Across the aisle: Summer of 2014 to autumn of 2017

How did we go from the great expectations of the summer of 2014 to the disappointing autumn of 2017?

Written by P Chidambaram | Updated: October 1, 2017 8:49 am
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Arun Jaitley news, Indian Economy, yashwant sinha, yashwant sinha economy, yashwant sinha article, government steps to boost economy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, demonetisation, narendra modi, pm modi, economy, demonetisation, bjp, India news, National news, Indian express, express column, chidambaram column Naturally, the government is red-faced and livid and is pulling out all the stops to heap ridicule and abuse.

I did not set the cat among the pigeons. In fact, my grievance was that nothing that more knowledgeable persons (leave aside my views) wrote or said seemed to have any effect on the government and its management of the economy. A course correction was not effected or even hinted at. On the contrary, the government steadfastly and stubbornly maintained that “God is in heaven and all’s well with the world”.

Quite unexpectedly, Mr Yashwant Sinha wrote a centre page article in The Indian Express on September 27, 2017. I did not rush to endorse him, I simply pointed out that Mr Sinha had said the same things that many others and I had been saying for 15 months.

Mr Sinha Agrees

Let’s look at the main points of Mr Sinha’s article (and how they coincided with the views I had expressed in this column on the dates mentioned below):
1. that the BJP/NDA government got an unprecedented oil bonanza that was wasted (January 14, 2016)
2. that private investment has shrunk as never before in two decades (January 15, 2017)
3. that industrial production has all but collapsed (June 11)
4. that exports have dwindled (January 1)
5. that demonetisation has proved to be an unmitigated disaster (September 3)
6. that a badly conceived and poorly implemented GST has played havoc with businesses and sunk many of them
(July 2)
7. that countless millions have lost their jobs with hardly any new opportunities coming the way of the new entrants to the labour market (April 9)
8. that the growth rate of 5.7 per cent is actually 3.7 per cent or less

Naturally, the government is red-faced and livid and is pulling out all the stops to heap ridicule and abuse.

The Promise Belied

The summer of 2014 held great promise. The BJP was the first party in 30 years to form a government with an absolute majority. It inherited an economy that had accelerated from 5.5 per cent in 2012-13 to 6.4 per cent in 2013-14 (the government’s numbers). Inflation had begun a steady decline from 10.5 per cent in September 2013 (thanks to breaching the fiscal deficit and expenditure limits) to 5.77 per cent in June 2014. The current account deficit had been contained at 0.24 per cent in the quarter January-March 2014. The stage had been set for bold structural reforms. The so-called ‘legacy’ problems is a fake argument. Every government will inherit some issues and it is expected that the government will address them.

Fast forward 40 months.

The autumn of 2017 presents a bleak picture. Economic growth decelerated to 5.7 per cent in April-June 2017; CAD climbed up to 2.4 per cent in that quarter; industrial productions shrunk by 0.17 per cent in June and grew by a paltry 1.2 per cent in July; and an estimated 1.5 million jobs were lost between January and April 2017.

How did we go from the great expectations of the summer of 2014 to the disappointing autumn of 2017? We cannot blame global economic conditions because they have been benign. Actually, according to the IMF, after 3.2 per cent growth in 2016, the global economy is poised to grow at 3.5 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018. Besides, crude oil prices remain low at USD 58.30 per barrel.

It is pointless listing the causes once again. Let me examine the deeper reasons behind the apparent incapability of the government to tackle the causative factors.

The Deeper Reasons

Firstly, the absence of a deliberative and inclusive process of decision-making. All authority is concentrated in the Prime Minister’s Office. The model may have worked in Gujarat (which I doubt) but it will certainly not work in a federal set-up and when there are so many ministries and departments, autonomous authorities, regulators and adjudicatory bodies and courts.

Secondly, the bench strength of the BJP. If talent is available, why saddle a minister with multiple portfolios?

Thirdly, by the accounts we hear, the present Cabinet is not a deliberative body. It is more like the Cabinet of a President that will meekly endorse the decisions taken elsewhere. Example: demonetisation. When a Cabinet does not function as a Cabinet, good ideas will not take root and bad ideas will not be stopped.

Fourthly, the government failed to build a credible economic policy team at the beginning of its term. At any given time, there should be at least half-a-dozen internationally reputed economists in the larger government system. Nor did the government place economist-civil servants in key positions in the administration. The government did not wish to retain Dr Raghuram Rajan and could not retain Dr Arvind Panagariya. While Dr Arvind Subramanian has reluctantly agreed to stay on for one more year, it is anybody’s guess if he will actually do so.

Fifthly, there is no accountability. A well-intentioned but failed minister of railways has been made minister of industry and commerce. The engine of exports was sputtering, yet the minister of commerce is the new minister of defence. The redeeming feature is Mr Suresh Prabhu is an honest gentleman and Ms Nirmala Sitharaman’s appointment is a blow for women’s empowerment and breaks an unjust glass ceiling.

Finally, it is possible to infer that the BJP believes it has forged an election-winning (UP) and/or deal-making (Bihar) formula and hence it need not worry about performance or outcomes.

I don’t really care about the deeper reasons as long as the government will acknowledge the causes of the economic slowdown and address them.

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  1. प्रसाद
    Oct 3, 2017 at 11:47 am
    Mr. Chidambaram may be right in what he said, but he has lost the moral right to say so … given the ED actions against his son. His argument is also questionable. (1) He gives certain statistics to argue that present govt inherited a sound economy. Statistics related to economy is like a world famous abstract painting of a great artist … experts can read anything they want in it, while common man cannot understand a bit of it. We saw how Lalu turned Railway into a profitable enterprise and gave lectures on it in global management ins utes of great repute. Next railway minister said all that was a number jugglery and that railways were deep in red! (2) He refers to lack of ‘deliberative and inclusive process of decision-making’. Did we ever have such a process? The word of the ‘high command’ and critical vote through the whip had been the culture all along. Rahulji even tore apart the govt ordinance right in front of the then Prime Minister. So much for the ‘inclusive process’!
    1. Atul Agarwal
      Oct 2, 2017 at 5:28 pm
      Sad NDA govt stab back the core supporters under the impression that new social base will support. Anyway no use counselling this govt. Face till 2019.
      1. R
        Oct 2, 2017 at 3:33 pm
        Fair evaluation of the present state of the economy the contributory factors. Also the ground realities that do not augur well for a positive quick turnaround at the macro level. With everyone in the BJP it's well known cohorts either in denial mode on the current malaise, or trying to play good cop/ bad cop, we are headed for a ' very long bone chilling devastating winter of sorts' unless something revolutionary emerges from the ruling dispensation. Citizens apathy cannot be mistaken for implied consent of State incompetence failure.
        1. Vaarun M
          Oct 2, 2017 at 8:23 am
          compare it with upa rule ending 2014 and today, much better off, 3 years and no corruption to talk about.. BTW hows karti doin
          1. R
            Ramesh Nittoor
            Oct 2, 2017 at 5:11 am
            The so-called ‘legacy’ problems is a fake argument. --- Conveniently underestimated NPAs, which consequently is increasing every month is not fake. The 40 plus percent of economy being legally non-compliant, not just in terms of tax laws, also pollution control laws, labor laws, is not fake. The tumultuous process of change to acquire charachteristics of a developed economy, with its roadmap for formalization will go on irrespective and hopefully shall succeed for India. If it does not, Congress leaders like PC who are preparing to be fallback option are within their legitimate option of profiting from such a failure by being critical of it. This improvment effort to increase integrity coefficient of Indian economy is crucial for Make in India. Indian manufacturing will gain momentum rapidly. The apt metaphor may be the relativisitic equation. Which is root of inverse of one minus square of integrity coefficient. India ought to aim for this or may be a Boson condensation effect.
            1. V
              Oct 3, 2017 at 1:32 am
              Indian products, except for textile, simply doesn't make the cut. Indians just can't make quality products these days. they are great at jugaad, but this mindset just cannot have exceptional outcomes.
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