MoES mulls using dynamical model for monsoon forecast

h the monsoon forecast to be issued between April 25-27,the Ministry of Earth Sciences is deliberating on using a dynamical model readied by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology for issuing monsoon forecast as against the present statistical model.

Written by Nisha Nambiar | Published:April 20, 2012 1:34 am

With the monsoon forecast to be issued between April 25-27,the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) is deliberating on using a dynamical model readied by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for issuing monsoon forecast as against the present statistical model.

Dr Rajeevan from the ministry who was in Pune to attend the third South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF),told Newsline that even though the current dynamical model was used on an experimental basis,it is being planned to integrate it in the present monsoon forecast soon.

“It is being discussed to use this model in the coming years. The experimental forecasts using this model — Climate Forecasting System (CFS) — developed by the US and now being implemented in IITM is being looked at being used in issuing forecast for the coming years. We are working towards it,’’said Rajeevan.

With the present forecast being issued using the statistical model,he said that for the first time the CFS model —T383 high resolution dynamical model’s experimental forecast too will be issued in the present forecast to be issued in the next week.

Dr Pai from the National Climate Centre who will be issuing the forecast said that these models are being worked upon and efforts are on to integrate the model in the forecast.

With the MET department looking at better accuracy,the model is being developed using more data.

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