The reclusive leader of the Islamic State group broke a nearly year-long silence as Iraqi forces closed in on Mosul today, urging his jihadists to hold their ground. It was Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s first statement since Iraqi forces launched a massive offensive on October 17 to retake Mosul, where the IS chief declared the group’s “caliphate” two years ago. “Do not retreat,” Baghdadi said in a purported message released by an IS-affiliated outlet. “Holding your ground with honour is a thousand times easier than retreating in shame.”
In June 2014, days after jihadist fighters swept across swathes of Iraq, he made a rare public appearance in Mosul and announced the creation of an Islamic “state” straddling Iraq and Syria. The “caliphate” has been shrinking steadily since last year and Iraqi forces earlier this week reached the outskirts of Mosul, the jihadists’ last major stronghold in Iraq.
If authentic, the recording entitled “This is what God and his messenger have promised us”, would be Baghdadi’s first since December 2015 and a rare sign of life. Rumours have swirled about the Iraqi jihadist leader’s health and movements but his whereabouts are unclear.
IS has fallen back when massively outnumbered in recent battles, giving up some of its emblematic bastions — such as Fallujah in Iraq and Dabiq in Syria — without following its wn apocalyptic ideology of fighting to the bitter end.
In his latest message, which is undated but makes reference to events that are at most a few weeks old, Baghdadi
also calls for attacks against Saudi Arabia – a favourite target – and Turkey. Ankara has troops stationed at a base just outside Mosul and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s escalating rhetoric has raised fears of a unilateral Turkish intervention in Iraq.
Baghdadi also said that his followers who could not travel to Syria or Iraq should aim for Libya and urged all IS
fighters to remain united in adversity. He attempted to stir up sectarian resentment by referring to religious flags and slogans of Shiite fighters among Iraqi forces and by accusing other Sunni groups and politicians of treason.
The recapture of Mosul by Iraqi forces could spell the end of the group’s days as a land-holding force in Iraq and deal a death blow to the “caliphate”. The US-led coalition supporting the Iraqi offensive estimates the number of IS fighters holed up in Mosul at 3,000 to 5,000 and has warned the battle for the city could be long and difficult.