After the first two weeks of the monsoon season, India has received about 25 per cent below normal rainfall. Instead of the 61.4 mm rainfall it should have got till now, there has only been 46.2 mm rains till June 15, primarily because of the one-week delay in the arrival of the monsoon.
The progress of the monsoon has also been sluggish since its arrival. The northern limit of the monsoon on the western coast has now been almost stationary for a few days, located around northern coastal Karnataka and southern Maharashtra. On the eastern side, most parts of Rayalseema, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim have been covered. The entire north-eastern region has also received rains.
Normally, by this time, the monsoon should have moved northwards to cover the whole of Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal, and even eastern Uttar Pradesh.
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On Friday, the Met department said that conditions were favourable for the northward movement of the monsoon to reach Konkan and Goa, some parts of Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, remaining parts of Karnataka, some parts of Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal, and Jharkhand by Sunday. By the end of the coming week, it is likely to advance further into more parts of east India and some parts of central India.
The Met department also said that rainfall was likely to increase over many parts of eastern, central and southern peninsular India from June 21. Central India and the western coast is likely to get above normal rainfall during the time. Northwest India, including states in the north and Delhi, are expected to witness fairly widespread rainfall from June 26.
After a week of slow progress, atmospheric conditions are favourable for a swift northward movement of the monsoon, the Met department said. A trough has formed at the mean sea-level extending from northern Rajasthan to west central Bay of Bengal. This is likely to pull the monsoon winds northwards. A strong Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical disturbance, is also nearing the Indian sub-continent and this could result in a period of intense rainfall.
Interior Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalaseema have so far recorded excess rainfall, while Kerala, Tamil Nadu and parts of West Bengal, have had normal rainfall.