Fuelled by ignorance

The AAP-led debate on gas pricing betrays a lack of understanding of the industry

Published:February 15, 2014 12:05 am
The important point to note is that the price announced by the government effective April 1 is based on sound economic and market logic.  PTI The important point to note is that the price announced by the government effective April 1 is based on sound economic and market logic. PTI

The AAP-led debate on gas pricing betrays a lack of understanding of the industry.

I have been prompted to write this article by the FIR filed by the Delhi chief minister against the minister of petroleum, chairman of Reliance Industries and a number of others. I am not concerned about the specifics of the charges.

Some are sub-judice and others will no doubt be investigated by the relevant authorities. I am also not concerned about the ulterior drivers behind these charges. I have no political axe to grind, nor any commercial involvement with the hydrocarbons industry. I left Shell more than a year ago.

What I am concerned about is the lack of understanding of the oil and gas industry shown by people in power in their public pronouncements. In and of itself, this would not be cause for worry, but given that these statements have received wide currency, I am concerned at the negative signals this sends to investors. I have 35 years of experience in the hydrocarbons industry, and draw on this experience to provide an objective answer to the four questions that have been raised. Hopefully, these answers will elevate the quality of debate.

One, is there economic logic for increasing the price of gas from $4.20 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) to $8 per mmBtu on April 1? The answer is yes. Unlike oil, there is no world price for gas. Oil has a global reference marker (Brent crude, West Texas Intermediate) and so there is little debate about its market price. There is no such marker for gas. It is currently sold for approximately $4 per mmBtu in the US; $6-8 per mmBtu in Europe, and around $16 per mmBtu in the Asia-Pacific region. When asked to determine a gas price for India, the Rangarajan committee decided to base it on a formula approximating the weighted average price across these three regions. This average was around $8 per mmBtu. Rangarajan could, of course, have adopted a different methodology.

The committee could have considered the price major customers of gas would have been prepared to pay. Thus, a power plant fuelled by naphtha or LPG would be willing to pay at least $16 per mmBtu (as some are doing currently), given that the cost of liquid fuels is currently in excess of $20 per mmBtu on an equivalent basis. A power plant run on coal, on the other hand, would not pay more than $5-6 per mmBtu (and probably less), as coal is relatively cheap and it would not make economic sense to pay a higher price. A fertiliser company would be incentivised to manufacture fertilisers rather than import if it were assured of secure and reliable gas supplies at around $8 per barrel (bbl).

Had Rangarajan adopted this approach and taken a weighted average of these different customer price points, he would again have come to a number close to $8 per mmBtu. The important point to note is that the price announced by the government effective April 1 is based on sound economic and market logic. It is not a number plucked out of thin air, or one that reflects monopolistic collusion. I should point out that the main beneficiary of this price hike will be ONGC. It produces 85 per cent of domestic gas and will receive this higher price. I should also point out that under the terms of the production-sharing contract, the government will be the major recipient of the incremental profits generated by the price hike.

Two, does wilful underproduction make economic sense? I have no idea why production from the KG basin has slumped so sharply. But I can cite many examples of comparable variance between original estimates and eventual production. Production from the Ladyfern field in Canada fell by 96 per cent over eight years. The Golfinho field in Brazil was slated to produce 1,75,000 barrels a day. It plateaued at 55,000. ONGC bought the Imperial field in the North Sea in the expectation it would produce 80,000 barrels per day. It is currently struggling to produce 15,000.

The fact is that every company, including the most technologically sophisticated, has had to at one time or another eat humble pie in the face of the uncertainty of geology and nature. Some companies have on occasion held back production in expectation of higher prices but, given the volatility of the market, the uncertainties of reservoir management and the penalties of wilfully breaching approved development plans, prima facie, this is not prudent economics.

Three, what are the finding and development costs of a gas field?. This is, of course, a silly question. But I pose it because there was a suggestion by the chief minister that Reliance was handed over gas wells at $1 per barrel. The question is silly because there is no one answer. The costs depend on the location, geology, size, etc of the field.

What can be said, however, is that the total cost of exploration, development and production of an offshore gas field a la the KG D6 discovery would be several billion dollars. One offshore deep-water well could, for instance, set a company back by between $50 to $100 million. The probability of success is one well in 10 drilled. It is of course possible that once all the facilities have been built and the field is producing steadily, the operating cost per well could be around $1 per barrel. Even so, this is not a number on which one can hang the charge of windfall profits.

Four, does a contract structure that allows a company to first recover its costs and thereafter only share the profits encourage gold plating, that is, deliberate over-investment? There is no knowing what individual companies might do but many experts, including, most recently, the Kelkar committee, have concluded that when the net present value of investment for both the company and the government falls, the fall is more rapid for the company when capital expenditure increases. This is because the companies contribute 100 per cent of the risk capital. There is little, if any, economic incentive for companies to gold plate their expenditure.

The writer is the chairman of Brookings India and senior fellow, Brookings Institute.

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    DuckDuckGo
    Feb 17, 2014 at 8:38 am
    Its an an argument orthogonal to main issue. It doesn't matter how the industry works. Whether its the right way is the question. Natural is owned by people of this country and any additional profit beyond the rightful share of the company that is exploring and producing the gas belongs to the people of the country. Let the rightful share be big enough to cover the expenses, profit, the risk they take and the capital they bring and all. But the fact remains that the gas is owned by people of the country period.
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      Akhilesh
      Feb 15, 2014 at 8:57 am
      The establishment of Brookings India has been made possible by the generous and visionary support of the Brookings India Initiative Founders Circle, a group that believes in the importance of independent policy research at this critical juncture in India's history. The members of the Founders Circle supporting the Initiative are:Nita and Mukesh Ambani (Reliance Industries Ltd.)
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        Athul Athul
        Feb 15, 2014 at 8:15 am
        Sir a lot of respect for your words. But why should International price be the benchmark? Is cost plus method unviable? Coz we have to get our natural resource cheaply and not by applying high international price. Is it possible to say how much it can cost per unit or any such method. This relyng on high international price sound illogical.And one more thing, hike in price and corresponding increase in revenue to govt? How can that be true? Bcoz fertiliser subsidy bill for govt will also increase along with it, So wont the two(Increase revenue and increased subsidy) sqaure off? Does the current price makes the biz so unviable that they cannot reap back their investments?Plzz clarify these points.Mere endorsing for doubling of prices doesnt make sense.
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          The sword
          Feb 15, 2014 at 1:48 pm
          You do have an axe to grind. You are often seen at. Mukesh Ambani's house and are one obis chamchas
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            Debee
            Feb 14, 2014 at 7:37 pm
            Very good Explanation ... Politicians should work on facts
            Reply
            1. D
              Debee
              Feb 14, 2014 at 7:37 pm
              Very good Explanation ... Politicians should work on facts
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                Gaurav
                Feb 15, 2014 at 11:57 am
                A lot of valid points in the article, but also some one-sided-ness on 2 of the points.a) The claim is made that ONGC and the govt will be the prime beneficiaries of a gas price hike. Firstly, ONGC's 85% market share is based on current production... if KG-D6 starts producing at levels it had originally projected, won't RIL become the market leader and prime beneficiary? Secondly, is it not true that the govt and ONGC are not the ones who mooted the price hike, but RIL? Essentially, the article is rather downplaying the substantial benefits that the private sector company will derive from the $8 price.b) The last paragraph on gold-plating of costs is rather naive. A company doesn't need to actually over-invest to gold-plate costs. It just needs to over-state the costs incurred. The only way to detect that is a cost audit by the CAG, which the company was opposed to (not sure what the current status is).To end, filing an FIR might have been far too drastic a step, but there is certainly a stink to the the w KG-D6 production and price hike affair.
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                  Prashant
                  Feb 15, 2014 at 3:16 am
                  Would you please send this to AK and make him understand.. Everything can't be political and worth opposing without having single pie of own risk involved in the such a large investment and cost hungry business..
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                    Prashant
                    Feb 15, 2014 at 3:16 am
                    Would you please send this to AK and make him understand.. Everything can't be political and worth opposing without having single pie of own risk involved in the such a large investment and cost hungry business..
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                      foolonthehill
                      Feb 15, 2014 at 6:06 am
                      unfortunately this country brought up on freebies will not want to understand compeive economics..
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                        foolonthehill
                        Feb 15, 2014 at 6:06 am
                        unfortunately this country brought up on freebies will not want to understand compeive economics..
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                          Madhav
                          Feb 15, 2014 at 8:35 am
                          Vikram S Mehta, Chairman, Brookings India.Have a look at the funding list of this organization which features Mukesh Ambani at the first place. (:www.brookings.edu/about...
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                            Manmohan Vashist
                            Feb 15, 2014 at 4:58 pm
                            Dear Mr. Vikram Mehta,Your article is based on hearsay and cooked up to support RIL. After all, you are ex-S, so it should not be surprising.Please go to following bloomberg website and we can see current price of natural gas in USA.:www.bloomberg/energ...The fact is the oil wells in Krishna Godavari basin were given to RIL to operate on revenue sharing basis and initial studies of extent of gas and oil were based on ONGC's seismic studies with proven reserves.I am also in oil and gas industry as a pracioner in oil fields and can tell easily that it is easy to destroy a oil well with initial excessive output for quick profit and then spend more on work-overs on the same wells and with drilling additional wells.AAP may be blamed for poor knowledge but price in USA is $ 5.00 ( /- $0.24) per BTU. KG Basin gas has low cost of transportation and wells are government owned, therefore to state that cost of production of gas is $ 4 or more per MMBtu is utter non-sense. And, you know it.....
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                              PT
                              Feb 16, 2014 at 2:55 am
                              One of the silliest 'expert' articles I've read in a while.
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                                PT
                                Feb 15, 2014 at 1:49 pm
                                Stupid article:1. A company like Reliance can always gold plate their costs by over claiming their investment. No wonder they don't want a CAG audit.2. Why did Reliance agree to the original price if the weighted average of $8 was the right price. They should have backed out.
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                                  Rahul
                                  Feb 15, 2014 at 9:02 am
                                  The write is chairman of Brookings India.... funded by Mukesh Ambani..... why doesn't he mention that as the 1st line of this worthless article.... Kitna paisa deta hai be tera malik tereko ???
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                                    rmuk
                                    Feb 15, 2014 at 4:49 am
                                    He is just as biased as he claim the opponents of the new pricing to be. His claim : "India is supposed to pay world prices for its own resources."In other words, if I have a mango tree in my yard which I cannot climb, then myself as well as my family members, we must pay the fruit-picker at the rate of 100 rupees a kilo for the mangoes? Which is now increased to 200 rupees?
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                                      rmuk
                                      Feb 15, 2014 at 4:49 am
                                      He is just as biased as he claim the opponents of the new pricing to be. His claim : "India is supposed to pay world prices for its own resources."In other words, if I have a mango tree in my yard which I cannot climb, then myself as well as my family members, we must pay the fruit-picker at the rate of 100 rupees a kilo for the mangoes? Which is now increased to 200 rupees?
                                      Reply
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                                        Rakesh Mohan
                                        Feb 15, 2014 at 10:47 am
                                        The ignorance is of the author who is looking it with the eyes of an industrialist. Who gives space to these people?
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                                          Sandeep Sati
                                          Feb 15, 2014 at 8:29 am
                                          Mr. Vikram S Mehta,Everything penned down by you would have been warmly accepted...had you mentioned that your insution gets the maximum funding from Mukesh Ambani!!PROOF: :www.brookings.edu/about...
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                                            Sandip Mishra
                                            Feb 15, 2014 at 4:41 pm
                                            This is most stupid point of view. Reliance does not have ownership of the gas. It just extract the gas and it must earn reasonable profit out of it. It was decided less than one dollar in the beginning for the next 17 years. They have brought it upto around four dollar in collusion with government and eaten two relatively honest ministers. The author comparisons are entirely misplace and lack basic understanding of difference in Indian case. But not to blame him as the Indian Express is very proactive in supporting and circulating any idea which helps India inc. to hide their pers of the country.
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