Indian Express

Out of my mind: Not all over yet

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Of the three aspirants, Jayalalithaa is likely to get 30 seats or more as of now, more than Mayawati or Mamata. Of the three aspirants, Jayalalithaa is likely to get 30 seats or more as of now, more than Mayawati or Mamata.

I learnt my lesson about elections in 1992. Labour was expected to win and the Chief Whip on our side took me as a junior whip, along with other whips, in the House of Lords and showed us where our new offices were going to be. I was going to be on the government payroll so I would have to give up my job at the LSE for which I made arrangements. Alas, Labour lost the election and I continued as before. That taught me the truth of the opera adage: “It ain’t over till the fat lady sings”.

While waiting for the fat lady (note to EC — this is not a reference to any candidate of any  party or minority or majority) to sing and bring an end to the suspense on May 16, it may yet be time to think of the other possible prime ministers in the race for 2014. This time, the electorate has a rich array of possible candidates for the top job with three women among them — Jayalalithaa, Mayawati and Mamata. All three have experience as chief ministers of big states and Mamata has experience as a Cabinet minister at the Centre as well.

Each of them has a scenario in which somehow Modi and/or BJP falter at the last minute and the race for the top is left wide open. Each hopes to have a bag of 25-plus seats with which to bargain for the top slot. This is another reason why the 2014 election is so unprecedented. There has never been greater certainty among the opinion polls and more uncertainty among the political classes.

The scenario which each aspirant has is different, but goes something like this. After May 16, the BJP is the single largest party, but, even with NDA partners, has got below 200 seats.  There is a gap of 75. In comes J/M/M offering their bag of 25 or maybe 30 seats. They promise to bring in more ‘secular’ partners. But on one condition: no Modi as prime minister. Of the three aspirants, Jayalalithaa is likely to get 30 seats or more as of now, more than Mayawati or Mamata. She may also be more acceptable to the BJP than the other two.

The scenario for Mayawati or Mamata is that the BJP tries to go it alone with only its core NDA partners, but fails to win the vote in Lok Sabha, like in1996. The President would then have to call the Congress to try its hand. There seems to be dispute in the Congress about this. But let us suppose the hunger for power wins over principles (as always). Then, there may be a large ‘third party’ continued…

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