The real conflict in Thailand

Is it about the old establishment versus the new, populist challenger? Or about metropolitan conceit versus the aspirations of the rural masses?

Published on:January 25, 2014 3:10 am

TM“I was determined not to waste another minute discussing my country’s failure as a democracy,” says narrator Jimm Juree in The Axe Factor, the latest book in Colin Cotterill’s marvellous crime fiction series set in southern Thailand. Juree, a former crime reporter in a Chiang Mai daily up north, reluctantly helps run her maverick mother’s resort by the sea while on the lookout for crimes to report on a freelance basis. As Bangkok is besieged yet again by political protesters, she is determined to telescope the saga into a single sentence. But what a long sentence it must be, at more than 200 words. Even then, it’s not quite enough, and she must eventually allow herself a few more sentences to make the point that Thailand may well be headed for “civil war”.

Juree, she of Thailand’s north, makes it clear whose side she is on by her choice of words, “a rabble of yellow-shirted yuppie royalists” at that point in her timeline — as now — seeking the banishment of the “rightly aggrieved” red-shirted supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra. Juree’s exasperation is understandable, and it’s been shared widely these past weeks as the yellow and red shirts have refused to blink in a particularly fraught standoff.

Exasperation because, one, it’s not clear that, even in a week when the highly politicised constitutional court ruled that a general election called for February 2 can be delayed, any resolution is in sight to a political conflict that has so totally polarised the country between the sole electable politicians (Thaksin protégés) and the influential royalist-Bangkok establishment. And two, it’s making everyone tiresomely repetitive, because to capture the possibly disastrous consequences that could accrue in terms of paralysing Bangkok, sparking extended violence in the capital city and beyond, even a civil, if not a class, war, one must necessarily return the narrative to the beginning each time.

It’s important to do so. Thailand, you could argue, is the test case for political scientist Larry Diamond’s contention that “the (East Asian) region may actually represent, even more than the Middle East, the next frontier for a significant wave of democratic transitions”.

In brief, in the 1990s, Bangkok’s middle classes fought a feisty and ultimately successful battle to bring genuinely representative democracy into a political system effectively controlled by the royal court and the military. The first such government to take power on the basis of the 1997 constitution was telecom magnate Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party in 2001. He staggered the Bangkok establishment, and eventually its middle classes, by bypassing them and making a connect with the rural masses and other emergent elites, especially in the north, through a series of what they derided as populist measures, his microcredit and cheap healthcare schemes. He won easy re-election in 2005, showing the numbers remained with him, and the challenge to Bangkok’s monarchy-military-middle-classes-powered establishment was obvious. Bangkok had by now withdrawn electoral support to Thaksin, and began to actively lobby against him. …continued »

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