The end of the 11-year-old alliance between the BJP and the BJD may prove to be a lot more costly for the saffron party than Naveen Patnaik’s Orissa-oriented regional outfit.
To start with,the BJP move to withdraw support to a government that has already completed its tenure is nothing more than an exercise in futility,according to political analysts.
The step is also not likely to achieve President’s Rule in the state ahead of the Lok Sabha polls as Patnaik seems all set to win the trust vote in the 147-member assembly on March 11.
He has garnered the backing of one MLA each from the CPI(M) and CPI,two from the NCP,four from the JMM and seven independents,besides 61 from his own party to cobble together a strength of 76,two more than the requisite number.
While at the national level,the BJD’s snapping ties with BJP is being seen as a blow to L K Advani’s prime ministerial aspirations,at the state level,Patnaik by dumping the saffron party is expected to improve his secular credentials which took a beating after the anti-Christian riots in Khandamal,the analysts feel. Given that the 2008 Khandamal civic poll results indicated that the BJP had lost popular ground,the BJD’s pulling away seems to be less about seat sharing differences and more about ensuring that it can come to power again with the help of secular allies such as the left,NCP,JMM and others.
At the national level,the snapping of BJP-BJD ties does seem to be a “game changer” – the term that CPI(M)’s Prakash Karat has used to describe the Orissa development. At one go,it may not help BJP’s plans to emerge as leader of the largest combination post-elections,while making the “Third Front” project looks a lot more real than what it seemed earlier,the analysts say.
The BJD’s lurch towards the Left may seem to be an alliance made on the rebound,but it would certainly not have done so if it was not convinced that the costs of a tie-up with the BJP is possibly more than the benefits.
The alliance had yielded rich dividends to both the parties in all the assembly and Lok Sabha elections that the two had fought together in the past,so the break up is certainly not because of some minor differences of one or two seats here or there,they feel.