What black money? Government may be in for shock

On November 28, the RBI announced that Rs 8.45 lakh crore (Rs 8,44,962 crore) in the banned high denomination notes had been deposited in the banks between November 10 and November 27.

By: IANS | New Delhi | Published:December 1, 2016 12:40 pm
black money, demonetisation, narendra modi, modi, currency ban, old notes exchange, notes exchange, old notes, new notes, illegal exchange of notes, demonetisation, demonetiisation impact, india news Various estimates have been made of the quantum of such money — which is not expected to be deposited in banks — ranging from Rs 3 lakh crore to Rs 5 lakh crore. (Source: Reuters)

The main reason given by the government for demonetising high denomination notes was to curb black money. Various estimates have been made of the quantum of such money — which is not expected to be deposited in banks — ranging from Rs 3 lakh crore to Rs 5 lakh crore. But if one goes by the deposit trends so far and the projections, the black money expected to be purged may be much less. The Narendra Modi government may thus be in for a shock.

On Tuesday, in a reply in Rajya Sabha, the Minister of State for Finance, Arjun Ram Meghwal, said that there were 17,165 million pieces of Rs 500 notes and 6,858 million pieces of Rs 1,000 notes in circulation on November 8, 2016, the day Modi made the announcement of demonetising the two high denomination notes. The total amount of high denomination currency circulating in the system on that day was, thus, Rs 15.44 lakh crore (Rs 8.58 lakh crore in Rs 500 notes and Rs 6.86 lakh crore in Rs 1,000).

On November 28th, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that Rs 8.45 lakh crore (Rs 8,44,962 crore) in the banned high denomination notes had been deposited in the banks between November 10 and November 27. Banks were closed on November 9. This was the value of banned notes deposited in the banks in 18 days, out of the 50 days that the government has permitted bank customers to do so. That too, when huge queues outside banks detered many people from putting money into their accounts.

Further, all commercial banks in India have to maintain a portion of their deposits with the RBI known as cash reserve ratio (CRR). The RBI uses this to manage liquidity in the system.

On November 8, the total amount of actual cash with the RBI as CRR was Rs 4.06 lakh crore (Rs 4,06,900 crore), according to the weekly bulletin of the central bank. This is cash, sent mostly in large currency notes according to bankers, by the banks on any incremental deposit that they have, thus adding to their CRR deposit held with the RBI.

Additionally, banks retain money with themselves to manage day-to-day affair and to provide money on demand by customers. According to the RBI, the average cash-to-deposit ratio of banks in India is 4.69. If four percentage points from this goes as CRR to RBI, amounting to Rs 4.06 lakh crore (on Nov 8, say), the cash with banks would average around Rs 70,000 crore. This would include all denominations, of course.

So, if we take the money deposited in 20 days and add the November 8 CRR to it, that amounts to Rs 12.50 lakh crore. If we further add a portion of the cash-in-hand on November 8, say Rs 50,000 crore, the total amount of money which is not with public in old notes is Rs 13 lakh crore.

There are still 30 days left to deposit banned currency notes. At the rate at which money is being deposited, it stands to reason that Rs 2 lakh crore or more would come into the system till December 30, thus throwing to the winds all calculation of the government to tackle black money. Either the black money is not in high denomination notes or those who have such money may already have put it back into the banking system.

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  1. A
    Anif
    Dec 1, 2016 at 8:56 pm
    Is this author trying to say there is no corruption and black money in India?.lt;br/gt;Demonetization is the best the has happened to country since Liberalization in the 90's.lt;br/gt;Typical Indian atude no good deed by an Indian PM is left unpunished, just make up stories and make fun.
    Reply
    1. N
      Nh
      Dec 1, 2016 at 8:19 am
      Feku cheating poor Indians again...what a state?
      Reply
      1. R
        ramji
        Dec 1, 2016 at 11:19 pm
        according to Amit shah BJP has more than 110000000 members .Each one of them contributed only 50 paisa through their credit card towards election fund of Modi ji.
        Reply
        1. N
          Nathan
          Dec 2, 2016 at 1:21 am
          NO GOOD DEED GOES UNPUNISHED. PRIME MINISTER MODIJI CANNOT OWN RESPONSIBILITY FOR FAILURE IN PLANNING AT RBI. IT IS THE GRAVE MISTAKE OF GOVERNOR OF RBI AND OFFICIALS OF RESERVE BANK OF INDIA THEY HAVE TO BE SQUARELY BLAMED FOR THE AVOIDABLE HARDSHIPS THAT PEOPLE ARE PUT INTO. POOR AND LACK OF PLANNING BY RBI HAS RESULTED IN THE GREATlt;br/gt;HARDSHIP TO COMMON MEN.
          Reply
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            Arjun
            Dec 1, 2016 at 9:10 am
            Demonetisation has flopped, thats why liar modi is now speaking of income declaration scheme once again. His main aim was UP and punjab polls and hurting SP, BSP. But these parties booked the bank managers itself ams converted black to white.
            Reply
            1. A
              Ajay G
              Dec 1, 2016 at 10:16 am
              This justifies the latest Income Tax Amendment. Money already deposited with banks since 8th November may have a portion of untaxed money or unduly taxed money.
              Reply
              1. A
                AK
                Dec 1, 2016 at 9:12 am
                How can figure be Rs 8,44,962 crore when notes are RS 500/- and 1000/-
                Reply
                1. B
                  Bhakt
                  Dec 1, 2016 at 3:50 pm
                  After much celebrated surgical strike, each day, Jawans are being killed at border.
                  Reply
                  1. B
                    Bhakt
                    Dec 1, 2016 at 3:48 pm
                    Ignorance of these poor people will come to haunt Modi in UP and Punjab elections.
                    Reply
                    1. A
                      amit jammu
                      Dec 1, 2016 at 7:46 am
                      If this thing come out to be true, Govt and its policy makers have made the biggest ber of their political career. W country will like see what comes out in the new year.
                      Reply
                      1. A
                        anil bharali
                        Dec 1, 2016 at 11:45 pm
                        PM Modi's policy of deception on war on black money is going on to rescue the great Indian thieves Ambani , Adani mostly Gujubhai thieves from the burden of NPAs who are on this game plan.
                        Reply
                        1. A
                          anil bharali
                          Dec 1, 2016 at 11:45 pm
                          PM Modi's policy of deception on war on black money is going on to rescue the great Indian thieves Ambani , Adani mostly Gujubhai thieves from the burden of NPAs who are on this game plan.
                          Reply
                          1. A
                            Ankx
                            Dec 1, 2016 at 9:06 am
                            Correction CRR has been revised to 100% .lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;
                            Reply
                            1. A
                              ashok s
                              Dec 1, 2016 at 10:21 am
                              Maximum comments writers have a very little knowledge of crr and other instruments. I request I e to make peoples understand that first so that they can get ready by govt digital process.
                              Reply
                              1. A
                                ashok s
                                Dec 2, 2016 at 3:13 am
                                Aadhar card should be only valid proof for all the transaction like issuance of pport, ration cards, election card , opening of bank account etc etc . no other doxs should be accepted
                                Reply
                                1. A
                                  ashok s
                                  Dec 2, 2016 at 3:06 am
                                  Even Mr venkaiya naidu accepted that their were many loops in implementing the demonetization process
                                  Reply
                                  1. A
                                    ashok s
                                    Dec 2, 2016 at 3:09 am
                                    Giving multiple windows like petrol pump, trusts, airlines, hospitals , house wives, and top of it over the counter exchange laid to failure of demonetization
                                    Reply
                                    1. A
                                      ashok s
                                      Dec 2, 2016 at 3:11 am
                                      In a country where one can make multiple I'd proofs , pa n cards , it is easy to fool
                                      Reply
                                      1. A
                                        ashok s
                                        Dec 2, 2016 at 1:48 am
                                        Still government can save its face if I.t dept send notices to those who have deposits over 2.5 lacs through out the financial year. And slap them with tax notices . this is mid match .
                                        Reply
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                                          ashok s
                                          Dec 1, 2016 at 9:22 am
                                          Giving petrol pump, trusts, hospitals on humanitarians ground was another loop or deliberate window for bm holder
                                          Reply
                                          1. A
                                            ashok s
                                            Dec 1, 2016 at 8:50 am
                                            Superb, thanks
                                            Reply
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