Walking into the jihad trap

Data shows that jihadi terrorism has actually declined

Written by Salman Anees Soz | Published:January 26, 2016 12:20 am
pathankot, pathankot attack, india, terrorism, jihad, jihadi terror, terrorists, muslim terrorists, pakistan terrorists They were just looking for a fight and a speedy dispatch to hell. It is our incompetence that gave them sufficient time to start dreaming of heaven. (File Photo)

How often have you heard statements along the lines of jihadi terrorism posing an existential threat to society? So prevalent has this narrative become that many people take it for granted. Headline-grabbing terrorist attacks carried out by self-styled guardians of Islam fuel this narrative. Ill-informed or agenda-driven opinion-makers, especially on the right, help sustain this dangerous and, frankly, terrorist-friendly narrative that sparks paranoia, prejudice and bigotry. A recent column in The Indian Express by one such opinion-maker, Tavleen Singh, inspired me to put on my researcher’s hat; what I found was a revelation.

In her column, ‘After Pathankot what?’, Singh asserts, “Jihadi terrorism is the biggest threat to civilisation as we know it.” Do such statements have an empirical basis? Should we even question such statements? Is that not being friendly with terrorists or with proponents of radical Islam? I will get to these questions later, but first, based on available evidence, “jihadi terrorism” is not “the biggest threat to civi-lisation as we know it”.

The Global Terrorism Database (GTD), maintained by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Mary-land in the US is the most comprehensive repository of information on terrorism incidents around the world. According to the GTD, between 2000 and 2014, India suffered 6,023 terrorist attacks in which 8,613 persons died. The number of incidents linked to terrorist groups operated by Muslims were 436 (7 per cent of total) and the fatalities were 1,650 (19 per cent of total). Mind you, some of these groups may not necessarily draw inspiration from radical Islam as much as they do from nationalism, as in the case of a few Kashmiri groups. Nevertheless, I lumped all of them together to cast the net as wide as possible to capture this jihadi element.

Some may make the case that jihadi terrorism is a bigger problem now than it was earlier. Well, let’s look at more recent data. In the five-year period from 2010 to 2014, India suffered 3,468 terrorist incidents resulting in 2,515 fatalities. The so-called jihadi terrorists were responsible for 146 such incidents (4 per cent) and 236 fatalities (9 per cent). This suggests that the share of terrorist incidents and fatalities attributed to jihadis has in fact declined.

While jihadi terrorism leaves an indelible mark and creates fear, the numbers are hardly reflective of an existential threat. For the overwhelming majority of Indians, the threat of violence is likely from other sources of terror. But, even for them, terrorism is not an existential threat. US President Barack Obama in his recent State of the Union address may have articulated the real existential threat. While acknowledging the threat posed by terrorism, he was emphatic in stating that climate change was the “greatest threat to future generations”.

Is the terrorism inspired by radical Islam a major problem? Sure. You won’t find much disagreement on such questions. In fact, Muslims around the world are beginning to see the threat radical Islamists pose to, well, themselves. Not only are Muslims the biggest victims of Islamist terrorism in countries like Syria, Iraq and Pakistan, they (or let me say, we) are viewed stereotypically as potential terrorists. Is it any wonder then that a recent Pew Research Centre survey of 11 countries with significant Muslim populations found that people “overwhelmingly expressed negative views of [the] ISIS”? With almost 200 million Muslims in India, a narrative of civilisational conflict is likely to create an environment of mistrust and prejudice, a dream scenario for terrorists. If this is not a recipe for a weaker India, I don’t know what is.

That six terrorists managed to engage us in an air force base in Pathankot for so many days is not because they were superhuman. They were just looking for a fight and a speedy dispatch to hell. It is our incompetence that gave them sufficient time to start dreaming of heaven.

If a bunch of terrorists is all that is required to make India worry about its existence, they have already won. Let me assert that India is one of the biggest economic and military powers in the world. Period. Terrorists, jihadi or otherwise, as an existential threat? It is not even close.

The writer is a national media panellist of the Indian National Congress. Views are personal

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  1. S
    Jan 26, 2016 at 10:53 am
    Mr. Soz uses statistics cleverly to prove that jihadi violence is not an existential threat ! But, existential or otherwise, it is still a potent threat that endangers the existence of non-muslims. And that's why, we should disregard moderates like Mr. Soz, and keep up our efforts at preventing Jihadi violence from happening and ' nuetralizing' jihadi's ...
    1. U
      US NRI
      Jan 26, 2016 at 5:45 am
      It has not declined..it's been brought under control...thanks to power shift from appeasing govt to actionable govt
      1. A
        Ambarish Singh
        Jan 26, 2016 at 4:21 pm
        Having lived in India for the past fifteen years, I find the data churned out by the GTD on India hard to believe. 6023 terror incidents is high by any standard. May be their nomenclature of counting and defining terror attacks is different from us. It wouldnt be prudent to base observations without digging for facts from govt sources. According to NCRB 197 terror incidents have taken place since 1989 till date I agree with Mr Soz on the question of some sections in Kashmiri insurgency woven around Kashmiri nationalism, however it is their alignment with global jihad which provides them the ideological glue, resources and shelter to stick together as well as the audacity to commit dastardly acts against others. Surveys are deceptive and should be taken with a pinch of salt. A survey conducted by a Saudi news channel Al Hayat shows a whopping 92% of the Saudis extending support to the ISIS. A very disturbing statistic given the grip Saudi has in the Islamic world. Jihad is an existential conflict for the Islamic world more than anything else and would certainly bring annihilation for countries and the current world order. It may be tempting to brush it aside but that wont mitigate or brush away this threat. It is high time we took the bull by its horns instead of trying to obfuscate facts and dismiss these threats
      2. A
        Anil Merani
        Jan 26, 2016 at 6:37 am
        if we are milatary powerhouse how come stan gets away despite repeated provocations. is it because we dont mind few deaths every year to faciliate continuted econcomic growth.
      3. A
        Anmol Phutela
        Jan 26, 2016 at 4:33 pm
        And yes happy republic day.
        1. A
          Anmol Phutela
          Jan 26, 2016 at 3:41 pm
          Daily the suspected are being tracked at different places including Bangalore, uttarakhandand goa.yes climate change is the biggest threat for upcoming generations, but for this generation TERRORISM is the biggest threat which must be contained.if not, then there would be no future generations to bear the climate change. WITH DUE RESPECT.
          1. B
            Apr 19, 2016 at 11:30 am
            To all the people in Comment section : You all are nothing but fear mongers whether it is India or US the same Jihadi terror is being fed up the brains of people while evading critical issues of non equality among the mes ,climate change, Oligarchy. But you people will never understand HATE is all that you know and believe in.
            1. G
              Girish Phalke
              Jan 26, 2016 at 7:05 am
              Sure only person realted to congress can write such articles... May be ISIS is an friendly organisation for you people and pathankot was just a mock drill by Indian military.
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