If the Rio Olympics were held today, the United States would win the most medals as well as the most golds. And swimmer Michael Phelps would collect five more gold medals and a bronze, bringing his overall total to 28 with a career gold-medal haul of 23. With 99 days to go for the Rio Olympics, US-based Gracenote has done the number crunching to predict the medals tally and more.
USA vs the rest
According to Gracenote, USA will continue to lead the medals tally with a combined haul of 102 medals (42 gold, 29 silver and 31 bronze).
China will come 2nd with 78 medals (31 gold, 26 silver and 21 bronze) while Russia will be 3rd with 66 medals (22 gold, 22, silver and 22 bronze).
Hosts Brazil is expected to take home 25 medals (9 gold, 8 silver and 8 bronze) – a record
USA is expected to win a total of 63 medals in the top three popular disciplines of swimming, artistic gymnastics and athletics. Gracenote predicts USA will win 31 medals in athletics, 24 in swimming and 8 in gymnastics.
Michael Phelps (US swimmer): is predicted to improve his medal haul with 5 golds (100m butterfly, 200m butterfly, 200m individual medley, 4×100 medley, 4x200m freestyle), and one bronze (4x100m freestyle)
Simone Biles (US gymnast): 4 golds (beam, floor, individual all-around, team) and one silver (vault)
Katie Ledecky (US swimmer): 4 golds (200m freestyle, 400m freestyle, 800m freestyle, 4x200m freestyle)
Emily Seebohm (Australian swimmer) : 3 golds (100m backstroke, 200m backstroke, 4x100m freestyle) and one silver (4x100m medley)
Ma Long (Chinese table tennis champ): 2 golds (singles and team)
On the losing side
Russia could win 13 fewer medals at Rio and it could go down further if its athletes are banned from taking part in the Olympics.
Argentina is predicted to claim just two medals, its lowest return since 1992 while Spain’s tally is expected to fall for the fourth successive Olympics. However, Carolina Marin could give Spain an Olympic gold in badminton.
Where Does India Stand
If Gracenote is to be believed, then India is to lose one medal in Rio. While the country won 6 medals in London (2 silver and 4 bronze), they are expected to claim 5 in Rio. At the same time India might win a gold with the rest all bronze.
Among the medal winners the mixed doubles team in tennis is expected to take gold while the women’s archery team, boxer Shiva Thapa (bantamweight), shooter Jitu Rai (50m pistol) and women’s doubles team could win bronze.
How Does It Work
Gracenote, the world’s leading provider of entertainment data, uses performance data from thousands of events and an extensive Olympic database. The Virtual Medal Table organises and analyses the data to come up with the predictions.