We arrive at Coal India price target of Rs 325 per share,valuing it at Rs 2,055 billion based on DCF (discounted cash flow) methodology.
At this price target,the Coal India stock would trade at 17.6x (times) FY11E and 15.3x FY12E earnings. At the higher end of IPO price band of Rs 245 per share,the stock is valued at 11.6x PER (price-to-earnings ratio) and 3.6x P/B (price-to-book) on FY12E basis,at a meaningful discount to utilities like NTPC,PGCIL,etc. Given the utility model in commodity business,coupled with the characteristics of sellers market,we believe that CIL will largely have a linear earnings trajectory and impressive RoE (return on equity)/ free cash generation. Reported RoE for FY10 was 44%,despite a cash balance of Rs 390 billion (1.4x capital employed). We recommend Subscribe.
CILs profitability and earnings growth are more linear compared to a few of its peers globally,depicting the utility nature of earnings in a commodity business.
Size and scale: Access to 64.3 billion tonnes of reserves,representing about 6% share of global proven reserves,and production (largest global reserves and production) Growth visibility and sustainability: Reserves to production (RP) ratio of 50 years (extractable reserves) and 122 years (proved reserves) provides further growth option,as about 40% of proved resources has not been considered for mining studies.
Competitive cost structure: Given the favourable geological conditions of many of its operational coalfields,it has a lower strip ratio at 1.6x.
Sellers market: Given the widening demand-supply gap,we expect that imported coal will contribute 45%+ of the incremental requirement till FY15 vs 6.8% currently,placing CIL favorably to capitalise on the characteristics of a sellers market.
Growth for CIL,we believe,is a function of three key variables: (i) initiatives to ramp up production,(ii) aligning the business model to reap further benefits from market prices,and (iii) cost savings plus efficiency improvements. Continued momentum on these levers,as in the past,provides possibilities to improve returns meaningfully. CIL is aligning its business model to gain from higher spot prices,with the FY10 contribution at 26% of production and 38% of sales revenues.
There are the possibilities to improve the ratio further as: (i) in the Integrated Energy Policy,the Planning Commission had envisaged increasing the share of e-auction to about 20% of production gradually from 10% currently,(ii) beneficiated coal capacity (4% of FY10 despatch) is underutilised given the lax environment regulations and CIL itself is planning capacity expansion to 7x of current utilisation till FY17.
We believe that the quantum of washed coal sales could increase meaningfully as the MOEF (ministry of environment and forests) is seriously thinking of imposing norms for using washed coal beyond a distance of 500 km,vs 1,000 km now; and 27% of the capacity to be commissioned in the Eleventh Plan is at a distance of 1,000+ kms.
CILs volume CAGR (compound annual growth rate) shows an increasing trend of 4.4% over the last 15 years,5.3% over the last 10,and 5.9% over the last five years. Revised FY12 target of 487 million tonnes of coal production suggests a two-year volume CAGR of 6.1%. Capex is likely to be up 42% continued…