How to distil a mandate

We need to talk about what needs to change, and what doesn’t, about our electoral system

Written by Mini Kapoor | Published:May 31, 2014 2:24 am
Even in Lok Sabha elections, a swing of a few percentage points can throw the Congress-led UDF or the CPM-led LDF out of the picture, as the case may be. Even in Lok Sabha elections, a swing of a few percentage points can throw the Congress-led UDF or the CPM-led LDF out of the picture, as the case may be.

With the BJP getting a simple majority in the Lok Sabha (282 of 543 seats) on 31 per cent of the national vote and the Congress’s 19.3 per cent share of the vote delivering just 44 seats, Verdict 2014 has reopened the debate on the representativeness of our first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, a debate it would be worth Indian democracy’s while to stay with a little longer.

India, of course, is not unused to tipping points, as it were, that deliver decisive mandates to a party or alliance far in excess of the percentage of votes won. In Kerala, for instance, a shift of barely a percentage point can dramatically alter the final result in assembly elections, thereby posing a nightmarish challenge to forecasters. Even in Lok Sabha elections, a swing of a few percentage points can throw the Congress-led UDF or the CPM-led LDF out of the picture, as the case may be. In 2009, the UDF took 16 out of the state’s 20 parliamentary seats on a 47.7 per cent vote share, leaving the LDF with 4 seats to claim as its own on a 41.9 per cent vote share. Five years earlier, however, the UDF had converted just one seat from 38.4 per cent of the vote, while the LDF snapped up 18 seats from 46.1 per cent of the vote. Don’t even bother to take out your calculator.

It was due to such numbers — typical in Westminster-style democracies, landslide victories without winning a majority of the votes cast — that the Liberal Democrats had sought electoral reform to bring in some form of proportional representation in Britain as part of the deal in forming a government with the Conservatives in 2010. As the third party in the fray, they had previously got slender returns on their substantial votes. The coalition government put to referendum the LibDems’ demand for the alternative vote (also referred to, in akin forms, as the single transferable vote or instant runoff voting).

In the current, if isolated, chatter about assessing representativeness, it is useful to revisit the architecture of that vote to see how plain vanilla proportional representation is not so easy to reconcile with the Westminster system centred on single-member constituencies. What was put to voters in a referendum in 2011 was the alternative vote. In an alternative vote system, a voter would rank candidates in order of preference. If a candidate gets more than half the votes cast, she wins. But if not, the candidate with the least number of votes is taken out of the fray, and her votes apportioned to those candidates ranked second. And so on, till you have a candidate with more than 50 per cent of votes. It sounds complicated, but operationally it would be quite simple to determine the winner. Indeed, the single transferable vote is used to determine the president of India (an indirect election) and the Australian legislature (a direct election).
Ultimately, the proposal was defeated. Of course, what a vast majority of British voters found unappealing need not be junked as a possibility elsewhere. But the arguments against the alternative vote were as persuasive, if not more, than those for. Follow a few hypothetical scenarios to their logical end and you could have the candidate ranked first on the largest number of ballots losing — provoking the question, what is the truest way to distil the mandate? Do you want a legislator who strikes the largest number of voters in her constituency as being the best alternative or one who’s the least unacceptable? It could come to that. Do you want a system that lends itself to being gamed in such a what-if way?

Given that any form of proportional representation will temper majorities, do you want the relative stability that comes with FPTP elections, so that even little swings can remove unpopular governments, or do you prefer coalitions formed after necessarily fractured mandates? Do you want a system that encourages candidates and parties to reach out to the largest number of people, and if so, which system may that be?

These questions may have been tricky enough in a polity like Britain’s where a third party was trying to secure its turf, but in a complex, aspirational political landscape such as ours, they would beg many more follow-up questions about how the will of the people is determined while taking account of India’s plurality. In the United States, a pitch is sometimes made for multi-member constituencies as an option. Would that work for our Parliament?

What should go without saying is that outright proportional representation could be a non-starter. To take just one obstacle, within what boundaries would the vote be apportioned? If nationally, where does that leave regional parties, or parties operating in smaller clusters of constituencies? For example, does it make sense in a general election to compare the AIADMK’s 3.3 per cent of the national vote this time with the 2.1 per cent of the AAP, given their differing geographical aspirations?

But while scouting around for and weighing other models, let’s not fail to relook at FPTP and see how its potential for representativeness can be maximised. To its advocates, FPTP’s biggest virtue is the equality of each vote, so that the final result best approximates the voters’ will. While appraising different systems and possibly (advisedly) staying with FPTP, hopefully for reasons more enlightened than status-quoism, it’s important to consider how FPTP’s potential is limited once a legislator is sworn in as an MP or MLA in India. How the original parliamentary burden on a government to command the confidence of the House ensured the necessary representativeness of FPTP. How the anti-defection law, by committing an MP to her party’s whip, limits the exercise of the power vested in her by voters to do the right thing. How the responsibility for a government to mop up legislative support on a bill, among its own party or coalition MPs individually as well as those from the opposition unfettered by the anti-defection law’s extreme punishment for dissenters, makes FPTP’s representativeness meaningful. That’s a conversation we need  to have.

The writer is a contributing editor for ‘The Indian Express’

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  1. S
    Sudeep Kanjilal
    May 31, 2014 at 8:14 pm
    I am not sure this is just lazy armchair analysis, or just plain Modi-hatred, but I will give you the benefit of doubt and attribute this bad reasoning to the former.Show me one large successful nation, with some diversity, that enjoys stable government and strong growth with proportional representation.There is none, and the reason is that proportional representation encourages silos, and differences. Regular democracies forces people/communitiies/tribes to 'enlarge their tent' and build coalitions, as that is then the only route to power.Please think thru the realities of India before sprouting such theories
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  2. K
    Kirit
    May 31, 2014 at 2:12 pm
    I don't want proportional representation. It is going to divisive India. I want socially and politically united India. Best way to do is to qualifying round before national election and frist tow parties field candidates head on. It will give clear majority to one of the two parties. Ideally, i like one national party right of center and other left of center. People should elect one party one time and another party other time. So excesses are corrected by the ruling party in a next cycle..
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  3. M
    Murgie
    May 31, 2014 at 1:56 pm
    I strongly believe what we need is at least a state-level election experiment in something called "approval voting" (where each voter "approves" or "disapproves" EACH candidate, so vote-splitting can't occur, where candidates therefore have an incentive to appeal to a broader section of the electorate [campaigns will be less nasty], and which can also be implemented very easily on simple voting machines or other devices. More information is at :en.wikipedia/wiki/A..., and :www.electology/appr..., and :bcn.boulder.co.us/gover... by Steve Brams who wrote a major text in 1983 [Approval Voting] that inspired many people round the world who are praying this system of voting will one day replace our first-past-the-post voting). For easily polarizable electorates like in India, I think approval voting would be especially valuable, both in giving an incentive for less divisive campaigning, and in persuading everyone that the winner does have a real mandate from the people.
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  4. M
    Maurya
    May 31, 2014 at 4:33 am
    Never seen any of this when congress won in both 2004 and 2009. But when BJP wins all break lose. U guys should come to reality instead of living in la la land. The states where the fight was between BJP and Congress BJP vote share was more than 55 % in all states. Even in UP where it was a 4 way fight BJP got around 40 percent of the votes. the reason for low overall percentage is BJP was only fighting in 427 seats. In the other 118 seats the allies where fighting. For example in TN BJP vote share was 5 percent and contested only 7 seats and so is in AP.
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  5. S
    SP
    May 31, 2014 at 4:03 am
    Whenerver BJP has contested, around 400 seats it has got 40% mandate. WIth its allies it has got 38% . It has got coverage in nearly all states. Except Kerala, it is a number 2 party in many states. In most states it has double digit vote %. Suddenly you wake up to beat Modi with another stick. Even a straw poll across country wanted Modi as PM. Manmohan SIngh became PM because of Sonia's support in 2004. In 2009, he won as PM, but was not allowed to stay as PM. Let there be a two party system, then BJP will get 50% seats. In most consuencies BJP has won with more than 1 Lac votes. Questioning such an emphatic mandate is silly. Changing rules of game because you did not like the result is motivated.
    Reply
  6. V
    V.
    May 31, 2014 at 8:19 pm
    If you do not agree with the result, the rules must be wrong. I never heard this discussion in the past. Only IG wanted a presidential system when her numbers were down. Now NM won on a virtual presidential type show down,
    Reply
  7. V
    VS
    May 31, 2014 at 10:51 pm
    Dear Ms. Mini, a lie repeated a hundred times will not become truth. Only voters in 424 consuencies across India has a Lotus to vote on. The rest 119 consuencies couldn't even vote for Lotus if they wanted to. In seats where BJP contested, it received 40% vote, not 31%. With NDA allies, Modi got 39% vote share. In places like TN and Telangana, many Modi supporters couldn't bring themselves to vote for casteist (X)MK parties and anti-Telangana TDP. Instead they voted for Amma and KCR in the hope that these leaders will support Modi post-poll. Stop the lie about the so-called 31%, and at least base your article on truth.
    Reply
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