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PM Narendra Modi in Davos, India gets IMF boost: At 7.4%, can be fastest growing this year

In its global growth prospects survey, released on the eve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to a global audience here, the IMF said that India could grow at 7.8% in 2019.

Written by Shaji Vikraman | Davos | Updated: January 23, 2018 4:33 am
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Switzerland, Monday. (Photo Source: The PM’s Instagram handle)

ON A cold, dreary day marked by heavy snowfall at this Swiss ski resort, a traffic pile-up on the road from Zurich to Davos disrupted the schedule of delegates arriving for the World Economic Forum. But the Indian delegation was basking in the glow of the International Monetary Fund’s projection that India could emerge as the fastest-growing country in the world in 2018 at 7.4 per cent, leaving China behind at 6.6 per cent.

In its global growth prospects survey, released on the eve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to a global audience here, the IMF said that India could grow at 7.8% in 2019. For the Indian delegation, the numbers came as an endorsement of the assessment that India is on track to shake off the disruptive effects of the note ban in 2016 and the glitches in implementation of the GST last year.

The numbers are expected to bolster the case of the government, which is seeking to engage further with global investors to showcase the country’s investment potential and ease of doing business. They also follow the recent improvement in India’s rankings, up to 100 on the pecking order, by the World Bank.

Also Read | In Davos, two Prime Ministers, two contexts

The IMF’s projection, presented by its chief Christian Lagarde Monday, comes on top of the World Bank’s assessment of India growing at a faster clip in 2018 at a time when the country’s statistics office has projected that the economy may grow only 6.5 % in fiscal 2018 — the lowest in the three-year term of this government.

The projection of a growth uptick couldn’t have come at a more opportune time — before Modi met several members of the International Business Council after arriving in Davos Monday.

PM Narendra Modi arrives in Zurich. (Source: Twitter/PMO)

It also comes on the eve of the World Economic Forum meeting, with the global economy enjoying a growth spike with increased trade and investment, exactly a decade after the financial crisis of 2008. The IMF has raised the global growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 3.9 per cent, and a notch higher for Europe, especially with the sharp corporate tax cuts announced by the Donald Trump administration — from 35 per cent to 21 per cent.

A hike in global growth matters significantly for India — and not just because of the prospects for exports. When global growth was high in the years before 2008, the country benefited in terms of trade, investment and capital flows leading to an average growth of over 8 per cent in the first five years of the UPA government. But the flip side could be that with the tax break, US firms may be tempted to put in more money and create more jobs in their country.

OPINION | At Davos, India needs to outline its vision to make growth inclusive

However, a dampener was the WEF’s annual inclusive index, which placed India at 62, far below countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and China in terms of inclusive growth. The index reflects progress on growth and development, inclusion and inter-generational equity. and takes into account living standards, environmental sustainablity and protection of future generations from indentedness.

A sobering touch also came from PWC survey of over 1300 CEOs, which listed the US at the top as the most attractive market in 2018 folllowed by China — India was at the fifth spot.

In Davos, what India is expected to pitch again is an economy on the growth path, an attractive market in a host of sectors and a young nation. The pitch by the Prime Minister comes at a time when there is little room for a stimulus — fiscal or monetary — with bets on whether the government will be able to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.2 per cent for this fiscal.

Many here are also looking for a signal from Modi of his government’s reform intentions, and engagement with investors and the world. With around 15 months to go for this government to complete its five-year term, it’s all set to present its last full-fledged Budget.

India’s top business and banking leaders will be here when the Prime Minister reaches out to global corporate chiefs and executives. Tata Group chairman N Chandrasekharan, Wipro’s Azim Premji, ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar and SBI chief Rajnish Kumar arrived in Davos Monday.

Providing a global perspective on new economic narratives will be former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, who is now teaching at Chicago University’s Booth School of Business, and Robert Shiller, with sessions on cyber security, climate changes and big data among the subjects on the agenda.

The government’s three-year term has been marked by relative fiscal conservatism in the face of demands for a stimulus to revive growth, which has slipped since 2015-16. In Davos, investors are bound to ask questions, especially given the agrarian crisis in many parts of the country and rising demand to address the issue of farm prices. The other challenge for a growth pick-up is higher oil prices.

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  1. Devendra Mohanty
    Jan 23, 2018 at 1:11 pm
    IMF's growth forecast for India looks like a manufactured number as even domestic ins utions like RBI, CMIE, Asian Development Bank and industry bodies which give regular forecasts have not come with such numbers. Another report from WEF, where Prime Minister Modi is to address, placed India below Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and China in inclusive growth index. This news even Indian Express buried it inside giving an impression that it has also joined paid media club.
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    1. blackpower 666
      Jan 23, 2018 at 1:24 pm
      now IMF is known ans Intl Monetary FundFaking
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    2. blackpower 666
      Jan 23, 2018 at 1:01 pm
      FAKENDRANATH fakes away but the S-H-I-T is not fake for india is head and shoulders above everyone when it comes to faeces. anyone that visits india -gets out of the plane or train the first thing that hits you is the smell - smell of faeces, smell of gaumatha dung, smell of gaumatha p!ss, garbage, filth. 500 millyun sheet openly while bangladesh has eradicated open defecation s: i.redd.it/8mi1klyeqzkz.png
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      1. Michelle:: Vedic::human
        Jan 23, 2018 at 12:46 pm
        Why is Rahul Gandhi Not Yet Married?,----Rahul Gandhi now 48yrs old met for the very first time to Veronique Cartelli a Spanish-Colombian who was a daughter of a drug lord Colombian Cartelli, Veronique dumped RA-H0LE after getting caught with drugs and questioned in Boston airport America in 2001,--RA-HOLE didn't even touch Veronique and she was surprised the reason why,--then RA-H0LE met the daughter of the late Afghanistan king Mohamed Zahir Shah’s g-r-a-n-d daughter Noal Zaher,----Noal Zaher dumped RA-H0LE after meeting with him for 2 or 3 times and Noal Zaher got happily married to Prince Muhammad of Egypt,---later it was disclosed by both girls RA H0LE met,---that RA-H0LE is IMPOTENT and that RA-H0LE is just a good looking guy and nothing more like a real man,-this is the hidden truth of RA-H0LE not getting into marriage,---Jai hind.
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        1. blackpower 666
          Jan 23, 2018 at 12:58 pm
          why did Modi desert Jasoben? several clues are pointer - the way Modi hugs every male head of state openly and shamelessly, passionately, huggingly lovingly but he never does that to female heads of state just a quick handshake! it is there for all to see. ever since modi saw the open ga y drill of khaki hotpants, cthru banian, carnal cap and sekstoy danda - he was seduced and found his ga y calling...and the rest is ga y history and today he is a proud member of the worlds largest ga y org (GGG gau gobar the motto)
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          1. blackpower 666
            Jan 23, 2018 at 1:02 pm
            the e G's of RSS GGG - ga y gau gobar
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        2. Michelle:: Vedic::human
          Jan 23, 2018 at 12:40 pm
          CONGIE and fake Gandhi dynasty rule and scam card report:-AMETHI housing scam,--Agusta chopper scam,--herald scam,--2g scam,--3g scam,--Vadra Swiss mansion scam,---Sonia tax evasion scam,--Vadra land grabbing scam,--cHUDambram money laundering scam,----cHUDambram excel Marcil scam,----Antony weapon deal scam,--BOFORS scam,---coal scam,--Swiss black money scam,--Sonia charity loot scam,---Sheila Dixie CWG scam--2009 sat-yam scam,--Tat-ra truck scam,-taRun GogoI vision asan-mission asan 30cr RPS scam,--2011 cash for vote scam,---a-dar-sh scam,--2012 Robert Vadra illegal Bikaner land purchasing scam--2012 PM MMS appointed CBI director AP Singh and moien Qu-re-Shi meat export and money extorting scam--2013 IPL scam--2013 Oomen CHANDY solar scam--2012 robert Vadra. And Sanjay bandari arms dealing scam,---2014 kart1 chudambram,Sachin pilot Rajasthan ambulance scam,---love jihad scam,--dynasty rule scam--etcetc,--CONGIES have got the highest level degree of SCAM certificate,--Jai hind.
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          1. blackpower 666
            Jan 23, 2018 at 12:52 pm
            now we all know why india is ranked #1 in open defecation - because saffronites like michelle X X X also defecate openly thru their mouths - india ranks#1 in sheet in the world beyond compare in fact unfair comparison with any other nation - s: i.redd.it/8mi1klyeqzkz.png
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            1. blackpower 666
              Jan 23, 2018 at 12:54 pm
              Now you now why Ga y Modi hugs every male (but not female) jasoben learnt the hard way - BJP WELCOMES THE CORRUPT WITH OPEN ARMS - >On 03 November 2017, in West Bengal, Mukul Roy, one of the founding leaders of Trinamool Congress (TMC), officially joined BJP. This decision comes a week after the Enforcement Directorate (ED) had summoned Mukul Roy along with three other TMC leaders in connection with the Narada sting case >In August, 2015, Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader from Assam, who supposedly has a good hold in North East state politics, joined BJP. He is currently serving as the Assam Health Minister in the BJP Government in the state. It is surprising that just one month before his defection, in July 2015, BJP had alleged that he was a ‘key suspect’ in Guwahati water scam which came to light in 2010
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              1. blackpower 666
                Jan 23, 2018 at 12:55 pm
                >Pema Khandu, along with 32 MLAs of Peoples’ Party of Arunachal (PPA) joined the BJP leading to the formation of a full-fledged BJP government in December 2016. Reportedly, Khandu was facing charges of “corruption and criminal conspiracies”
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              2. blackpower 666
                Jan 23, 2018 at 12:52 pm
                FEKU SCAMS IN GUJARAT ATTN GOBAR-BRAINED BHAKTS (1) FISHERIES SCAM: The 400 Crores fisheries scam. Contracts were awarded to favourite parties without inviting tender. (2) AANGANWADI SCAM: Two bidders apparently formed a cartel and bid for supplying supplementary Nutrition Extruded Fortified Blended Food (EFBF) to Anganwadis with Government collusion. Contracts worth Rs. 500 Crores kept getting awarded to a handful of contractors, particularly Kota Dal Mills and Muruliwala Agrotech. The State continued to do this despite a 2006 Apex court warning to decentralise food production and a 2010 Gujarat High Court order which noted that the contracts were a violation of Supreme Court rulings. (3) SSY SCAM: The Rs. 500 crore Sujalam Sufalam Yojana Rice scam. The Rs. 6237.33 crore Sujalam Sufalam Yojana (SSY) announced in 2003 was to be completed by 2005. Public accounts Committee of Gujarat assembly unanimously prepared a report indicating a scam
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              3. Devendra Mohanty
                Jan 23, 2018 at 12:23 pm
                Oh God! Has he gone there to get photographed on the Swiss mountains?
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                1. blackpower 666
                  Jan 23, 2018 at 12:25 pm
                  it is known as onanism
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