No proof required: Big bang or big thud?

Demonetisation will have no benefits if the government does not follow up with tax reforms, reduce discretionary powers of bureaucrats and reform election laws

Written by Surjit S Bhalla | Published:November 19, 2016 12:15 am
demonetisation, Rs 1000 demonetisation, demonetisation news, demonetozation, demonetization affects, demonetization india, india news If secrecy was essential — who can argue it wasn’t — then implementation losses were inevitable. (Illustration by C R Sasikumar)

By the strangest of coincidences, those opposing demonetisation are almost 100 per cent of those who have opposed every economic decision of this government since day one. It must be emphasised that on non-economic issues, Narendra Modi’s government has faltered on several occasions, which I, and many others, have pointed out repeatedly. Many commentators are confusing the two (economic and social), and it comes out in their exposition. If I am doing the same, please let me know — I am sure I will be told on social media.

The topic under consideration (not a burning topic, nor a burning question) is an economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of demonetisation, and how the implementation could have been better. There is no doubt that people, especially the poor and the emerging middle class (bottom two-thirds of the population) have suffered a fair amount of inconvenience in obtaining cash for their daily needs. I doubt if the rest have suffered much at all (unless there were weddings in their families). Could the move have been costless? Absolutely not, and anybody selling you that is also selling you some Rs 1,000 notes. In the future in India, the terms “snake oil” or the “Brooklyn Bridge” will be used to refer to somebody selling a formerly legal Rs1,000 note. (George C. Parker was the greatest con man in American history and sold the Brooklyn Bridge repeatedly, once for $ 50,000. Snake oil recipes were being sold in Spain in the 18th century).

Could the cost have been significantly reduced? This is a question that will be discussed for the coming months, if not forever. If secrecy was essential — who can argue it wasn’t — then implementation losses were inevitable. There are some who argue that we could have gradually withdrawn old notes and gradually introduced the new notes. A Rs 1,000 saleswoman.

My first estimate is that a significant reduction in the implementation costs was not possible. The key explanation for this conclusion is that the government was driving in the dark — it had no template with which to “anchor” the surgical strike against black money. How do economists and/or policymakers prescribe decisions? You go with your knowledge and training, and Google search. And the conclusion is that, of course, demonetisation had been tried in several countries — of which were democracies — and all had a significant inflation problem: Russia in 1991, North Korea in 2010, Zaire in the early 1990s, Brazil in 1994. Brazil changed its currency — from peso to real — in 1994; its inflation rate in 1993 was 1,830 per cent.

But what about India? We demonetised the Rs1,000 note in 1978, when our inflation rate was 2.5 per cent. True, a democracy with low inflation did demonetise. Today, India has demonetised the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, which together account for 86 per cent of the total cash in circulation; and our inflation rate is 4.2 per cent, one of the lowest in the last 13 years. In 1977/1978, the demonetised Rs 1,000 note was less than 1.3 per cent of the total cash. I guess the 1978 episode is comparable to 2016, so the government had a precedent and could have performed better.

If there is no template, then can one blame implementation other than on the ground that since we had no precedent, the government should not have undertaken the initiative? That depends on whether one sees this as a package (with more reforms to be delivered) or a one-off morality play? If it is the latter, then the big bang will end up as the biggest thud.

Given that one was operating for the first time — for the world and most importantly for the Indians to see — the government seemed to have given the benefit of the doubt to its “corrupt” citizens. Notice the use of indelible ink for the withdrawal of money. This policy came late in the game and did so because black money holders brazenly misused the government’s (and people’s trust) by sending in hired help to obtain the freely available one-time conversion of old notes amounting to Rs 4,000 for new notes amounting to the same sum — and to do so from several banks on the same day.

Then there is corruption. Every adult Indian, at least since the late 1960s, has indulged in a black money transaction. Who has not been forced to give a bribe to get what is their right? No one. White money is converted into black when an individual bribes to obtain basic services like electricity connection, water supply, or public subsidies. The list is long; as is the room for discretion on the part of public servants. So a necessary part of reducing black money from corruption is to reduce the discretion — it is discretion that provides incomes to the bureaucrats, (including and perhaps particularly, those belonging to the tax department). If Modi does not initiate policies to reduce bureaucratic discretion, the big bang will be a thud.

We also need to look at tax avoidance. Around the world, high tax rates are the cause of black money creation. The rot exploded in the mid-1960s after Indira Gandhi became the prime minister in 1966. In 1969, she nationalised the banks; in 1970-71, she ushered in “tax reform” which guaranteed a high degree of tax evasion (with a corresponding reduction in tax revenue). This reform introduced 11 income tax rates ranging from 10 per cent to 85 per cent. Then there was also a 15 per cent surcharge, which meant that effectively the top marginal tax rate was 97.75 per cent. The rational response was stop working (and no income to support the family) or bribe tax officials. Black money was born big-time. Why did Ms. Gandhi do this? To help the poor, she said.

India has one of the largest cash to consumption ratios in the world — about 18 per cent; the median cash to consumption ratio in emerging markets (EMs) is close to 11 per cent; India is close to the 85th percentile among the EMs. The large Indian cash economy is a consequence of tax evasion, and of bad and/or corrupt administration of the tax regime.

Election funding needs a re-look. Reform of election laws is absolutely necessary for reduction in black money generation. All the political parties have refused an accounting of expenditures, though they have willingly succumbed to the accounting of income. The law in India is that no more than Rs 25 lakh can be spent, per candidate, for each parliamentary seat and no more than Rs 10 lakh per seat in a state election. Former Chief of the Election Commission S. Y. Quraishi was candid enough to admit that actual spending for a Lok Sabha seat was well above Rs 500 lakhs — more than 20 times the ceiling.

So when the books of political parties are checked, income is close to the official ceiling. But expenditures, with a shrug of the shoulders, humein kya pata?A matching election funding scheme has been proposed by former chief economic adviser, Arvind Virmani. Accounting for expenditures is another suggestion. Either way, unless election reform is done, chances of a big thud increase.

In a forthcoming article, I will discuss the reform of policies pertaining to income tax rates and property taxes . Many are looking at the costs of implementation and concluding that since there are no benefits to be seen, there will be no benefits. That conclusion will be right if the government is so senseless that it will cut the tree and ignore the roots. The next step has to be taxation and election reform — if not, the big thud will be on the horizon.

The writer is contributing editor, ‘Indian Express’, and senior India analyst at Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group. Views are personal

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  1. D
    DeepakTwo
    Nov 19, 2016 at 7:25 pm
    We don't know about the social and even economic effects of demonitization. However, what makes me still confident that we will come out just fine, for this reason: ACCOUNTABILIY.lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;I don't know if Modi's judgment is good or bad, but one thing he deserves absolute credit. He is accountable. He announced the change himself and he owns it.lt;br/gt;Now if it fails he takes the blame. If it succeeds he takes the credit. That's how it should be. And that's why I feel good about this government even if I've reservations about Modi.lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;I mean compare this to Manmohan. No one knew who was in charge. In congress, credit traveled up, blame traveled down.lt;br/gt;And has anybody noticed that Rahul hi does not even want to own his tweets.. his twitter account is not rahulhi... it's OfficeOfRG!!!! 'I didn't say it, it was my office.." That's exact opposite of accountabiliy!!!lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;Congress culture is about shirking responsibilities by creating layers and shielding the high command. That's why I like this government, although I do not fully support Modi or demonitization..
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    1. R
      Raghav Rajaraman
      Nov 19, 2016 at 6:53 pm
      Bhalla: "Who has not been forced to give a bribe to get what is their right"lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;Bribe is not the correct term to use here. Correct term is RANSOM.lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;"Ransom" is something you pay when you have to pay for something that is your right. (To get an electricity connection).lt;br/gt;"Bribe" is something you pay when you want to get something illegally. (Eg. to get building permits by byping environmental rules.)lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;Most common people face the RANSOM issue.lt;br/gt;It can be EASILY solved by calling it a ransom not bribes. Because paying bribes is illegal but paying ransoms is not. So it should be made legal to pay ransoms. That way people will be inclined to report/whistleblow about it. And that checks the problem of people asking for ransoms.lt;br/gt;Calling it bribes makes people not report it because they the ransom-payers are termed as criminals. That's stupidity.lt;br/gt;Check out Kaushik Basu's paper on this.
      Reply
      1. H
        Haru Mandal
        Nov 19, 2016 at 4:14 am
        Why the words "NEXT steps AFTER"? Why in this order of "Next Steps after" Demonetisation is A. Blah, B. Blah, C. Blah ... Why the Blah, Blah and Blahs were not done - if they should be done, should have been done. Why no STEPS of appointing 1. Lokpaal of India in Center, 2. Independent CBI 3. CVC with more Power, Authority and facility. ALL these (NEXT) steps were ALREADY taken?!?! Who should take these (NEXT) steps and why they slept over i (NEXT STEPS) in the last few years?
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        1. J
          Jayo khan
          Nov 19, 2016 at 1:02 am
          Its always seen a headline is always bolded and postscripts is in normal size letters. See the act was good when declared but the way process started giving big sharks to get clean up was a real mess leaving the process as mission un accomplished.
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          1. K
            Krishna Bhagawan
            Nov 21, 2016 at 9:50 am
            Expenditure is difficult to monitor. Just get rid of the income ceiling. Then the need of under the table funding will go.
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            1. M
              MyTake
              Nov 18, 2016 at 11:25 pm
              .. ..On democratic front currently we have only lt;br/gt;1. Parliamentary System of Democracy and lt;br/gt;2. Presidential System of Democracylt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;India should usher in the next step of democracy which will be a step up one. This will be DIGITAL DEMOCRACY and will fit very well with modern life style. lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;This is how it will work:lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;1. Give peopole the option for online voting. This can be done using APPs specifically develoed for casting votes.lt;br/gt;2. One should be able to caste vote anytime one wants to and does not have to wait for the election time. His vote will remain valid for next 5 years.lt;br/gt;3. Central server will collect the data on the last day of the election. Voting machines will be updated with information continuously who has voted online and who has not. Duplicate voters will be rejected with penalised keeping one of the two or simply will be reminded not to caste vote second time without deleting his online one.lt;br/gt;4. Data fed from the server, serving the online vote can be the best source to predict/forecast what people are up to. There will be less "agitation" and wreckage of public ets in the street. The unemplo, therefore, will be looking for real life work!lt;br/gt;5. Once majority of people gone online, call for election only when support to current Govt. comes below a certain threshold level. Election therefore can be held within a year (may be allow a minumum of two years) or may be once be within 10 years (maximum limit) based on public confidence in the current Govt. lt;br/gt;6. Sounds like saving money in the process? Use that to incentivise people to come under digital voting system or spend it elsewhere...
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              1. K
                K SHESHU
                Nov 19, 2016 at 1:58 pm
                If the steps are followed by election funding reforms, the measures may yield fruit as desired
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                1. A
                  akbar khan
                  Nov 19, 2016 at 1:53 pm
                  A third rate article. What was he paid to write it? A 1000 Re note! Was a waste of time reading it.
                  Reply
                  1. A
                    akbar khan
                    Nov 19, 2016 at 1:56 pm
                    Third rate article. The writer should speak for himself. Just because he evidently practised corruption does not mean every one else did, and so he should not make that ertion. I am personally offended by his statement. IE should find better analysts to write opeds.
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                    1. A
                      am
                      Nov 20, 2016 at 4:27 am
                      I fully agree that the Government tried to help poor with one time exchange facility, instead of compulsory deposit in the accounts. This was totally misused by the people at large. I am sure the slips of all deposits will be verified and many of such people will be questioned. However for the time being this has created unjustified lines and ques.
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                      1. O
                        Observer
                        Nov 19, 2016 at 7:31 am
                        Only a third world country, that is bordering on a Banana republic, would allow a driver to drive 125 crore people, in the dark, with no headlights. Not only should the driver be prosecuted, he should be thrown out. Gambling with the lives of a billion people, is morally, socially wrong. Its as bizarre as sucking out 85% of the blood from the body, and then trying to slowly inject in new blood, ensuring that the brain is dead, and gone forever. This is more akin to drunken driving, and should be punished the same way.
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                        1. A
                          am
                          Nov 19, 2016 at 5:45 pm
                          Dear Mr. Bhalla,lt;br/gt;by any chance, did you use the same set of statistical (s)tools to argue and predict that, H.clinton is going to win (your back-to back articles, dated 7th and 8th nov. in IE)?lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;At least, please recalibrate your thoughts (!!!).
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                          1. S
                            SK
                            Nov 19, 2016 at 11:32 pm
                            Let us fight this time and remove corruption and congress who did this from the face of India.
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                            1. V
                              Vedic Rashtra
                              Nov 19, 2016 at 12:57 pm
                              90 Cr go to the bank to get ry,Seriously!!! Anyways proof of the pudding is in its taste. in this case the Pudding will be ready in 50 days. We will witness the truth in 50 days. BTW I am not a blind bhakt. Lets go by facts.Google it, India has 600 million debit cards, that's half the potion.
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                              1. V
                                Vedic Rashtra
                                Nov 19, 2016 at 2:56 am
                                If there had been no planning to the extent possible (for secrecy sake) the situation wud have been 1000 times worse. 86% of currency is taken out of circulation but the situation is mostly under control.lt;br/gt;Out of 130 Cr popln, 30% of them are under 18, no bank account or need to hold cash by the 1000s. That leaves us with 70% of the popln i.e 90 Cr. lt;br/gt;Out of which 30% are very poor, live on less than Rs 3000 a month. That leaves us with 60Cr Popln. lt;br/gt;Out of which Top 50% have access digital means of spending. That leaves us with 30Cr Popln which have some 500 and 1000 notes and no digital means. lt;br/gt;Out of which only 50% need immediate cash (Wedding, Hospital, etc) so 15Cr ppl are affected by this move for 50 days.lt;br/gt;15 Cr out of a popln of 130 Cr are affected that is 10% of India. Hence Modi has planned it in the best interest of the country.lt;br/gt;You also need to give Modi credit for the timing, Just after the Rains, Diwali, but before Christmas and new year, Just before it gets too cold (Dec, Jan were out of question) but enuf time before UP elections.lt;br/gt;Boy oh Boy the amount of planning that has gone in to this is tremendous.
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                                1. B
                                  Balaji
                                  Nov 19, 2016 at 4:07 am
                                  Yes Govt and its machinery are the mother of Black money. If a party coming to power after huge spending of money definitely collect the black money. If one become minister without any other good qualities except the financial strength ,then creation of black money is inevitable. To lead a country some sort of qualification is required. I am not referring the educational qualification here, I mean to say The man should have good moral character and visionary for qualifying the leadership in politics. Money should not get any importance. As long as one becomes leader because of money power then no body in this country can eradicate this black money problem. If one uneducated, character less man going to lead a country means going to lead a group of highly educated people then it will be very difficult for him to have have a better command over these educated bureaucrat. In the process these bureaucrat will go out of control. That happens in our country so far. Hence the need of hours is high moral character in public place not Greedy for money. Then everything will be Ok automatically. No need for making unnecessary noise. This is not the country for one man, This is not country for Narendra Modi only. Why he will take all the pain alone. Why it should not be the responsibility of every citizen of our country. For a good decision why he is being criticised. Why we are all not thinking a plan how to materialise this smoothly. Because we are all character less. We think it is only the work of Narendra Modi and not our responsibility. God has provided all element in support of a life on the earth. But we have to go to field and do some labour for good harvest. For this act of God he is considered very kind by the greatest philosopher world wide. But I have a doubt if this God will come to India and stand in the election and become PM, Then I am sure these farmer will not go to field for harvesting the crop. Surely Mamata and kejri will arrange some Protest for the difficulties of farmer. Please understand. Let us we contribute from our side for the betterment of our country. At least we should elect the people of high morality for public position.
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                                  1. D
                                    Debojit Das
                                    Nov 19, 2016 at 4:18 am
                                    This move, no doubt, is one of the most sought after monetary reform for India to release the domestic black money. But the way it is being carried out could have been better had our government done some homework before jumping into it. Banning 86% of money at a single stroke is not a minuscule decision and definitely not something which can be implemented using a trial and error method, which the govt is apparently doing now. No doubt the potion is with the decision, and why wont they be, had it been done in a more systematic way there would have been less chaos and suffering for the common man.
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                                    1. G
                                      gurgaon
                                      Nov 23, 2016 at 3:37 am
                                      In 2012, in your article "where donkeys fly" in Indian Express you introduced the concept of Economically Illiterate India (EIL). Why do i feel you are deliberately ignoring the basic tenets of economics and policy making this time?
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                                      1. N
                                        N.S.MANIMARAN.
                                        Nov 20, 2016 at 2:43 pm
                                        All the laws including Indian Consution ought to be replaced according to the present needs. pseudo social justice is to be looked in to.then only Modi's attempts to reform India will yield results.
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                                        1. N
                                          N.S.MANIMARAN.
                                          Nov 20, 2016 at 2:48 pm
                                          Law should be changed .there should be a fear to the bureaucracy that they will be punished on the event of misuse of power to make money.
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                                          1. G
                                            gc
                                            Nov 19, 2016 at 1:41 pm
                                            Those who do not put human conscious into their calculations always get it wrong. Effects of an action/policy can not just be calculated in numbers, but you have to factor in also, how it will impact future behavior. While it is true,this policy will need to be followed up with many other,this in itself is a gamechanger.
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