The task against a cussedly defiant Pakistan lies ahead

In the wake of the verdict, India will obviously have to watch how the Pakistan Army reacts.

Written by Rana Banerji | Updated: May 21, 2017 8:29 am
Kulbhushan Jadhav, Kulbhushan Jadhav hearing, jadhav hearing, ICJ, International court of justice, jadhav death sentence, hague, india, pakistan, indian express news, india news India should try to work on a strategy which de-escalates Pakistan’s embarrassment or humiliation after the ICJ verdict.

Asserting its jurisdiction under Art 36(1), staying Kulbhushan Jadhav’s execution and ruling that ‘spies’ or ‘terrorists’ cannot be excluded from consular access under the Vienna Convention and its Optional Protocol, which is binding on both countries, the International Court of Justice has vindicated India’s strategy.

The Pakistani authorities seem to have been caught by surprise. Moreover, they came badly prepared in their legal defense and have now gone into sullen denial; their only defence is that they will present strong substantive evidence later.

There is understandable relief in India, but an arduous task lies ahead against a cussedly defiant, unpredictable State of Pakistan which continues to derive legitimacy from its unmitigated hatred of India, and where rival power centers remain mired in a struggle for supremacy.

Also read | ICJ verdict will add to civil-military tensions in Pakistan

Immediately after the judgment, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party absurdly tweeted that Pakistan’s weak defence was the outcome of Indian industrialist Sajjan Jindal’s Track II missive to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. This line of attack has strained the credulity of saner Pakistani observers, like noted jurist and human rights activist Asma Jehangir as well as former diplomat Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, who have said not granting India consular access to Jadhav may have been a mistake.

However, Foreign Policy Adviser Sartaj Aziz was quite categorical in adhering, even afterwards, to Pakistan’s known stand that this cannot be conceded because of security connotations.

Also read | Pakistan in turmoil after ICJ defeat

In the wake of the verdict, India will obviously have to watch how the Pakistan Army reacts. A bull-in-China-shop-type execution, after the mandatory 130 days of appeal plus clemency period expires sometime in August, seems unlikely. Having gone to The Hague, Pakistan may not like to attract further international opprobrium by defying due process, the perception of which is already dulled by the military court trial.

However, the Pakistani “deep state”, its army and intelligence agencies, can be expected to fully activate its ISI Media cell efforts to build sustainable charges of Jadhav’s involvement in nefarious activities in parts of Balochistan and Karachi. They may rig him up to Uzair Baloch, the notorious ganglord and spy arrested last year, whose confessions were obtained in Army confinement.

Also read | What was won or lost at The Hague

Nawaz Sharif’s position is quite weak after the Panama papers’ verdict. Just before it came, Pakistan army chief, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, met Imran Khan quietly on April 1, signalling a possible switch in support of the 2018 elections. The ISPR also expressed concern on public morality.

In recent weeks and months, a new political turbulence has been increasingly visible inside Pakistan. An uneasy truce is in existence between a weakened prime minister and the Army, which was forced to withdraw a tweet critical of the government, although Nawaz Sharif had sacrificed two chosen loyalists, information minister Pervaiz Rashid and Special Assistant on foreign affairs, Tariq Fatemi.

Against this backdrop, it would be unreasonable to expect the civilian leadership to do anything which isn’t sanctioned by the Army – which is unlikely to allow India consular access as its own case against Jadhav could collapse.

India should try to work on a strategy which de-escalates Pakistan’s embarrassment or humiliation after the ICJ verdict. The undercover track between the two national security advisors, Ajit Doval and Nasser Janjua, needs to be activated to assess the minimum sine-qua-non the Pakistan Army could live with. Merely a tactical de-escalation of eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation along the Line of Control and the international border will not suffice.

Would the offer of resumption of comprehensive dialogue on all contentious issues help? Can this at all be put forward, without first de-escalating and tackling our own internal situation in South Kashmir districts more efficiently and peacefully? These are all going to be difficult steps to contemplate and think through.

If the de-escalation of tensions makes even incremental progress, the possibility of `a bridge of spies’ type exchange situation exists — although there is no credible confirmation of the abduction of the retired Pakistani intelligence officer, Lt Col Mohd Habib by India. Perhaps these are scenarios more likely in fiction and film, rather than the hard grit and realpolitik that is a byword for India-Pakistan negotiations. That still remains a very long haul.

Rana Banerji is retired from R&AW, India’s external intelligence wing

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  1. I
    Imran Hashmi
    May 23, 2017 at 11:18 pm
    be ready he will be hanged
    Reply
    1. m
      m.narasimhan
      May 20, 2017 at 12:29 pm
      dear sir, stan's constaints imposed on life of kulbusan singh yadhav whose desire a fuller life is not feasible in which destiny threwed him who kidnapped from iran &named as spy by somehow got relief from international court of justice is a real victory to india,if stan wants an ad-hock judge in icj it clearly shows the revenge but the judge must be approved by icj with years of experiences served in courts the moral grouds in his mind has tobe verfied before absorption inti icj which the w world expects, stan already had a bad name for terrorism activities cultivating isis underworld mafias they breed for their existance as a nation royal family cultures threatening weaker people islamic laws on property&womens rights shut down but military intelligence&its methods of interrogation with rude&tough more than a police force widely known throughout the world,vienna convention&geneva must be respected to al prisioners&provision to consular access be given to all imprisioned
      Reply
      1. M
        MK
        May 20, 2017 at 3:48 pm
        The Vienan Convention is not for terrorists and spies, he will be hanged no matter what, I dont see anyway he will handed over to Endya...
        Reply