Even BJP legislature party leader and former deputy CM Sushil Kumar Modi had not been expected his party to touch 30-seat mark that looks likely now. Lalu Prasad, who had been able to consolidate Muslim and Yadav votes, perhaps could not add votes of other sections. Nitish Kumar, who looked to have given up much before the results, knew it pretty well that he had lost the winning social combination after split with BJP.
Narendra Modi wave in Bihar meant that BJP got votes from a large part of EBCs and youths across caste lines and also got some chunk of Yadav voters, which was bonus for BJP. While all three leading parties claimed to have EBCs (30 per cent of Bihar population) votes, the trends and results indicate that EBCs might well have played the decisive role in clinching it for BJP. Young voters, who had been very vocal right from the start of poll campaign, would have been surely the second bigger factor for Bihar that also looks almost pan-Indian phenomenon.
The biggest challenge for Nitish Kumar is to save the state government.
There have already been hints of rumblings in the party with senior leaders like Narendra Singh not thinking on the same lines as Nitish Kumar. Sharad Yadav’s likely defeat in Madhepura might further disturb equations in the party.
BJP’s alliance partners LJP and RLSP also look to have contributed immensely to BJP’s defeat and in a way made up loss of alliance partner like JD (U).