2017 at 11:53 am
                      Congress will win majority in Punjab while BJP would have majority in UP, , Uttara Khand,Goa and Manipur
                      Reply
                      1. S
                        sachith
                        Mar 10, 2017 at 10:04 am
                        confusionlt;br/gt;Order ladoo or not???
                        Reply
                        1. S
                          samir
                          Mar 10, 2017 at 10:39 am
                          all sweet shops should take money in advance if bhakata/bhhagta order...no guarantees for later....TandC apply.
                          Reply
                          1. S
                            samir
                            Mar 10, 2017 at 10:35 am
                            saare halwaI ko bol do ke agar bhatu log mithai book kare...to saare pese advance me le...baad me mat kehna.
                            Reply
                            1. A
                              Aniruddha Sen
                              Mar 10, 2017 at 12:19 pm
                              A columnist had suggested earlier that all the parties should come to agreement and pool money to order sweets and crackers. Then whosoever wins should use those.
                              Reply
                              1. A
                                Aniruddha Sen
                                Mar 10, 2017 at 12:16 pm
                                Possibly. But in most states the margin of victory may be thin.
                                Reply
                                1. S
                                  Sri
                                  Mar 10, 2017 at 4:44 pm
                                  Despite all the poll predictions, my view:lt;br/gt;1. Goa and Punjab to AAPlt;br/gt;2. Uttarkhand and Manipur equal number of seats to BJP and Congress, or either gets a slender majority.lt;br/gt;3. UP - SP and congress combine.
                                  Reply
                                  1. S
                                    s s nair
                                    Mar 10, 2017 at 8:06 am
                                    Waste of time of the people. The media cannot wait till tomorrow.
                                    Reply
                                    1. S
                                      SUNIL
                                      Mar 10, 2017 at 12:27 pm
                                      I HAD expected some hard facts , why those exit polls went wrong. a more crunching of figures, or how they arrived at those numbers would have been more interesting and educating .what you served is nothing .
                                      Reply
                                      1. S
                                        SUNIL
                                        Mar 10, 2017 at 12:24 pm
                                        IF SAD-BJP ARE GOING TO LOOSE HAVEILY AS PREDICTED BY EXIT POLLS AND IT HAPPENES ON 11 MARCH, I PRAY, CONGRESS SHOULD FORM THE GOV. SECOND RSS SHOULD START ITS PROJECT OF DOING PUJA AND RECITING GURU GRANTH SAHEB IN TEMPLES. WITH SAD REDUCED TO ASHES, THIS PROJECT MAY WORK OUT FOR ULTIMATE UNITY OF SIKHS UNITY WITH HINDUS, WITHOUT ANY ONE LOOSEING FACE.
                                        Reply
                                        1. M
                                          mohamed ali
                                          Mar 10, 2017 at 12:20 pm
                                          All the opinion pols are fails and not reliable. Previous poles prove it we have wait till tomorrow
                                          Reply
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