Across the aisle: Bad ideas will drive out the good

The MPC’s statement, with unanimous support, is significant not only for the cut in the policy repo rate but also for the analysis of the economic situation.

Written by P Chidambaram | Updated: October 9, 2016 5:27 am
RBI, RBI rate cut, RBI repo rate, rbi policy review, rbi policy, urjit patel, rbi repo rate, rbi rate cut, indian express Reserve Bank of India

We have a new Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, we have a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), and we have their first statement on monetary policy. It is tempting to read the tea leaves!

The MPC’s statement, with unanimous support, is significant not only for the cut in the policy repo rate but also for the analysis of the economic situation. The statement has come at the end of the first half of the fiscal year and, therefore, it is helpful to understand the state of the economy at the mid-point of the fiscal year which is also the mid-point of the term of the Central government.

On the global economy, the outlook is gloomy. Growth has slowed more than anticipated, trade has contracted more sharply, there is rising protectionism, and “an uneasy calm prevails on uncertainty about the stance of monetary policy of systemic central banks”.

State of the economy

On the domestic economy,
* “the outlook for agricultural activity has brightened;
* “the industrial sector has suffered a manufacturing-driven contraction;
* “inflation excluding food and fuel has been sticky around 5 per cent, mainly in respect to education, medical and personal care services;
* “in the manufacturing sector, the persistence of considerable slack…;
* “in the external sector, merchandise exports contracted in the first two months of Q2;
* “subdued domestic demand was reflected in a faster contraction in imports;
* “the decline in remittances and the flattening of software earnings warrants monitoring;
* “while the pace of foreign direct investment slowed compared to a year ago, portfolio flows were stronger.”

These conclusions were visible in the numbers that we had read in the last 12 months or more. Let me give only a few figures and say it in a way that is easy to understand:

* In Q1 of 2016-17, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (that is additional capital investment) declined by 3.1 per cent compared to same period of the previous year.

* In Q1 of 2016-17, net sales of all firms declined by 1.9 per cent and of manufacturing firms by 4.8 per cent over Q1 of 2015-16.

* During February-July 2016, credit to all sectors increased by a modest 9.5 per cent, but credit to ‘industry’ grew by only 1.72 per cent over same period last year. Credit to micro and small industries declined by 3.46 per cent and credit to medium industries declined by 10.62 per cent.

* The Index of Industrial Production for all industries during February-July 2016 increased by a mere 0.25 per cent, while for manufacturing it declined by 1.01 per cent over same period last year.

* Non-Performing Assets of banks stood at 7.6 per cent as against 4.6 per cent at the end of the previous year.

The ground reality

Now you know why there is no visible job-creation, why there is anxiety among parents, and why there is anger among the youth. Now you know why the job-creators (exporters and micro, small and medium industries) have thrown up their hands in despair. Now you know why the large business houses are investing abroad rather than in India.

It is not as if the government is doing nothing right. The government was on the right track when it affirmed its commitment to fiscal consolidation. It is doing the right thing in selling its stake in chronically loss-making public sector enterprises. It is pursuing the right strategy in pushing more investment into infrastructure, especially roads and railways. However, these measures will not be enough unless the private sector — big, medium and small — re-discovers its appetite for investment. That, unfortunately, is not happening.

Poor aggregate demand is the main reason for low investment. That ‘doing business in India’ has not become easier (despite the hype about climbing a few notches in the ranking ladder) is another crucial reason. Regulators have once again turned into controllers and have churned out reams of rules and regulations that are frightening. Investigating agencies, including the investigation wings of tax departments, have unleashed a wave of threats and terror. Litigation in commercial matters, often involving the government, has reached alarming proportions with no effective alternative dispute resolution mechanism. State governments seem to have lost interest in ‘reforms’ and seem happier pursuing ‘welfarism’.

Government losing its nerve

This is the time when the government should not lose its nerve or its focus. Unfortunately, there are signs that the government is looking for a short-term boost — increase spending to boost growth in the short-term and lure the people to be mesmerised by the dazzle of the number 7.6 (of GDP growth).

What else can one make of the government’s mandate to a committee to explore the feasibility of “flexible” fiscal deficit-targeting? And what else can one make of the first sign of “flexible” inflation-targeting that has emerged out of the statement of the MPC? Why did Governor Urjit Patel push back the deadline for achieving the inflation target from March 2018 to an unspecified “medium term”?

Both are very bad ideas. I hope the N K Singh committee will junk the idea of a flexible fiscal deficit target and recommend that the government should under no circumstances — except in a case of a declared war — breach the limit of 3 per cent for the fiscal deficit. I also hope that in the next policy statement Governor Patel will restore the RBI’s stance on inflation and re-affirm that the deadline for achieving the inflation target will remain at March 2018.

Website: pchidambaram.in @Pchidambaram_IN

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  1. H
    Hemant Kumar
    Oct 9, 2016 at 1:45 am
    Railway budget has been done away with, release date of annual general budget has been advanced by one month, MPC has been consuted, bankruptcy code has been made, voluntary black money declaration has been more effective than Chidambaram's, foreign route of money trail for tax Haven/ evasion have been busted, Bank board for NPA resolution under Vinod Rai has been consuted, other measures cannot be mentioned here as space will fall short.. This is the tailor, actual movie is yet to come. Chidambaram during his tenure, was only thinking of making the movie of his son.
    Reply
    1. K
      Kavitha
      Oct 9, 2016 at 9:36 am
      Yes, that is why corrupt editors and corrupt columnists must stop polluting the media with their bad ideas.
      Reply
    2. M
      Manonmanian
      Oct 9, 2016 at 1:13 am
      Most realistic picture provided by the leader who has led this country during its top economic performance. These great insights paint the truest picture for the benefit of all. You can ignore it only to your own peril. The present government lacking talents, is running like headless chickens but clucking nevertheless, is also clueless on economic management. Failure and non-performance on all fronts. The down slide has started for them except for the blind mobs of upper caste upper strata wallahas. Please learn from the greatest minds of the nation. Unfortunately you do not have the neuronal circuits to do that.
      Reply
      1. O
        Ocean
        Oct 9, 2016 at 2:30 am
        Chidambaram, writes the article and ask his chamchas to write reviews as"eye opener" ,"great person" etc. Otherwise India is fed up with this who engulfed many people 's food and now doing lecture bazi
        Reply
        1. T
          Trichiharan
          Oct 9, 2016 at 12:59 am
          A rigorous economic discipline will only ensure a safe future for the nation. Euphoria, hypes, rhetoric will help no government in the long run besides giving them an ineffective anesthesia for a time being. If fiscal inflation targets are breached, that will only help congress to come back to power since in the present situation of job less non-growth an succinctly explained that will be last thing people will be able to tolerate. The hall mark of the Tallest leader is economic prudence. You are the greatest epitome of this. The nation needs you back at the top to take it forward. Thanks sir for an excellent article.
          Reply
          1. T
            Trichyhar
            Oct 9, 2016 at 1:22 am
            Indeed an realistic eye opener of an article which will only greatly help the government and the people. By not following this wise advise, the government is once again going to shoot itself on its foot again. Sir so please continue to share the great ideas wihich are too good for this government. They will continue to ignore it and shoot themselves on their foot. That is a very positive election strategy for 2019. Thanks sir
            Reply
            1. O
              observer
              Oct 9, 2016 at 8:44 am
              Unbelievable that the 6 member MPC had a unanimous decision to cut interest rates, reduce the real return for savers, and ignore the high inflation rate for the ordinary citizen, whose food, and daily services are inflating way beyond 10%. RBI in one stroke his lost its credibility of being independent.
              Reply
              1. A
                Arun
                Oct 9, 2016 at 3:11 am
                s chup!!!!
                Reply
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