No Proof Required: Believe it, GDP data is right

Those who have seriously questioned it owe an apology to the CSO for doubting its authenticity and the integrity of the statisticians

Written by Surjit S Bhalla | Updated: February 22, 2016 4:48 am
gdp, cso, gdp growth, nda govt gdp, fy2015 gdp, india gdp, china gdp, business news, India, india trade data, India industrial growth, India latest news One of the major results of the new GDP series was that the growth in the year preceding the election, FY14, was jacked up from a previous 4.7 per cent estimate to a respectable 6.9 per cent (later revised to 6.6 per cent).

Ever since the new GDP data was released in January 2015, most economists, in the government and outside it, have been more than sceptical. With the release of the advance estimates of the GDP for fiscal year 2015-16 (FY 2016), which showed the GDP growing at 7.6 per cent, the crescendo of criticism has reached new heights.

I will show below that this criticism and/ or scepticism is completely unwarranted, and that those who have seriously questioned the GDP data owe apologies to the Central Statistical Office (CSO) for doubting the authenticity of the data and the integrity of the statisticians.

The setting up of a GDP review exercise in India (under the “guidance” of the UN and the IMF) is a pre-planned exercise and conducted every decade or so. In May 2014, India had a national election in which there were only two themes — first, high inflation and low growth, and second, corruption. One of the major results of the new GDP series was that the growth in the year preceding the election, FY14, was jacked up from a previous 4.7 per cent estimate to a respectable 6.9 per cent (later revised to 6.6 per cent).

There are four reasons that explain the presence of the doubting Thomases. First, India’s growth could not be just inches below China’s; it had to be several feet below. Second, India couldn’t, by definition, grow faster than China. There has been a rapid decline in China’s GDP growth rate, from double-digit levels that prevailed for 32 years (1980-2011) to a sudden drop since FY12. The new GDP numbers for India are 6.6 per cent in FY14 (below China’s 7.3 per cent) and 7.2 per cent in FY15 (way above China’s 6.9 per cent). Hence, the only safe conclusion was that the data was not telling the truth.

The third important reason for doubt was purely political. The CSO was being told, according to some doubters, by the Narendra Modi government, in that ever so conspiratorial way, to massage the data.

The fourth reason may be the most important explanation. For quite some time now, the world has been gripped by deflation, or at least declining inflation. India’s GDP deflator (implicit price index), too, has been falling. It touched a historic low of negative 1.0 per cent in FY16. Given this fact, herewith some strong evidence that GDP growth for FY16 may even be higher than that claimed by the CSO.

Nominal non-food bank credit has been creeping up in FY16 and places the real credit growth in the first quarter of FY16 as the eighth fastest rate in the last nine years and the highest rate since Q2 of FY11. Further, few have marked that quantity of oil imports is up a healthy 8.3 per cent. This is the seventh highest April-December rate since the beginning of the high growth period in FY04, and near identical to the average growth rate of 8.5 per cent for the same period.

None of these statistics however, are convincing for the real doubter. The Wall Street Journal, in an article dated February 10, boldly headlined “5 charts that show India might be overstating its growth”. The article asserted that growth was “nowhere near as strong as the data suggest [7.6 per cent] and that other performance indicators show the economy is still struggling to gain momentum. The government made some major changes in the way it measures GDP in January last year, which resulted in a bump in growth rates and presented a much rosier economic picture”.

A major item on everyone’s list (excluding the lazy economist’s citation of low export growth, again, an item messed up by disinflation) is that manufacturing is much weaker than what the data indicate. Prior to the GDP revision, India relied on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to estimate growth in manufacturing. Since last year, the CSO has moved to the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) balance sheet database for an aggregate of over 5,00,000 companies (versus a few hundred contained in the IIP data). Surely, a big improvement in coverage.

However, till date, there is no explanation for this, and I believe there cannot be an adequate explanation why the CSO has refused to release these data. Unless the MCA database is released, regardless of the evidence, the CSO data will be (correctly) treated with suspicion: Hah, you are not releasing the data because you have something to hide.

The IIP data shows a 3 per cent real growth for manufacturing between April and December while the CSO data suggests that real growth was 9.5 per cent and nominal growth was 8.1 per cent. Growth in value added is what the GDP accounts measure — and nominal value added growth is approximately equal to a weighted average of profits and wages. Labour compensation accounts for a significant proportion (almost 90 per cent) of total output, and this has grown at an 8.5 per cent rate in FY16; median profits for a sample of 120 manufacturing companies (BSE 500) rose by 18 per cent. This suggests that value added, in nominal terms, has grown at a 9.5 per cent rate.

The CSO estimate is based on 70 per cent balance sheet growth for organised manufacturing and 30 per cent for the unorganised sector; for this latter component, IIP growth is the proxy used by the CSO. The CSO price deflator for manufacturing is minus 1.4 per cent. Hence, our estimate of real manufacturing growth is (0.7 x (9.5 + 1.4) + (.30 x 3)) or 8.5 per cent vs CSO 9.5 per cent — close!

So I end this discussion with two pleas. First, the CSO should release the MCA database. Second, the harsh critics of the new GDP data should tender an apology to the CSO.

 

The write is contributing editor, ‘The Indian Express’, and senior India analyst, The Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group

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  1. H
    hiphop
    Feb 22, 2016 at 6:02 am
    Brutal disinformation !
    Reply
    1. A
      Anon
      Feb 22, 2016 at 3:29 am
      If we want 10% growth we will need to revise the methodology one more time.
      Reply
      1. B
        Binay Mahanta
        Feb 22, 2016 at 5:19 pm
        The article header says, “No Proof Required: Believe it, GDP data is right.” Based on this text I expected only the GDP data calculation. But its word statistics revealed a different story. In this article the author gives an introduction, then gives four reasons of the doubting Thomases, next he explains more to disprove doubting Thomases and then he gives the GDP data calculation and finally comes the conclusion. Introduction paragraph = 209 (number of words) Four reasons of the doubting Thomases = 198 More to disprove doubting Thomases = 334 GDP data calculation = 193 Conclusion paragraph = 32 Only 193 words for GDP calculation!! This is even smaller than the introduction!! I hope the actual GDP calculation done by government doesn't have this fallacy.
        Reply
        1. J
          Jerome Cruz
          Feb 22, 2016 at 6:59 pm
          Way back in 2008 people have seen what GDP growth is like when we talk 7%. Labour simply was not available. Even the most unskilled man would pack himself as painter or semi skilled person.
          Reply
          1. R
            rakesh
            Feb 22, 2016 at 7:49 pm
            I like Mr. Bhalla's articles backed by sound data and analysis. Yes The problem with left liberals and their elk is they are unable to digest policies of Mr Modi and they will go to any length to discredit the achievements of this government.
            Reply
            1. S
              Suvam
              Feb 23, 2016 at 4:22 am
              I did not get the logic - yes, I am thick. So please clarify (anyone is welcome to do this). When Mr. Bhalla himself says that the CSO has not released data and apparently there is no justification for them to do so, is it ok for others to accept the numbers? This portion of his argument seemed contradictory. However, it may be that I am failing to see something
              Reply
              1. K
                Kraparticle
                Feb 22, 2016 at 5:59 am
                FK with your article. How dare you write such a KRAP that has no basis or statistics or even a chart other than your opinionated statements and you ask for apology.
                Reply
                1. P
                  PMO
                  Feb 22, 2016 at 5:46 am
                  Professional blogger Surjit Balla... Blah. Blah. This far t cle written by Pimp Management Office.
                  Reply
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