Next Door Nepal: Delhi’s course correction

Swaraj, who was in Kathmandu to attend the BIMSTEC ministerial-level meeting, spent a substantial part of her two-day visit with Nepali actors including Deuba. The message she tried to convey was India wanted a constructive engagement with Nepal and erase the image of an “external micro-manager”.

Written by Yubaraj Ghimire | Published:August 14, 2017 12:02 am
Sher Bahadur Deuba, Sushma Swaraj, india nepal relations, sushma swaraj in kathmandu, nepal pm visit india, BIMSTEC, narendra modi, madhesi leaders, Rastriya Janata Party, indian express news, india news Swaraj told Deuba that Prime Minister Modi was eager to welcome him in India. Express Photo by Tashi Tobgyal

Nepal and India need to enhance connectivity and bring the two sides closer, including the minds of people, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba told Sushma Swaraj, India’s external affairs minister, during their 20-minute group meeting on Wednesday, which was followed by a one-on-one that lasted 10 minutes.

That one sentence reflects the current state of bilateral relations, a legacy of civilisation, culture, history and geography both sides have actively undermined in the past decade. Swaraj, who was in Kathmandu to attend the BIMSTEC ministerial-level meeting, spent a substantial part of her two-day visit with Nepali actors including Deuba. The message she tried to convey was India wanted a constructive engagement with Nepal and erase the image of an “external micro-manager”.

Swaraj told Deuba that Prime Minister Modi was eager to welcome him in India. Her advice to the Madhesi leaders, all of them from the Rastriya Janata Party, which is now unhappy with both Delhi and Kathmandu, was to participate in the local bodies poll that is to be followed by elections to the provinces and the federal parliament between mid-September and late January next year.

Deuba said these elections will be crucial milestones — proof of the execution of the constitution that India officially has only “taken note of” and not welcomed. The participation of the RJP in the election at India’s behest marks a reversal of its earlier policy of poll boycott, which too was backed by Delhi. Delhi’s change of course on the Madhesi stance could be a tactical decision and not a complete rejection of its previous stand. It may have been influenced by the stand-off with China and the realisation in Delhi that the unprecedented level of anti-India feeling in Nepal could become counter productive.

The Indian stance on the constitution and the economic blockade that followed the Madhesi protests after September 2015 are the two issues that created the anti-India feeling in Nepal. The crisis also allowed key Nepali actors to push through the hastily prepared constitution without following due process.

Less than 20 months after the statute was promulgated, the CPN (Maoist Centre), the second largest party in the ruling coalition and the third largest group in parliament, fears that the Nepali Congress headed by Deuba and the main Opposition, the CPN-Unified Marxist Leninist, may gang up to restore the monarchy and Nepal’s Hindu nation status. “If they get a chance, they will bring monarchy back. But they will first declare Nepal a Hindu country again,” CPN (Maoist Centre) head and former PM, Pushpa Kamal Dahal said recently.

The development indicates the growing distrust among the ruling coalition partners, the Nepali Congress and the Maoists. Dahal’s apprehensions may also have to do with Deuba’s India visit next week and Delhi’s visible rollback of its support to the radical agenda of forces like the Maoists. During their visits to Delhi prior to the promulgation of the constitution, both Dahal and Deuba were advised by senior BJP leaders and authorities in the government to at least avoid mentioning Nepal as a “secular country” if restoring the “Hindu status” was not immediately possible. The CPN (Maoist Centre) had vetoed such a move. But with radical political parties and their agenda losing public support, and India reluctant to patronise them, Nepal’s politics and constitution may be in for big changes.

The Nepali people were denied a role in “deciding” crucial issues, including whether the country should stay with the monarchy or opt for republicanism, adopt federalism or a decentralised unitary system of governance, turn secular or continue as a Hindu state. This is the singular reason for the people’s lack of ownership in the current constitution. Much of the radical agenda originally belonged to the Maoists, but was adopted by the leaderships of the Nepali Congress and the Madhesi groups when all three outfits got to share power after 2006. The period after the adoption of the radical agenda saw Nepali political actors and Indian babus micro-managing Nepal’s politics. This phase destabilised Nepal and cost India the goodwill it used to command.

Swaraj also met Madhav Nepal, former PM and leader of UML, a party perceived to have pushed Nepal into China’s lap when its chief K.P. Oli was the PM. Both leaders agreed that there was a great need to dispel the “misunderstandings” that cloud the bilateral relations. For that to happen, India will have to persuade the top Nepali political actors — the Nepali Congress, Maoists, UML and Madhesi groups — to review the radical agenda they adopted under India’s mediation in November 2005, and involve people directly in settling the issues once and for all. If India asks for a larger role for Nepali people in shaping the political course and the constitution, not only will the political process and the statute gain in credibility but a fair amount of the negative feelings towards India will also be dispelled.

If Swaraj’s outreach is the sign of a new beginning, Nepal-India relations can hope to be on the right track in the near future.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com

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  1. K
    Kirk Afle
    Aug 15, 2017 at 7:42 am
    Unfortunate that the turn around from Indian South Block came a bit too late. It should be mindful that it does not further inflict pain to people who, at this moment do not believe that turn around is indeed coming from leadership heart, and would distrust any action even if it is well intended. India has lost the greater Trust from the Nepalese mass. And few generations will be required to clean the strongly etched scar on their mindset.
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      Durga Prasad
      Aug 16, 2017 at 3:57 pm
      Does India need to wait for change in heart? Does it have time to wait? India will have to forget Nepal and let it slip into the lap of China in order to maintain its strength. It is better to make more enemies than friends who are ready to bite any moment. Indian diplomacy should be stern not mew...mew rather roaring.
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      KNeupane
      Aug 15, 2017 at 6:44 am
      Most people are carried away with emotions and stick to just what they want to believe but in real political world it is the strategic national interest that counts in international relations, and nations adjust the conduct. This does not change the realities it is only a tactic only. Substantial change would require ' Give and Take' Nothing else and politics is not about euphoric euphemism. With the trade blockade of Nepal by India and former PM Oli's chartered diplomacy based on ultra-nationalism has significantly contributed to polarization of Nepali intelligentsia and population than at the time of regime change in Kathmandu through mass movement.
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        Rohit Chandavarker
        Aug 14, 2017 at 11:22 pm
        There seems to be realisation in Delhi that India needs to turn into an honest hand holder to help Nepal traverse through the maze of political quagmire. This change of tack may be linked to the growing influence of China on Nepal's political future. As is its wont, China is enthusiastically pushing its cheque book diplomacy with a view to loosen the umbilical chord that binds Nepal India. India would have to use sagacity wisdom to manoeuvre itself through the Nepali political class populace to recoup its lost goodwill.
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          Durga Prasad
          Aug 14, 2017 at 8:55 pm
          There is no need for India to to appease anyone. She has to strengthen her borders and sovereignty instead. Nepal will always resort to blackmailing India on a pretext or the other. Shushma Ji knows it well. Anti India mood in Napal will always prevail. So let's forget Nepal and think of our own poor.
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          1. S
            Seshubabu Kilambi
            Aug 14, 2017 at 8:02 pm
            Signs of oppirtunism
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            1. D
              Dirgha Raj
              Aug 14, 2017 at 7:55 pm
              Nepal and India are only the two pious Hindu countries in the world. We Nepalese always wanted to maintain cordial and harmonious relation with India. But, Congress (I) had been conspiring internally to bring us pain and destroy the originality of Hindu and Hinduism. So, we were suspicious with Congress (I) (Sonia Gandhi) and RAW's intervention in Nepal. We don’t have bitter feelings towards Indian people as well. To keep intact Hinduism in Nepal and India and to maintain harmonious relation with Nepal, BJP should propose to restore the Hindu Kingdom in the world with cons utional monarchy. Since, 2006 Nepal’s situation has been further deteriorating. The American intelligence agency CIA and the Christian nations from Europe have been spending billions of Dollars to convert poor Nepalese Hindu into Christian state. Nepal must be restored Hindu Kingdom with cons utional monarchy with respect.We are confident that Modi led government will play a constructive and diplomatic role.
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                Bihari Krishna
                Aug 14, 2017 at 4:06 pm
                While India has ically caused "perpetual disruption" in Nepal all along, her decision to host, aid and abet the Nepali Maoists was the most vicious. They slaughtered 18,000 plus people, rained untold misery on millions more, and unleashed unprecedented disruptions such as republicanism, so-called secularization and federalization of Nepal whose geography, composed of three specialized topographical belts, make sense only as an integrated whole. Now that China has effectively come to Nepal's rescue with trade, aid, investment and connectivity supports, India, a country that stagnates in its colonial past, is now more conciliatory to Nepal, the latest Swaraj mission being the most so. However, to restore normalcy and love between the two countries, India has to help reverse those wicked interventions. Help reinstate cons utional monarchy and Hindu state, end federalization, and conclude transitional justice even if it means a few Indian co-conspirators have to face the music too.
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                  Krishna k c
                  Aug 14, 2017 at 1:55 pm
                  This article is quite balanced .Yubaraj Ghimire writes with certain flavour.He is an ins utional product of prestigious indian media houses.His highly critical opinons on India regularly appears in this column.But his Sunya Samaya and editorship is frequently transferred from one paper to another.
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