Bad cure for a racing pulse

Scapegoating ‘hoarders’ and ‘speculators’ for the spike in dal prices might have been effective in the 1960s. But today, it is only evidence of a rather sloppy conceptual policy framework.

Written by Ashok Gulati , Shweta Saini | Published:October 23, 2015 12:48 am

dal price, india dal price, dal price rise, onion price, dal price delhi, india news, latest news, dal price explained, indian express Who in the government is accountable for the present situation in pulses?

The pulse rate of a normal and healthy human body hovers between 60 and 100 beats per minute. There can be problems if it goes any higher — and a serious threat to life over 200 beats per minute. An analogy can be drawn with the present situation of the prices of pulses in India. Retail prices of all major pulses have crossed Rs 100/ kg. In the case of tur/ arhar (pigeon pea), they have crossed the double-century mark of Rs 200/ kg in several places. The continuation of such price-rise would sound the death knell for any political party in power. Evidently, the present government’s mission to bring down food inflation has faced a severe blow.

The government has, in fact, tried to use a number of tools to tame the price-spike. It constituted a committee, invoked the Essential Commodities Act against traders and stockists (hoarders), imposed stocking limits on dal mills, large retailers, warehouses, etc, imported 7,000 tonnes of tur dal, banned exports, reduced the import duty to zero, and suspended futures and forwards trading.

The result: Tur prices in markets like Rajkot, Bangalore, Puducherry and Chennai have touched Rs 200/ kg (and even higher) — an annual increase of 100, 163, 147 and 141 per cent, respectively. Urad is following the lead closely. There isn’t much relief in sight. Some respite, though, is foreseeable by mid-November, when the new crop will hit the markets.

In retrospect, these ineffective policy measures appear to be knee-jerk reactions more than calibrated responses of policymakers. Scapegoating “hoarders” and “speculators” might have been effective in the 1960s. But in today’s times, it is only evidence of a rather sloppy conceptual framework of policymakers.

Who in the government is accountable for the present situation in pulses? Alarm bells rang out in early September about pulse production falling by more than two million tonnes (about 11 per cent) in 2014-15 over 2013-14. The effect of the 2015 drought on the major pulse-growing states — Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh — meant that future supply pressures were near-certain. While traders had their ears to the ground, the complacency of government officials has resulted in the present situation. The time to act was then. Now, the economic damage to poor consumers and political harm to the government in power have been done. Interestingly, the
bureaucracy, which should be accountable for tracking production and prices, and ensuring smooth inter-/ intra-year supplies, goes scot-free.

But what went wrong? We discuss next, three basic issues/ questions. First, who is a hoarder? Let us remember that in any situation in which harvesting is concentrated in a one- to three-month window, though consumption is spread through the year, there is a need for someone to store the stock to smoothen supplies. Is this not why the government is encouraging the creation of warehouses and cold storages? Now, when the government imposes stocking limits, legitimate stockists become “hoarders” overnight. Forcing them to offload stocks will certainly bring immediate relief to the markets, but what will happen to supply in subsequent months is anyone’s guess. Additionally, this strategy also discourages further investments in warehouses/ cold storages by private stockists, inflicting deep damage to the system. In the absence of stockists, market prices of, say, pulses in the months immediately after harvest would collapse, discouraging farmers from growing them in the subsequent season. Surely the country can’t afford to have farmers take such a decision.

Second, by suspending futures and forwards markets, the government has simply shot the messenger. Forwards and futures markets are supposed to give signals about likely future prices, and if harnessed well, they can actually help the government take preemptive measures. But by shooting them down, the government has, in fact, shot itself in the foot. Now, the government is in a dark room, with no clue about existing stocks or the prices likely in the coming months. If the government feels that some traders are colluding and rigging the market, let Sebi and the Competition Commission look into it.

Third, the government’s decision to import 7,000 tonnes of tur (5,000 tonnes earlier, and 2,000 tonnes now) to tame prices, shows the sheer naivety of officials. In a country where the consumption of tur hovers between 3.3 to four million tonnes, aiming to control rising prices by importing 7,000 tonnes exposes the government’s ignorance in pulse price management.

So, what are the potential solutions now? First, the government should create a buffer stock of around two to three million tonnes from domestic production and/ or imports, and release it whenever pulse prices spike. Given that domestic consumption of pulses is around 23 million tonnes, this level of stocking is the minimum that is needed to stabilise prices. Second, the government needs to create a crop-neutral incentive structure for farmers, which is at present skewed in favour of rice, wheat and sugarcane. Much of the subsidies on fertilisers, power, and irrigation go to these crops. These subsidies amount to more than Rs 10,000/ hectare. If the same amount were given to pulse growers, they would be incentivised to produce more. Third, diversify and enhance the pulse basket. While yellow pea and lupins can be imported from Canada and Australia, respectively, we need to use soya flour, along with rice, wheat and other pulse flours, and re-constitute these into pulses. We are surplus in soya, and soya flour has a very high protein content — more than 40 per cent compared to 20-25 per cent for most other pulses. Technology to do this exists and can be tailored to Indian tastes. Innovations like this and incentives to produce more pulses are the way to go.

For the time being, markets will find a solution as people switch from dal to murgi, wherever they can, as chicken is cheaper than tur dal! The proverb, “ghar ki murgi dal barabar”, rings true.

Gulati is Infosys chair professor for agriculture and Saini is a consultant at Icrier.

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  1. A
    Arpit Shukla
    Oct 23, 2015 at 7:27 pm
    Nicely written.
    Reply
    1. A
      Arun Sharma
      Oct 23, 2015 at 12:59 pm
      Idea of using soyabeans and its flower is good to get protein. In general we consume Tur dal mainly. We need to encourage consumption of other pulses too and even eggs and fish too. Even a slight drop in production of any food item raises prices substantially. This should be checked.
      Reply
      1. T
        Tellitasitis
        Oct 23, 2015 at 9:41 am
        A good analysis of the problem and a sensible set of solutions for the government to adopt to save itself and to save the consumers from facing such crises periodically from one product to the other. Sugar, Onion, Dals, Oil...god knows what will we run short of soon.
        Reply
        1. A
          anandap
          Oct 23, 2015 at 8:50 am
          This is a clear indication that how farmers are dejected in India to cultivate, despite demands are there for essential agriculture products, due to non support of Government with adequate facilities.
          Reply
          1. K
            Kuldeep Saxena
            Oct 23, 2015 at 11:51 am
            We had been very clear that since there were deficient rains the clear sign of fall in the production of crops. The country needs to think of the monsoon trends as well the irrigation infrastructure as well the storage capacities and the most important is to work on the conditions that prevail after monsoon. There has been a big delay by the government to work out on the prices because of dela as well deficient monsoon. we need to be expert on reading between the lines. Water harvesting system reviving sources of water harvesting as well the need for creation of river canal network. Only one state i.e. Punjab is better off on canal-river system but again there are reports of quality compromises on the quality of insecticides as well other problems. Another aspect of present day agriculture production needs to change on cropic pattern there needs to a little shift from sugarcane as well wheat but needs a careful study advising the farmers on as well deciding on the proportionate changes needs to be brought. There has been considerable delay in the imports of pulses which has led pulses away from the kitchen of general mes and definitely it all has facilitated in the steep rise in the prices. We have already witnessed the impact of rising prices of Onion that resulted in fall of Delhi Government earlier- so be late than never and the government must come up with remedial measures.
            Reply
            1. A
              ashok
              Oct 23, 2015 at 12:19 pm
              Can traders, almost by definition small to medium businessmen, collude and cartelise to distort supply and price across an entire subcontinent - I have always been deeply sceptical about this foreign hand sort of explanation for our troubles. 2. The government should certainly be looking at making changes in cropping patterns, cutting back on wheat and rice, also sugarcane in Maharashtra, encouraging higher production of oilseeds and pulses. 3. The beef ban may be kind to the cows but it will add to price pressure on daal.
              Reply
              1. M
                Mahender Goriganti
                Oct 23, 2015 at 11:44 am
                Prices are simple laws of commerce demand and supply. It may take few tweaks to prevent hording and manition of prices but not a w lot
                Reply
                1. M
                  Manmohan
                  Oct 23, 2015 at 5:53 am
                  The private sector should be encouraged to import pulses in lean season. The raids on stockist is knee jerk reaction which reflects poor planning. Inventory planning model based on real time information is required to be installed at central level. Stockist should be encouraged to report real time inventory levels. There should be no restriction on inventory levels. But misreporting should lead to stricter penalitieis.
                  Reply
                  1. R
                    rajani kant
                    Oct 23, 2015 at 6:27 pm
                    The price of onion, potato and dals have come to stay at Rs.50, Rs.30 Rs.200 permanently. Wait for few more days and see that the price of other essential commodities will shoot up and that is 'achche din' for traders/corporate houses and for farmers and consumers we all know our fate. Strange that inflation is still going down!
                    Reply
                    1. X
                      xyz
                      Oct 23, 2015 at 4:31 pm
                      Who in the government is accountable for the present situation in pulses? Alarm bells rang out in early September about pulse production falling by more than two million tonnes (about 11 per cent) in 2014-15 over 2013-14. - It should have been "early September 2014".
                      Reply
                      1. S
                        Seth Kiranawallah
                        Oct 23, 2015 at 10:23 am
                        The pressute who wrote this article is a Bania hating naxalite/communist who is against Free Market. BJP is party of Banias and they have brought Free Market to India, the only method by which India can progress and Make in India can succeed. All foreign countries like USA, UAE, Australia, Germany etc. are also supporting BJP under the visionary leadership of Modi to remove the price controlling communist government of past. Where were these pressutes hiding when Modiji had brought down the price of oil all over the world without decreasing the profit of any single Patel businessman or Bania for the progress of India? Such anti profit articles are written by traitors working for China and stan and the pressutes writing them must be put in jail for being deshdrohis.
                        Reply
                        1. V
                          Vedic_Citizen
                          Oct 23, 2015 at 11:17 am
                          Is erratic monsoon & draught in MH ignored in the article ? All of a sudden consumption of Daal increased exponentially?
                          Reply
                          1. V
                            Venkataraman
                            Oct 23, 2015 at 9:15 am
                            In times of shortage all sorts of opinions are mouthed. Where were all these opinions when things were normal?
                            Reply
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