Wednesday, Oct 01, 2014

On inflation watch

The target itself is a bone of contention. The target itself is a bone of contention.
Written by Parth Phiroze Mehrotra | Posted: February 10, 2014 12:14 am

 

The RBI’s move towards becoming an inflation targeting central bank, evident after the third quarter monetary policy review, is welcome. The policy review indicated the governor’s broad, implicit agreement with the Urjit Patel committee report on the framework of monetary policy. The report specified the nominal anchor of monetary policy — CPI inflation — and the policy instruments to be used over time. It also specified the target rate of inflation and a temporal roadmap for how to hit it.

The target itself is a bone of contention. Most economists agree that a certain amount of inflation is a necessary evil. In this case, however, some are worried that it is too low, that the structural constraints in the economy will not allow the RBI to achieve the target without significant monetary tightening. It has been pointed out that, given the average rate of food inflation over the past eight years (10 per cent), non-food inflation will have to be brought down to 2 per cent in order to achieve CPI inflation of 6 per cent (the report’s proposed target for 2016). But the optimal rate of inflation is an open question and a matter of judgement — there is no “right” answer. For instance, Olivier Blanchard et al (2010) wonder whether the additional flexibility that monetary policy has to deal with shocks at higher rates of inflation may mean a 4 per cent target is preferable to a 2 per cent one for advanced economies. Also, the concern that the non-food inflation required to support the RBI’s target is too “low” points towards the intertwining of monetary and fiscal policy. A monetary policy is only as good as the fiscal policy that supports it. In this instance, it’s up to the government to set the supply problems in agriculture right in order for food inflation to ease up.

Others worry that measurement problems with the CPI mean it should not be the metric of inflation used by the RBI. This, too, is not a principled stand against inflation targeting. The goal of using CPI to measure inflation itself is unexceptionable and brings the RBI in line with international best practice.

The report has touched off a larger debate about what a central bank’s role should be, particularly regarding the RBI’s mandate on growth. But there is no trade-off between inflation and growth in the long run. If anything, high and unstable inflation is a drag on growth. For commentators concerned about the constriction of the RBI’s discretion in setting monetary policy, game-theoretic models of central bank incentives may have the answer. In the absence of commitment, it can shown that there will be an “inflation bias” — that is, in spite of declaring an inflation target, the rate of inflation that finally results will be higher than the target, with no corresponding benefit for national output. continued…

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