India could be heading for another hung Parliament,with the Congress-led UPA getting between 215 to 235 seats,leaving the rival NDA alliance between 165 to 185 seats in the upcoming general elections,says an opinion poll conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN.
Both the Congress and the BJP may,however,improve on their 2004 performances. The Congress may gain by a huge 3.5 per cent votes,thus getting 29.9 per cent of votes,with the BJP gaining just about 0.1 per cent of votes,ending up with 22.3 per cent votes in the coming elections,according to the survey.
The allies in the rival alliances may,however,lose heavily. Congress allies could end up with just 6.7 per cent of votes,seeing a drop in their vote share by 3.4 per cent,while BJP allies may just get 7.1 per cent votes (6.6 per cent less than what they got in the last general elections).
The Lefts vote share could slip to 6 per cent from 8 per cent in 2004,but the BSP could see its vote share rise by 0.5 per cent to 5.8 per cent,says the survey.
In an interesting trend,the survey shows that the gains for the Congress may be coming from Hindu upper castes (a whopping 8 per cent) and dominant peasant castes (7 per cent). It may also gain around 5 per cent of votes among lower OBCs and Adivasis. The survey further suggests that the BJP continues to be supported by the wealthy in both urban as well as rural areas.