The keenly awaited monsoon has missed its normal date of arrival in Kerala but weather scientists say there is no cause of worry as yet. The onset of monsoon on the Kerala coast is now likely to happen on June 5,four days late but well within the range of natural deviation.
The Indian Meteorological Department reiterated on Friday its seasonal monsoon forecast,saying the country is likely to receive 99 per cent normal rainfall during the four-month rainy season from June to September.
It said the monsoon had set in over south-east Bay of Bengal and north Andaman Sea last week,and has spread over most parts of this region and also in south-west Bay of Bengal.
Conditions have become favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of southeast Arabian Sea and some more parts of Maldives-Comorin areas and southwest Bay of Bengal during the next 2-3 days. Analysis of meteorological conditions indicates onset of monsoon over Kerala would occur around June 5, an IMD statement said.
It said widespread rains and thundershowers were expected along the west coast and over the northeastern region during the second-half of the coming week.
Scientists said the departure from the normal date of onset could not be attributed to any one particular event but pointed out that the cloud building process in the Indian Ocean region had so far remained slightly weakened.
There is no cause of worry as of now. Two or three days of deviation from the normal date of onset is well within the natural deviation. A monsoon onset vortex (a kind of low-pressure area that results in the onset over Kerala) is developing and that is a good sign, a weather scientist said.
He said the behaviour of this vortex over the next few days would be watched keenly. This vortex generally moves northwards along the western coast and pulls the monsoon northwards in Kerala and Karanataka and further in the peninsular India. However,sometimes,this vortex shows tendency of moving westwards,away from the western coast and then the monsoon flow gets weakened.
The situation with regard to the onset vortex would become more clear in the next couple of days. But in any case,we should expect the first round of rains along the Kerala and Karanata coastline in the next few days, he said.