With the first week of monsoon having seen good rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that the four-month season was likely to bring more rain than it had earlier believed.
In its second-stage forecast for the June-September monsoon season, released on Tuesday, the IMD said the country as a whole was likely to receive 98 per cent of normal rainfall. In April, it had forecast 96 per cent rain for the season. Both the forecasts have a model error of four per cent.
The IMD said there was a 63 per cent probability that the country would receive at least 96 per cent of normal rainfall.
More heartening is the fact that rainfall is likely to be evenly distributed across all geographical regions. Central India is expected to receive 100 per cent rainfall, while the southern peninsular region is likely to get 99 per cent rain. Northwest India and northeast India are both likely to get 96 per cent rain.
“The picture that is emerging as of now is looking very good. All areas in the country are likely to get good rainfall, near their normal levels. This does not happen very often,” said IMD Director General K J Ramesh.
Another climate model that the IMD has been running for the last few years in experimental mode is actually predicting 100 per cent rain, with a model error of 5 per cent, a statement from IMD said.
The monsoon season accounts for nearly 75 per cent of India’s annual rainfall. During this time, the country, as a whole, receives about 89 cm of rainfall. Barring Tamil Nadu, which receives a bulk of its annual rainfall in winter, almost the entire country has rainy season during these months.
In the latest forecast, the IMD also gave the likely distribution of rainfall in July and August, the two rainiest months within the season. Rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of normal value in July and 99 per cent in August.
The arrival of monsoon on the Kerala coast, that signals the start of the season, happened two days earlier than the normal date of June 1. Moving northwards after that, monsoon has now covered almost entire Kerala and many parts of Tamil Nadu.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and southwest Bay of Bengal, some parts of central Arabian Sea, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and south coastal Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of west-central and north Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya and some parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal during next three days,” the IMD said.
In the first week of monsoon, the country received 20.9 mm of rainfall overall, which is five per cent more than the normal of 19.9 mm. The extra precipitation has happened mainly in the northeastern states which have received 36 per cent more rain than normal. Southern peninsula, barring Kerala, and central India have actually received 20 per cent less rain than normal.