THE SOUTHWEST monsoon, which is delayed by over a week now, continues to make a ‘slow’ progress northwards.
On Wednesday, though monsoon advanced into some parts of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, but has stayed put along Valsad and Nashik in the west for over 10 days now. Rainfall has been largely below normal over most parts of Maharashtra, barring Konkan, which has been reporting isolated incidents of heavy spells. Pune and neighbouring areas are, currently, deficient of 68-mm rainfall, since monsoon arrived on June 12. Officials at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, said monsoon will progress only around June 23, for which weather conditions have been favourable.
Experts have also attributed the prevalence of an anticyclone system since the onset of monsoon on May 30 over Kerala.
“What remains peculiar about this anticyclone is that it has been lingering in the northern region of Arabian Sea. This largely prevented monsoon winds from entering the mainland. Now that this system is moving northwards, monsoon is expected to make an advance,” said AK Srivastava, head, Climate Monitoring and Analysis, IMD.
Monsoon is yet to arrive over Dhule, Nardurbar, Jalgaon, Buldhana, Akola, Amravati, Wardha, Nagpur, Bhandara, Gondia and Washim.
Rainfall deficiencies in these regions are rising rapidly, with Nagpur (50 per cent), Bhandara (62 per cent), Nandurbar (34 per cent) being the most dry regions in the northern belt of the state.
Asked about the likelihood of rains over Maharashtra, weather experts said, “Not much change is expected until early next week. Except for some spells over Konkan, remaining regions will remain dry.”
Under normal conditions, monsoon should have arrived in Uttar Pradesh and other central states by now, they added.
“Since June is the month for onset of monsoon and mostly passes in covering three-quarters of the land, slightly deficient rainfall can be accepted climatologically. June contributes about 12 -15 per cent of the seasonal rainfall,” added another senior IMD official.
However, July and August are rendered crucial, as they amount to the major chunk of the rainfall, nearly 35 per cent of the seasonal rainfall.