Census, Christians, Conversions

Despite having the highest level of female education and the lowest fertility rate, why is the Christian population growth rate the same as that of the average Indian?

Written by Surjit S Bhalla | Updated: September 1, 2015 7:37 am
christian, christians in india, converted christians, conversion, christian conversion, religious conversions, Hinduism, india religious census, hindu muslim population, census 2011, population growth, muslim population census, religious population, muslim population growth, census population 2011, india census 2011, census population data, Religious Communities, Religious Communities census, india news, nation news The headline data in the news is that the share of Muslims in the population has increased yet again, to 14.2 per cent in 2011 from 11.7 per cent 20 years ago.

After a long delay — almost three years — the government has finally released the most basic of census figures: the religious composition of the population. Regardless of the findings, the time has come for political parties to stop dictating to number-crunchers when is a “good” time to release the data. As the just-released figures show, the people, political parties and experts will provide their own spin to the data, no matter when it is released. So can we please stop interfering, Congress and BJP? The Congress, because it sat on the data for two long years and the BJP for sitting on it for another year.

The headline data in the news is that the share of Muslims in the population has increased yet again, to 14.2 per cent in 2011 from 11.7 per cent 20 years ago. What causes the population share of a group to rise? Higher fertility rates, net immigration and a lower mortality rate. By far, the most important is the fertility rate.

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What determines the fertility rate? Essentially, the education of the mother and family income. The three are obviously related — poor, uneducated families tend to have more children. So an important and defining way to look at the higher population growth rate of Muslims is to view it as a reflection of their relative poverty. Indeed, as documented well by the Sachar Committee, Muslims are the poorest community in India. They also do not benefit from the nonsense of the reservation system; practically every group has reservations for education and jobs, except for Muslims.

Read also: Bend it like Bhalla

In this regard, there is nothing but cheers for the demagoguery of Hardik Patel, who is demanding education and job reservations for one of the richest communities in India: the Patels. May he finally succeed in eliminating reservations from the Indian psyche and the Constitution, and replace them with affirmative action, which Muslims would also be eligible for.

The good news is that the gap between Hindu and Muslim annual population growth rates is narrowing. Between 1991 and 2001, the Muslim population grew at a decadal rate 1.2 (log) percentage points higher than Hindus (3 vs 1.8 per cent); In 2001-11, this gap has come down to 0.6 percentage points — 2.2 vs 1.6 per cent.

For all religious groups, the population grew at a 1.6 per cent per annum in 2001-11, a steep decline from the 2.3 per cent a decade earlier.

The census data shows up some other interesting facts. There is a sharp decline in the fraction of the Sikh population — a fall from a 2 per cent share in 1991 to 1.7 per cent in 2011. This is along entirely expected lines. Sikh women have the second highest educational-attainment level (behind Christians); and fertility, to a large extent, is determined by the mother’s education. But here is the surprising revelation in the data: several commentators have noted that the share of the Christian population has stayed relatively constant at 2.3 per cent; hence their conclusion that the much-hyped conversion issue is indeed hype.

That is a hasty and wrong conclusion. It is surprising that the share of the Christian population has stayed constant; it should have declined significantly. Why? Because, along with Sikhs, Christians are the richest community in India. In the early 1990s, mean per capita consumption of Christians was Rs 404 per month and the fertility rate was 3.8 children per woman. The corresponding numbers for Sikhs: Rs 473 and 3.9. Almost identical, right? If so, then the population growth rate of Christians should be virtually identical to that of Sikhs; actually, somewhat less because of the higher education level and slightly lower fertility rate.

But that is manifestly not so. Between 1991 and 2011, the Sikh population grew at an average rate of 1.2 per cent per annum, while the population growth rate of Christians was a relatively higher 1.9 per cent per annum. This growth rate was higher than that of Hindus (1.8 per cent) and almost exactly equal to the average for all religions. So, despite having the highest per capita consumption, the highest level of female education and the lowest fertility, the Christian growth rate is the same as that of the average Indian.

So what is going on? Conversions.

Christianity practises proselytisation in modern times. The analysis allows one to put a figure to the average per year conversions that modern Christian missionaries have been able to achieve. It is the gap between what the Christian population should have been in 2011 versus the reality of 27.8 million. If Christians had the same population growth rate as Sikhs (of 1.2 per cent a year rather than the actual growth rate of 1.9 per cent a year), the total number of Christians in India would have been 24.1 million. The “excess” Christian population of 3.7 million in 2011 is very likely due to conversions. This excess translates into an average conversion rate of 1.7 lakh per year between 1991 and 2011.

In an item based on the ministry of home affairs’ annual report 2011-12, ‘The NGOs that will come under the lokpal’s ambit’ (The Indian Express, January 3, 2012), Shyamlal Yadav reports that “In all, of the 958, at least 515 were Christian missionary organisations, which collectively received Rs 2,003.75 crore as foreign contributions.” In that year, a total of Rs 11,000 crore was received by all NGOs. Assuming this money was mostly for conversions, a lower bound estimate of conversion expenditures can be obtained: approximately Rs 1.1 lakh per person or Rs 5.5 lakh for a family of five (again, assuming that a family is converted together).

The actual conversion expenditures are possibly lower; equally, possibly higher. However, it is quite unlikely that a poor converted family gets an amount in the range of several lakhs — if so, newspapers would have reported it! Since souls are being saved by the modern evangelicals, one presumes they don’t charge a fat salary to convert poor, desperate Hindus. But apparently they do.

The writer is contributing editor, ‘The Indian Express’, and senior India analyst, the Observatory Group, a New York-based policy advisory group.

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  1. H
    Himanshu
    Mar 8, 2017 at 7:01 am
    SCs were discriminated in the Past so India has provision of Quota for them that discriminates against present Unreserved castes. Is this not discrimination? Discrimination being compensated - its scale has no parallel anywhere in the world. Still, if they r converting because they fell discriminated, why not leave completely! hypocrites! I've seen SCs barring their children from marrying people from other castes too. SCs do get discriminated even after conversion to other religions e.g. ever heard of rice-christians. Educate yourself rather than being just buffalo soldiers in a manufactured revolt by breaking-India forces.
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    1. A
      Alensandra
      Dec 21, 2016 at 4:55 pm
      It's so biased article. Only mere umptions to create more religious tensionsdian consution guarantees freedom to practise, profess and propagate any religion.
      Reply
      1. E
        Eh OK
        Apr 13, 2016 at 8:04 pm
        In the hindu religion, man act like god, this allows for the opression of men of his own kind. For example, the caste system.
        Reply
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          prasad
          Jun 12, 2016 at 5:03 am
          Percentage is a lie. Absolute numbers are important. Conversions to Christianity re going on. Most of the Scs are Christians. They have one religion for practicing and one religion for official purposes for claiming reservations.
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          1. S
            Sreenath reddy
            May 17, 2016 at 7:13 am
            Please stop conversions..lt;br/gt;India is land of hindus
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            1. A
              aks
              Aug 29, 2015 at 6:07 pm
              After reading the comments, get the feeling that How difficult it is for the Christians to accept that their ancestors could have been lured with money...That their souls were harvested is not a comfortable feeling.
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              1. A
                aks
                Aug 29, 2015 at 7:34 am
                That the missionaries are doing conversions by luring the poor with money is a shameful fact, and now has been proved. The sundry pseudo seculars, including this newspaper who opposed the so called ghar wapsi so vehemently have no words to say, have nowhere to hide.
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                  Aparna Tulpule
                  Aug 29, 2015 at 12:48 pm
                  Why does the article not mention the relative mortality rates of Christians and Hindus? What about family size? Why derive fertility rates from female education rates when you have the fertility rate statistic directly? Why leave out the opposition to contraception, which may influence even some educated Christians? Are all these factors irrelevant or was the conclusion about conversion decided before looking at the data? Considering the writer's capability, we can leave out the possibility of oversight.
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                  1. L
                    Lovely
                    Aug 30, 2015 at 10:30 am
                    Christian converts hide the truth so that they do not loose reservation benefits.It is a fact .
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                    1. L
                      Lovely
                      Aug 30, 2015 at 10:36 am
                      There will be many Kashmirs. In future.
                      Reply
                      1. S
                        SK Panicker
                        Aug 29, 2015 at 6:46 pm
                        If poor SCs and Bcs were lured only for money- then the immediate consequence is that they will loose all reservation benefit. Story doesn't connect. why would an SC or BC convert to Christianity and looose benefits
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                        1. S
                          Sucheta Maheshwari
                          Aug 29, 2015 at 8:58 am
                          The evangelist has no use for the informed literate wealthy so he keeps 'helping with charities' by conspiring against the nation to keep it ignorant illiterate and poor.
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                          1. K
                            K SHESHU
                            Aug 29, 2015 at 10:25 am
                            The census data analysis shows only the superficial increase or decrease of numbrs of religious communities and posdible causes of such drop or rise. But, the data should be analysed alongwith social and cultural problems facing the w country as well as specific local areas. Mere generalisations of facts and linking conversions and financial implications shows half the picture only. The very nature of Indian potion is complex and the census data by itself does not means anything without social intrepretations.
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                            1. Y
                              Yadwinder
                              Aug 29, 2015 at 9:00 am
                              If India wants to be a united country it must control its potion growth. Our potion is way out of of control and eating up the natural resources. If this explosion trends continue, the next ten years will see see lots of riots, shortage of food and living accommodation. There is a serious danger that country may disintegrate. We need action now not tomorrow .
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                              1. M
                                Moses
                                Aug 31, 2015 at 7:24 pm
                                There are much sound coming out from some groups about conversion which is totally false and ridiculous . India is a secular country and the consution provided us the right to practice , possessed and propagate . If some one attract and love some other religion than his what is the problem ? False allegation and propaa cannot stop the truth .
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                                1. G
                                  george
                                  Aug 29, 2015 at 11:41 am
                                  Poor analysis from a person call himself economist. One of the major reasons of fall in Sikh potion is also higher level of immigration along with fall in fertility rate. What if the major education drive among Sikhs women started after 2000 and christian women already were educated and had the freedom choose as far as number of children are concerned?. Relatively speaking, Sikh potion will fall. This is definitely the case in Kerala. We need more detailed data to reach any conclusions.
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                                    aj saxin
                                    Sep 19, 2015 at 10:05 pm
                                    Well mr balla then you might want to take into account the western immigration culture amongst the Sikhs for the slower growth when compared to Christians .No other community in India have insutionlised migrating to "greener pastures" such as Canada ,U.K. And the USA as the Sikhs have.So yes when every young able bodied Sikh migrate that would reflect on their census numbers. In any case I don't see you ping a backhanded compliment at this phenomenon where they choose to leave their mother land in search of better avenues like you did when talking about Christians.Atleast in terms of Christians it's a net gain for the country ,foreign money in form of "conversion bribes " as you would call it benefiting mostly the poorest who would choose to stay behind in India and actually contribute vs adding on to Canada's gdp. But then as most columnists go ,you come with an agenda not an open mind.
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                                      anil sarin
                                      Aug 29, 2015 at 9:23 am
                                      Good article. But the explanation could have been better. I'm not completely clear whether conversions is the ole explanation.
                                      Reply
                                      1. A
                                        Ashish Mishra
                                        Sep 1, 2015 at 12:48 am
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                                          baba thugdev
                                          Aug 29, 2015 at 7:16 pm
                                          who says they loose the reservation benefit? stop making $tupid comments without having any information. They go to churches but when it comes to declaring their ca$te they say they are what they have always been.
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                                          1. B
                                            B Pinheiro
                                            Aug 30, 2015 at 4:00 am
                                            The writer's logic is flawed and for the following reasons: 1)Using the sikh community as a reference for comparison with any other community is like comparing oranges and apples:different cultures,different socio-economic factors,different potion distributions-besides has the writer factored in the craze for migration to western countries among the sikh potion - perceivably lower among the christian community which could be possibly one more reason for a dipping sikh potion. 2)'Along with Sikhs, Christians are the richest community in India '---seriously Mr writer,are you living in some fantasy world----I would advise you to look at christian communities in Mumbai,Goa,Mangalore instead of conjuring facts out of thin air to suit your clearly biased views,while Christians are for the most part financially stable,by no stretch of imagination can they considered to be 'rich',perhaps the tag would be more convincing when applied to the Marwari,Punjabi and Sindhi communities. 3)While a high level of literacy and a lower fertility do play an important role in lower potion growth has it occurred to the writer that there are other factors which counterbalance the same as for eg: better medical care leading to higher longevity,certain orthodox christian communities whose rigid interpretation of doctrine makes them reluctant to use contraception,and so on...will the writer in his infinite wisdom consider these facts as well instead of jumping to erroneous conclusions? 4)The Christian community has been engaged in serving the poor and disadvantaged in India for the past so many years now..if what the writer is putting forward as the gospel truth viz Christianity practises proselytisation in modern times - then there should have been an exponential growth in the christian potion by this time...so where are the missing christians,Mr writer? In the future it is my humble suggestion to you that you do indeed 'analyse' before making any 'contribution' in an attempt to 'advise'.....
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