Istanbul’s Sultan

Turkey’s referendum dramatically changed its polity — and its president’s powers

Written by Vedica Kant | Published: April 20, 2017 12:07 am
turkey, turkey referendum, turkey vote, recep tayyip erdogan, turkey news, world news, indian express news, latest news Supporters of the ‘no’ vote, chant slogans during a protest against the referendum outcome, on the Aegean Sea city of Izmir, Turkey, Tuesday, April 18, 2017. Turkey’s main opposition party has filed a formal request seeking Sunday’s referendum to be annulled because of voting irregularities. (AP Photo)

On April 16, Turks voted, by a razor-thin margin, to scrap the country’s parliamentary system for a presidential one and give the current incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sweeping powers. According to the state-run Anadolu News Agency, the “yes” vote stood at 51.41 per cent; the “no” vote was 48.59 per cent. With this victory, Erdogan, who has already helmed power in Turkey for 15 years, could extend his term in office till 2034. Evidently, he is now the most important political figure Turkey has seen since its founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

The referendum is probably the most important moment in Turkey’s history since the country became democratic in 1950. Erdogan has long argued for a presidential system. A failed coup last July, increased civil strife and terrorism gave him the opportunity to make a substantive case for a stronger executive, and build alliances with right-wing parties to push through the referendum. For Erdogan’s critics, the vote was about one man establishing a de-facto dictatorship.

Since 2008 though, Turkey has consistently slid down an authoritarian path. Since 2016’s coup attempt, Turkey has been in a state of emergency. More than 1,00,000 public officials have been purged on accusations of being aligned with Fettulah Gulen, the Islamic preacher who was once Erdogan’s ally, whom he now accuses of masterminding the failed coup. More than 45,000 people have been arrested, journalists and academics especially targeted. The once-robust Turkish media is now little more than a government mouthpiece.

Further, Erdogan has cynically reignited violence in the Kurdish southeast to shore up nationalist support — and cripple the populist pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). More than 2,500 people have been killed since July 2015, and an estimated 5,00,000 displaced in violence in southeastern Turkey. During the referendum, HDP’s charismatic leader, Selahattin Demirtas, was in jail, facing criminal charges that could result in a 143-year prison sentence.

But despite the curtailment of freedoms, the “yes” vote only just squeaked past the post. This is a huge moral defeat for Erdogan, who has always sought legitimacy through his popularity with voters. This narrative has shifted slightly with the referendum — the “no” vote triumphed in major cities, including Istanbul and Ankara, the first time Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost in these areas.

Erdogan’s victory was further tainted by reports of fraudulent ballots and a highly contentious decision by the Higher Election Council (YSK) to allow votes in unsealed enveloped to be counted. The spectre of illegitimacy only points to the weakening and politicisation of Turkey’s core democratic institutions. Opposition groups have appealed the vote’s validity. Its overturning is unlikely.

However, the divisive victory will likely bring out the worst in Erdogan; by all accounts, the failed coup last year made Erdogan extremely intolerant of dissent. The expansive powers the presidency will now give him don’t bode well for any retreat from the harshness characteristic of Turkey’s political environment today. Rather than striking a conciliatory post-poll note, Erdogan said, “There are those who are belittling the result. They shouldn’t try, it will be in vain.”

Erdogan is likely to double down on anyone challenging his rule. The AKP has traditionally been a pro-business, pro-growth party, but with the economy in the doldrums and tourism and construction slowing, popular discontent could grow: Erdogan could combat this by appealing to the basest of nationalist emotions. After the vote, Erdogan signaled the possibility of re-imposing the death penalty in Turkey — which would end Turkey’s long quest for EU membership. The problem, even before Sunday’s referendum, was that Erdogan had acquired too much power. Now, he has even more — it seems unlikely that he will use this in any way other than to prop up his own rule.

 

Kant studied Modern Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oxford. She has written ‘If I die here, who will remember me?: India and the First World War’

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  1. G
    Ganpat
    Apr 22, 2017 at 12:16 am
    Democracy is becoming rightist, no doubt about it. Trump, Erdogan and Modi are examples. The greater danger however is democracy turning into dictatorship. Again, Trump, Erdogan and Modi are capable of making it one..!
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    1. B
      Blah.blah
      Apr 21, 2017 at 5:22 am
      Too many unparliamentary sounds in the name Vedica Kant!
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      1. Seshubabu Kilambi
        Apr 20, 2017 at 7:52 pm
        The Turkey has umed power of despotism through the means of ' democracy ' ..!
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        1. Rohit Chandavarker
          Apr 20, 2017 at 6:01 pm
          The referendum seems like a pyrhhic victory for Recip Teyyip Erdogan. With problems aplenty & mounting, Erdogan hopes to usurp absolute power and confront each of them robustly. The Syrian crisis resulted in waves of refugees flooding Turkey. By playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship, Erdogan seeks to stamp his authority over the region with tenuous links to a host of militant rebels. In his quest for domination over the Kurdish po tion, he is risking the very future of Turkey as a modern & secular republic. His entry into the EU is unlikely to materialise thus creating further problems. The Gulenist purge has left a lot of Turkish seething & rising unemployment means disenchanted youth. Hence what has Erdogan achieved or seeks to achieve by grabbing total power?
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          1. H
            Hedonist
            Apr 20, 2017 at 4:36 pm
            Kurdistan wants azadi from Turkey.
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            1. S
              Sujatha Selvam
              Apr 20, 2017 at 5:39 pm
              What do you want? do you want Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi should support the Kurdish leaders and get them their independent state Kurdistan?
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