How India can negotiate Trump’s world

US National Security Strategy emphasises need to attract the brilliant and the bold. America will not close its borders to Indian talent, if Delhi aligns itself with Washington’s economic interests.

Written by C. Raja Mohan | Published: December 25, 2017 12:30 am
How India can negotiate Trump’s world The NSS says the US will turn to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and gene-editing to keep its competitive edge in the global economy. (Illustration: C R Sasikumar)

The latest iteration of the US National Security Strategy (NSS) issued this week in Washington confirms the slow but steady convergence of American interests with those of India in the Subcontinent and more broadly the Indo-Pacific. It was no surprise that Delhi quickly welcomed US President Donald Trump’s strategy and the importance his administration attaches to the partnership with India. But there is a lot more to the NSS than the laudatory references to India and the criticism of Pakistan and China.

In the deeply-divided Washington, Trump’s NSS received mixed reviews. Understanding the internal debate in the US about its approach to the world is as important for India as parsing the administration’s latest thinking on China and Pakistan. For, Trump could well be the harbinger of major discontinuities in the US engagement with the world amidst significant internal economic turbulence.

For many in the US, the NSS reinforced concerns that Trump’s “America First” approach departs from the principles of internationalism that shaped American foreign policy since the Second World War. Others note that the president’s security team has sought to move Trump closer to the mainstream of the American worldview. But the president’s instincts appear very different.

As America argues with itself over foreign, economic and security policies, India is in a relatively happy situation. The Trump administration is determined to build on the US advances with India over the last two decades. If President George W. Bush affirmed that Washington will support India’s rise, Trump is welcoming India’s “emergence as a leading global power”.

If presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama stopped seeing India through the constricting prism of South Asia, Trump is betting on a larger role for Delhi in stabilising the Indo-Pacific. Although the term Indo-Pacific was first used by Hillary Clinton, it was Trump who articulated the idea at the highest level during his visit to Asia last month. The change in the American thinking is now reinforced by the first ever use of the term “Indo-Pacific” in the NSS documents that the US Congress demands from all administrations.

Within the Subcontinent, Trump, like his predecessors, acknowledges profound concerns about Pakistan’s support for international terrorism. Unlike Bush and Obama, Trump has promised to confront Rawalpindi on the issue. Fingers remain crossed in Delhi on how far the administration can go. It is not for nothing that Delhi underlined cooperation on counter-terrorism in endorsing Trump’s national security strategy.

On the face of it, Trump’s critique of China’s policies goes beyond what we have seen from any of the administrations since the normalisation of relations between Washington and Delhi in the 1970s. Washington now identifies China as a major challenge to America’s economic prosperity and political primacy.

Yet, the Administration’s ability to act decisively against China, we must not forget, will be constrained by the profound economic interdependence and the need for Beijing’s cooperation in addressing a large number of issues. But there is no doubt that the tough rhetoric on China comes after a year in which Trump sought quite hard to to secure some kind of a deal with the Chinese leadership on economic and political issues. The strategy document is strongly critical of Russia but Trump took a different tack in his speech, where he pointed to cooperation with the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Underlying these apparent contradictions is the new dynamism in great power relations.

The NSS says, “China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity”. The previous administrations assumed that China and Russia can be integrated into the global order led by the United States. In the new “competitive world,” the NSS argues, “this premise turned out to be false”.

The dawn of a competitive world does not mean Trump wants to take the world back to the Cold War. The NSS says, “Competition does not always mean hostility, nor does it inevitably lead to conflict — although none should doubt our commitment to defend our interests. An America that successfully competes is the best way to prevent conflict.”

Trump is affirming that Washington will not sit idly as other powers undermine America’s position. He wants to defend American primacy by rebuilding its military power, insisting on greater reciprocity in its alliances, reducing the constraints on economic growth imposed by domestic and international regulations, and demanding fair trade rather than free trade. America, Trump insists, will no longer be deluded by the ideology of globalism, multilateralism, but will operate on the basis of “principled realism”.

Many in Washington and a large number of US allies are sceptical if the “America First strategy” will work. That is unlikely to deter Trump. On its part, Delhi should focus on the sources of internal change in America that are compelling Washington to recalibrate its external relations. For that, Delhi has to look at one of the key propositions in Trump’s NSS: “Economic security is national security”. Aligning India’s economic strategy with the changes unfolding in Trump’s America is the key to an enduring and productive bilateral partnership. Central to that approach is the revitalisation of India’s high-technology partnership with America.

The NSS says the US will turn to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and gene-editing to keep its competitive edge in the global economy. While he might be opposed to importing cheap labour, Trump’s NSS says America “must continue to attract the innovative and the inventive, the brilliant and the bold”. Put another way, America is not going to close its borders to Indian technical talent.

The NSS adds that America “will nurture a healthy innovation economy that collaborates with allies and partners, improves STEM education, draws on an advanced technical workforce, and invests in early-stage research and development (R&D)”. India’s real opportunity with Trump’s America, therefore, lies in building on the expansive linkages between Bengaluru and Silicon Valley and demonstrating that the two nations could simultaneously prosper.

The writer is director, Carnegie India, Delhi and a contributing editor on foreign affairs for ‘The Indian Express’.

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  1. Seshubabu Kilambi
    Dec 25, 2017 at 9:51 pm
    To negotiate Trump, India must defy Trump started with the vote on Israel occupation of Jeru m and must continue to stop listening to Trump
    1. Andre Kohanzadeh
      Dec 25, 2017 at 7:21 pm
      The problem with thinkers like you is the fact that your ideas exist within the frame of reference created by the US (hegemon's) narrative. While dominance of US is unquestionable but the tendency to intellectuals to give shape to their ideas within that idea of dominance is shameful. What is your point of view on how can India reshape the current narrative ? You don't know because you are a Carnegie Fellow :)!!
      1. Ramesh Nittoor
        Dec 25, 2017 at 3:27 am
        Given the deep distrust of Trump Presidency for the DC establishment and intellectuals of all hues, it is advisable to view Trump from a short term context only. He represents a disruption, a short one though, that goes against the grain on the consensus within the deep state, a bipartisan and above politics mode of policy making that has guided the great nation for decades and steered victories in Second WW and Cold war. This law based set of premises is under severe stress by opportunistic and almost buccaneering mode of operations by the Trump administration. It is better for India to trust the deep, democratic, lawful state for long term, and concur with the incumbent team if specifics are in accordance with the deep state. The moves of the incumbent is driven by narrow political needs of domestic cons uents, not ideals, principles and nor even real interests of USA. The scene Rajamohan paints is simply misplaced. Any deal to escalate tensions with Pakistan is better avoided.
        1. Ram Nath
          Dec 25, 2017 at 8:54 am
          You consistently advocate Pak-istani and Chinese interests. Don't think you are fooling anyone.
          1. Ramesh Nittoor
            Dec 25, 2017 at 3:12 pm
            1. Ramesh Nittoor
              Dec 25, 2017 at 3:58 pm
              Ram Nath, As a US citizen and Indian-American think the post-Cold war global order which is emerging requires bot nations to cooperate in a fundamental way, but security architecture should emerge in a manner that stabilizes geo-political order, not raise a specter of instability in Indian subcontinent. US under President Trump is now looking inward, has aborted TSS, defied Paris accord and now threatening to scuttle NAFTA. Terrified Canada and Mexico abstained from Jeru m vote. To manage Trump team, it surely is critical for India to play her cards carefully, and articulate those with utmost care. Even Sec Tillerson who spoke to book ends of democracy and outlined a vision for next century, is reportedly on his way out. Let there be no illusions, Trump team is more in G-2 mode with China than earlier administrations. If there are opportunities which Trump administration presents, got to be capitalized but the long game, which matters lot more, should not be made suboptimal.
            2. Ramesh Nittoor
              Dec 25, 2017 at 3:35 pm
              The term Indo-Pacific is used in a sense of naval doctrine. It begins from west coast of India and covers up to US Pacific coast. The earlier Indian Naval doctrine definition had begun from Malacca Strait and extended up to Gulf of Aden. India has strategic interests in whole of Islamic world, culturally as well as economically. Indian policies do not divide Islamic world to exploit them, instead seeks to rise above these war inducing divides. Her wise policies shall increasingly matter in future to bring peace in Middle East. It is unwise for India to play second fiddle, and in the interest of geo-political stability remain genuinely non-aligned. Non-alignment and being a part of security architecture with US, Japan and other majors in developed west is not being inconsistent but actually reduces risk of global wars and increases scope of Indian economic development.