There will be above average rainfall this monsoon, announces Met Department

"After two successive years of deficient rainfall, Monsoon 2016 is expected to be good and the country will receive 106 per cent rainfall," said LS Rathore, DG IMD, in a press conference.

Written by Amitabh Sinha | New Delhi | Updated: April 13, 2016 12:34 pm
monsoon, monsoon 2016, India rainfall, weather forecast India, rain, imd, imd forecast, rainfall this year, drought, “An above normal monsoon is expected,” Rathore told the media.

It was a good news the government couldn’t wait to share. Amid prevailing drought and severe drinking water crisis in many parts of the country, the meteorological department Tuesday said this year’s monsoon season was likely to bring very good rainfall.

In its first forecast for this monsoon season, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said rainfall in the four-month period of June to September was likely to be 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA). This LPA, the average of monsoon rain over the 50-year period from 1951 to 2001, comes to 89 cm and is considered normal. So this season, the country as a whole is likely to receive about 94 cm of rainfall.

The forecast is likely to bring widespread cheer in the country, which is reeling under a drought after two successive years of highly deficient rainfall during monsoon season. That was probably the reason the Met department advanced the announcement of its forecast by about two weeks, the earliest it has issued it in the last 10 years. The first forecast for the monsoon is generally issued in the third or fourth week of April. Only once since 2010 has the forecast been announced before April 20. That was in 2011, when it was issued on April 19.

Watch: IMD Predicts Above Normal Monsoon Rainfall: Its Significance

IMD follows up with another detailed forecast at the end of May, when it also predicts regional and monthly distribution of rainfall during the season.

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But such was the excitement to share the good news that IMD director general L S Rathore pre-empted the second forecast and said that the rainfall was likely to be evenly distributed over the entire country. In response to specific queries, he said the Marathwada region, which is experiencing the worst impact of drought, was likely to receive good rainfall during the monsoon. Rathore said only the northeastern region and some parts of southeastern peninsular region in Tamil Nadu were likely to receive relatively less rainfall. He also said that all four months were likely to be wet and bring at least normal rainfall.

The monsoon had produced only 88 per cent rain in 2014 and 86 per cent in 2015. The previous time such drought had happened for two successive years was in 1986-87.

The IMD said the forecast was nearly certain, with 94 per cent probability that the rainfall would be least 96 per cent of the LPA. There was only one per cent probability of it being below 90 per cent of the LPA.

The weakening of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean and strengthening of Indian Ocean Dipole are among the main reasons for a strong probability of good rainfall. The El Nino phenomenon, the abnormal heating of sea surface in equatorial Pacific Ocean, was blamed for the sub-normal performance of monsoon rain in the last two years. The El Nino continues to prevail but is showing signs of weakening.

“Analysis of previous data suggests that monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole was deficient or below normal (less than 96 per cent of LPA) during 65 per cent of El Nino years. However, during 71 per cent of the years followed by El Nino years, monsoon was normal and above (more than 96 per cent of LPA). The latest forecast from the monsoon mission coupled climate model indicates that El Nino condition is likely to weaken to moderate or weak levels during the first half of the monsoon season and ENSO neutral condition is likely to get established thereafter,” the IMD said in its forecast.

ENSO neutral condition refers to the state when the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are normal.

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  1. S
    Sirius
    Apr 12, 2016 at 12:59 pm
    That's o.k. ! Eradicating poverty by 2022 is a shared vision of all Indians ...
    Reply
    1. S
      Sirius
      Apr 12, 2016 at 11:58 am
      Though the models predict a good monsoon as of today, IMD should keep updating its model with newer data as the Monsoon progresses . They owe to Indians the most updated trends so that scientific processes can be practiced in agriculture , irrigations and reservoir management ...
      Reply
      1. H
        Haradhan Mandal
        Apr 12, 2016 at 3:00 pm
        "Agriculture, which contributes 15 per cent to India’s GDP and employs about 60 per cent of the country’s potion, is heavily dependent on the monsoon as only 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation." 60% of the potion of India produces (ONLY) 15 per cent to India’s GDP - and how much of that 15% of the GDP (computed at W price at the Mandi) they get??? 1.5% of the GDP??? subtract their INPUT cost(seed, fertiliser, diesel, pesticide, transportation cost) , LABOR Cost etc (if any) further????
        Reply
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          adarsh gowda
          Apr 13, 2016 at 12:16 pm
          lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;Read till the end !! Goods luck People!!
          Reply
          1. A
            adarsh gowda
            Apr 13, 2016 at 12:18 pm
            What I found a strong bias towards was maintaining that warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean basin,” he said.lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;Streit believes that will result in a third consecutive year of below average monsoon rainfall, al-though it shouldn’t be nearly as bad as last year.lt;br/gt;lt;br/gt;“It wouldn’t surprise me if we had something that fell down in the minus five percent range,” he said.
            Reply
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              adarsh gowda
              Apr 13, 2016 at 12:17 pm
              Reply
              1. A
                ams
                Apr 12, 2016 at 4:30 pm
                Strict warning to bhakts- This is NOT Modi effect!!!!!
                Reply
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                  Ashutosh Dharmadhikari
                  Apr 13, 2016 at 12:00 pm
                  Doubtful !! Yet long time to go!! Lets hope for the best!!!
                  Reply
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