Two options on Doklam standoff: Let Bhutan troops replace India’s, wait until November

The option of a prolonged standoff is based on the premise, sources said, that the Chinese would not like to escalate the situation to a military conflict.

Written by Sushant Singh | New Delhi | Updated: August 4, 2017 5:19 am
doklam standoff, indian army china, china troops bhutan, india china bhutan issue, india china relations, xi jinping, indian express news Sources have told The Indian Express that India wants to resolve the crisis peacefully but is very clear about not letting the Chinese construct a motorable road to Jampheri.

As the standoff between Indian and Chinese troops at Doklam at the trijunction with Bhutan continues, the government is working hard on two diplomatic options to resolve the crisis. The first option involves Bhutan, wherein its soldiers replace Indian troops in the standoff, leading to a mutual disengagement by China and Bhutan. The second option is of prolonging the standoff until November, till after the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, when de-escalation can take place through quiet diplomacy.

Sources have told The Indian Express that India wants to resolve the crisis peacefully but is very clear about not letting the Chinese construct a motorable road to Jampheri. Consultations by the government ever since National Security Advisor Ajit Doval returned from Beijing last week have included experts, including a former Indian envoy to China.

The first option under serious consideration involves replacing Indian troops on Dolam plateau with soldiers of the Royal Bhutan Army, which is then followed by mutual withdrawal by the Chinese and Bhutanese troops. By addressing the Chinese complaint of Indian troops on Bhutanese soil, this option gives Beijing a face-saver to withdraw its troops while meeting New Delhi’s aim of preventing Chinese road construction.

The drawback in this option, sources said, is “coordination issues” with Bhutan which New Delhi will have to overcome deftly. These issues pertain not only to logistics of simultaneous Indian and Bhutanese troop movement, but also Chinese acceptance of the proposal. Although New Delhi is confident of Bhutanese support at this point, there is fear that this could provide Thimphu the impetus to eventually start engaging with Beijing directly, and have diplomatic ties with China. Bhutan currently does not have diplomatic ties with any of the five permanent member (P-5) countries of the UN Security Council.

The fears about Bhutan are also driven by the 2013 experience when Thimphu tried to craft a “balanced” foreign policy, which translates into diplomatic ties with China. The then NSA, Shivshankar Menon, and Foreign Secretary, Sujatha Singh, had to fly to Thimphu to dissuade Bhutan from pursuing that course. While this option is being considered, the second option of prolonging the standoff till November currently finds greater favour within the government. As winter sets in, the weather in the area deteriorates by November, making any military action, or even road construction, difficult.

More importantly, the National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be over by November which will then allow Chinese President Xi Jinping to bring down the rhetoric needed for political support in the Congress. This would then create an environment where mutual de-escalation can take place and a way out can be found through diplomatic engagement by both sides.

The option of a prolonged standoff is based on the premise, sources said, that the Chinese would not like to escalate the situation to a military conflict. New Delhi has already demonstrated its will by stopping the Chinese road construction and has shown great diplomatic maturity by not publicly responding to provocative Chinese statements over the past five weeks. This means that the status quo can continue till November when a solution is arrived at. It is a course of action seen as most likely by many foreign embassies, including some of the P-5 countries.

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  1. T
    Aug 9, 2017 at 6:46 am
    So dhoval babu khalihaath baapis brahmos he bachein hein dekho aggla 10 days mein kya hota hein chinion ki taraff se aur hna yadav ko Pakistan se churah paya kya ?bareh wakillon ne.....
    1. K
      Kushal Kumar
      Aug 6, 2017 at 6:52 am
      This Vedic astrology writer’s article " 2017 - an opportune year for India with major worrisome concerns in February-March and August-September" issued widely to Indian news media in November 2016 had said this : - " AUGUST-SEPTEMBER OR NEAR ABOUT LOOKS TO BE PRESENTING WAR OR BIG TERROR , COULD ALSO BE THROUGH SEA, IN NORTH SOMEWHERE NEAR LEH-LADAKH”. Similar major worrisome concerns of war in the global context including India were expressed in this writer's article of 16 May 2017 - " Is World War III round the corner ?" - published in the Summer (June) 2017 issue of The Astrologer's Notebook from North Port , Florida , which read as : " The global events predicted in this article could likely begin to show up in mild measure from about 24 June and after to grow up gradually for a final show during 19 August to 4 September in 2017". READERS MAY FIND THAT THREAT OF TWO WEEKS ON 5 AUGUST 2017 BY CHINESE OFFICIAL MEDIA REACHES OUT NEAR 19 AUGUST 2017.
      1. S
        Aug 5, 2017 at 11:59 am
        Those who are just comparing China-India in terms of military power, technological advances and economical might of both nations, they are ignoring that the war may not be as simple as everyone depicting. None of the country will surely be in a winnig situation because both China and India have nuke weapons. Imagine what could happen if both engage in a nuclear warfare! The world will automatically dragged into the war because the impact of the nulear war will not be limited only upto two countries. India may have less nuclear weapons as compared to China but that doesn't matter, the radiation of the present day nuclear bombs (which are 1000 times distructive than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki) will envolope the whole world.
        1. S
          San Mann
          Aug 5, 2017 at 7:34 am
          Replacing Bhutan's troops for India's means that China will prevail and get its road built to Doklam, thus putting India's Chicken Neck at risk. Officials who entertain such suggestions should be fired.
          1. H
            Aug 5, 2017 at 2:05 am
            India must not budge by psychological Chinese threats. It is the calling of resolve. Chinese are invaders so they must pull back first. If Modi government yields to Chinese threat will send message of ever weak and scared nation. It is the time to show true strength of a nation. Kai Hind.
            1. K
              Kamal Pasha
              Aug 5, 2017 at 3:50 pm
              Hair : If you think China is invader and refuses to withdraw, the trouble maker India must fight China and get herself destroyed. The whole of South Asia will be so peaceful afterwards.
            2. Z
              Aug 4, 2017 at 11:28 pm
              If India really wants security promise from China and not face-saving, the best option is to withdraw the troops now, and China may give the security promise India concerned. China has declared that, firstly withdraw troops then we talk about the issues, (including the security concerns of India). But seems India has not understood this sign so far, and is willing to push the situation towards a war.... I think both China and India do not want a war? And frankly speaking, India can not win a war with China. The PLA is prepared aiming at a superpower in the world, and I think the capacity of Indian army is still far from that superpower, so how to hope to win China? Now China has developed cruise missiles, satellite positioning system, precise guidance bombs, precision ballistic missiles, etc. asymmetric weapon with a range from 1500km to 3000km. And even a rocket missile can have a precision of 0-5m because it has guidance...
              1. S
                Sailesh Akkaraju
                Aug 5, 2017 at 12:56 pm
                Zhao, your English is hard to understand. Know your History. Do not look up 1962 Indo-China War, look up 1967 Indo-China war. Also look up Mallacca Strait. This is a lose-lose situation for China. Oh, I forgot, your only news comes from state controlled media. And yes while we are on the topic of war, India has a battle tested army, It has been at war for many years with your terrorist haven friends on the west. China only has drills. India will not start this war, but it will definitely finish it.
              2. J
                Aug 4, 2017 at 10:28 pm
                China and India needs to push the diplomatic throttle to the max and must start discussing and settle Issues amicably. Gone are the days of bullying and bluff. Rivalry between two nations will only cost both India and China dearly, instead - but sincere co operation and mutual respect can take Asia and the whole world into a golden period of renaissance. Having said this, the ball is in China's court and both India and China should swallow the false pride and start co operating in a g er scale. Till such time the Chinese cannot be trusted and their psy - war of the stick n carrot should be ignored , and the recent buttery articles in their state owned media should be treated lightly -and we shall remain on eternal guard against any sly attempts by the Chinese - and guard our dearest friend Bhutan from any potential aggression of any kind - at all costs.
                1. J
                  Aug 4, 2017 at 10:27 pm
                  The post cold-war scenario we can saw the Sino-Russian embrace - ignoring past rivalries, similarly India-Us tango - well we all know the US was a bitter enemy during the heights of cold war , but today US is as much as an ally of India as Russia is. One fact remains - permanent interests prevails - countries do change perceptions and at udes towards one another as a result of the generational shifts of at udes and interests. By antagonizing India, what are the Chinese going to achieve in Asia? A war between the two Asian ans can turn really nasty and would mean mutually assured destruction , and moving back a few decades - for both parties concerned. Without considering and respecting India's interests and concerns - the Chinese renaissance will remain a mirage!
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