Five-point someone

The foundations of Modi’s vigorous regional diplomacy

Written by C. Raja Mohan | Updated: May 26, 2014 9:22 am
For Modi, Nawaz Sharif’s willingness to show up at the launch of his government is a political bonus. For Modi, Nawaz Sharif’s willingness to show up at the launch of his government is a political bonus.

Although Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif will draw most of the media attention at the anointment of Narendra Modi as India’s 14th prime minister at Rashtrapati Bhawan today, there is no underestimating the importance of the seven other regional leaders who will be present at the occasion.

For Modi, Nawaz Sharif’s willingness to show up at the launch of his government is a political bonus. If Modi is luckier than Manmohan Singh and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, he might make some sustainable progress with Pakistan. As a realist, however, Modi should be aware that major breakthroughs are unlikely amid the current political flux within Pakistan and Sharif’s deteriorating relations with the all-powerful army.

But it is with the other neighbours that Modi has the opportunity to transact much economic and political business in his five-year tenure as prime minister of India. Modi’s determination to pursue a vigorous regional diplomacy appears to rest on five foundations.
For one, Modi has appreciated the much-neglected fact that foreign policy begins at the nation’s borders. India’s traditional diplomatic discourse is obsessed with grand concepts such as non-alignment and the elusive quest for the leadership of the global South.

It has been rather easy for the Indian strategic community to forget the critical importance of tending one’s own neighbourhood in the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean. Worse still, Delhi has been unwilling to confront and address the reasons for the steady loss of Indian influence in the region over the last many decades. An India that fails to reclaim its primacy in the subcontinent, Modi can now see, can’t really make a lasting impression on the world beyond.

Second, Modi has understood the importance of discarding the diplomatic formalism that has bedevilled India’s engagement with the region. Consider, for example, Manmohan Singh’s legacy on regional diplomacy. In his decade-long tenure as PM, Singh was either unwilling or unable to step across the borders to catch up with the leaders next door. Singh travelled for regional summits once each in Dhaka, Colombo, Thimphu and Male. He travelled twice to Kabul and once each to Dhaka and Thimphu on bilateral business. By any measure, this is a dismal diplomatic record.

In inviting the regional leaders for his inauguration, Modi is suggesting that contacts with the neighbours should be made a matter of routine rather than treated as exceptional occasions. In his interactions with the South Asian leaders after the swearing in, Modi must tell them he is ready to visit all neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, at the earliest and will order his cabinet colleagues to do the same. There is some speculation that Modi might respond positively to the request of Sheikh Hasina, the premier of Bangladesh, to make Dhaka his first foreign destination as India’s prime minister.

Third, at the level of substance, Manmohan Singh had a clear vision that India’s destiny is inextricably linked with that of her neighbours. He articulated the case for regional economic integration and took some important initiatives on trade liberalisation and trans-border connectivity. He was also ready to address long-standing issues with neighbouring countries. He came close to signing agreements with Pakistan on the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes and resolving the land boundary agreement with Bangladesh. He also oversaw the back-channel negotiations with Pakistan that apparently produced a framework accord on Kashmir.

But Manmohan Singh was unable to overcome the political resistance within the Congress party to clinch any of these agreements. The Congress leadership would not let the PM travel to Pakistan even once. It caved to pressures from West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and compelled Manmohan Singh to pull back on the very consequential agreements with Dhaka. Yielding to pressures from Tamil Nadu, the Congress leadership prevented the PM from even travelling to Colombo last year for a multilateral summit.

If the Congress put narrow electoral considerations above India’s national interests in the region, Modi seems ready to uphold the Central government’s responsibility to conduct foreign policy. He can easily follow through by clinching the agreements with neighbours that have already been negotiated and are ready for signature. Modi’s rejection of the protests from the BJP’s allies and others in Chennai against the visit of Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa not only underlines India’s new resolve but also improves Delhi’s negotiating leverage with Colombo on the question of Tamil minority rights in Sri Lanka.

Fourth, in inviting the prime minister of Mauritius to the swearing in ceremony, Modi is acknowledging Delhi’s special relationship with the island nation and its Indian diaspora. The new PM is acutely aware of the urgent need to reverse the UPA government’s wanton destruction of this relationship at the very moment when Mauritius was re-emerging as the strategic pivot of the Western Indian Ocean.

Finally, Modi appears to have recognised that India’s ability to deal with great powers like the United States and China will significantly improve only if and when Delhi can reconstitute the geopolitical unity of the subcontinent. For decades, India has complained about US and Chinese strategic partnerships with Pakistan. More recently, India has watched warily as China’s political influence rose rapidly in the subcontinent. Delhi must accept a large portion of the blame for making it easier for outsiders to limit its influence in the region.

Instead of whining about external intervention in the subcontinent, Delhi needs a strategy that builds on India’s natural geographic advantage, economic complementarity, historic role as the regional security provider and a shared cultural inheritance. If Manmohan Singh talked the talk on restoring India’s regional primacy, Modi might have the political will to walk the walk by resolving long-standing political disputes and promoting economic prosperity across the subcontinent.

The writer, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, is contributing editor for ‘The Indian Express’
express@expressindia.com

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First Published on: May 26, 2014 12:36 am
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    Arpita
    May 26, 2014 at 5:04 am
    A very compelling piece on India's foreign policy direction. For a decade IR enthusiasts like me have wondered and have been frustrated on our lethargic foreign policy in which not only were we making new enemies, but also letting our friends slip away. My travels in Nepal made me aware the resentment and disappointment the nepalis have against India, all the while Nepal was considered to be a close sibling. Chinese on the other hand have never been much impressed, and hardly give India a place in their strategic calculations. I hope the new govt will take leaps and bounds when it comes to mending, amending and energising the foreign relations.
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      ashish
      May 26, 2014 at 5:37 am
      A clear majority will definitely help modi to take tough decisions.After many years it would be for first time that regional players will not affect foreign policy.a good sign for india.
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        Ragunath Bhandari
        May 26, 2014 at 2:59 pm
        The New Primer of India by all reasons should make his maiden visit to Nepal as we enjoy very special relationship for ages and it is high time of making course correction on its relationship with Nepal inadvertently misdirected by the erstwhile Congress I government by neglecting its intimate friend-Nepal for a long. Moreover, Nepal as a holy land for devout Hindu should be an ideal place for PM Modi to kick-start his foreign engagement. We all Nepali people, wishing you all the best new PM for your success in your Regional Foreign Policy matters. Good Pasupatinath bless you PM.
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        1. K
          Kobid Timsina
          May 26, 2014 at 12:51 pm
          As a citizen of Nepal, I have bitter observations to policy practices by Indian bureaucracy. Until the policy is run with dynamism and small issues like encroachment of few hundred acres of land along the border, bsf sneaking inside Nepal and beating up poor villagers, interfering on petty issues like pressurising Nepalese pport to be printed in India, selling Insas to army; even giving it for free to stop import of other ault rifle, and HUGE media coverage in issues like this. Never fulfilled promises regarding water management and sharing of benefits in joint hydro projects. Manutive practices in Nepalese politics by Emby in Kathmandu.These small issues are hampering Big achievements and common socio religious bond in between. Else I always feel home travelling to India.
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            s singh
            May 26, 2014 at 3:20 pm
            Agreat foreign policy miscalculation in not inviting Burma'ruler and in cancelling Bharat's military exercise [Indo-Thai military exercise]inThailand--perhaps under Western pressure and this is UPA3 then.
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              s singh
              May 26, 2014 at 3:27 pm
              Yet to see a Prime Minister of this country like Mr.Vladimir Putin.
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                Minal Agarwal
                May 26, 2014 at 7:03 am
                Why is Myanmar not invited?
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                1. राजेन्द्र
                  May 26, 2014 at 1:40 pm
                  Thanks to the auther for his writing, balanced as usual. It would be great if the new govt gets his advise on foreign policies. I also agree with the comment by Minal about Myanmar. Hope Raja Mohan would comment and guide on this too.
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                    Ravi Ranjan
                    May 26, 2014 at 4:18 am
                    Very realistic essment. Raja Mohan is as usual bang on target.
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                      RC
                      May 26, 2014 at 6:16 am
                      Great initiative by new leader. Thinking aloud, it would have been even great had he invited Myanmar (Burma) on this occasion.
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                        wsyed
                        May 26, 2014 at 10:45 pm
                        Underestimating importance of stan is a big mistake in this analysis, not to mention lack of mention of China, the biggest India's neighbour. stan is a gateway to many other countries in the region, an improved relations with stan makes great sense not just for trade possibilities with stan but the entire northwesternern region. That is not to say the seven countries mentioned are not important, the entire Indian subcontinent needs to cooperate and move forward, India in a position to lead.Economic cooperation without reducing political frictions has less promise, so PM Modi has done right to handle the most difficult case first. It would be interesting to see if he has any plans to mend fences with China as well. That will ensure a true peaceful region that can trade and enjoy prosperity without spending hard earned money on armaments to destroy each other.
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