By 2024, India to overtake China as most populous nation in the world: UN

UN said roughly 83 million people are added to the world's population every year, although there is a continuing decline in fertility rates, which have fallen steadily since the 1960s.

By: AP | United Nations | Updated: June 22, 2017 12:53 pm
World Populations, world population by 2050, UN on World population, latest news, World news, International news, latest news Nigeria, has the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide, and the report projects it will surpass the US shortly before mid-century. (Source: Twitter United Nations handle/@UN)

India’s population is expected to surpass China’s in about seven years and Nigeria is projected to overtake the United States and become the third most populous country in the world shortly before 2050, a UN report said Wednesday. The report by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ Population Division forecasts that the current world population of nearly 7.6 billion will increase to 8.6 billion by 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.

It said roughly 83 million people are added to the world’s population every year and the upward trend is expected to continue even with a continuing decline in fertility rates, which have fallen steadily since the 1960s.

John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division, said at a news conference that the report includes information on the populations of 233 countries or areas of the world.

“The population in Africa is notable for its rapid rate of growth, and it is anticipated that over half of global population growth between now and 2050 will take place in that region,” he said. “At the other extreme, it is expected that the population of Europe will, in fact, decline somewhat in the coming decades.”

The UN agency forecasts that from now through 2050 half the world’s population growth will be concentrated in just 10 countries India, Nigeria, Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, United States, Uganda and Indonesia. That order is based on the 10 countries’ “expected contribution to total growth,” the report said.

During the same period, it added, the populations of 26 African countries are expected to at least double. Nigeria, currently the world’s seventh largest country, has the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide, and the report projects it will surpass the US shortly before mid-century.

The new projections also forecast that China, which currently has 1.4 billion inhabitants, will be replaced as the world’s most populous country around 2024 by India, which now has 1.3 billion inhabitants.

The report, titled “The World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision,” said fertility has been declining in nearly all regions in recent years.

Between 2010 and 2015, Wilmoth said, “the world’s women had 2 1/2 births per woman over a lifetime but this number varies widely around the world.”

“Europe has the lowest fertility level, estimated at 1.6 births per woman in the most recent period, while Africa has the highest fertility, with around 4.7 births per woman,” he said.

The report said birth rates in the 47 least developed countries remain relatively high, with population growth around 2.4 percent a year. While this rate is expected to slow significantly in the coming decades, the UN said the combined population of the 47 countries is projected to increase by 33 percent from roughly 1 billion now to 1.9 billion in 2050.

More and more countries now have fertility rates below the level of roughly 2.1 births per woman needed to replace the current generation, the report said. During the 2010-2015 period, fertility was below the replacement level in 83 countries comprising 46 percent of the world’s population, it said.

The 10 most populous countries with low fertility levels are China, United States, Brazil, Russia, Japan, Vietnam, Germany, Iran, Thailand and United Kingdom, the report said.

In addition to slowing population growth, low fertility levels lead to an older population, the report noted. It forecasts that the number of people aged 60 or above will more than double from the current 962 million to 2.1 billion in 2050 and more than triple to 3.1 billion in 2100.

A quarter of Europe’s population is already aged 60 or over, and that share is projected to reach 35 percent in 2050 then remain around that level for the rest of the century, the report said.

For all the latest India News, download Indian Express App

  1. J
    jhon
    Jun 23, 2017 at 12:06 am
    this will hppn coz gov are busy with cow not with nation
    Reply
    1. A
      arun
      Jun 22, 2017 at 4:13 pm
      A dangerous signal for the nation. Because we all know which community is reproducing like bacteria and virus in huge numbers in India right now. Whether their families are rich or poor, their only goal is to produce minimum of 4-5 kids for each of their 4 wives.
      Reply
      1. C
        ck
        Jun 22, 2017 at 4:54 pm
        constructing ideas are well come for development, but misleading and peace damaging will not helpful. The fact that regular, is their goal is to produce minimum of 4-5 kids for each of their 4 wives ,is not right. These are very rarely happen, almost all have only one wife, although cast can allow them 4. So making this point as a cause is not the valid ground. The attention can be giving for general peaceful ground and more rising economical conditions.
        Reply
        1. J
          Jai hind
          Jun 22, 2017 at 5:21 pm
          Arun when people are really struggling to manage one family with 2 kids who th f is interested in 4 wives .. It's all rubbish fake information fed by ur shakha to spread venom among the people .for their political benefit .. It's true that Islam has such a law..but it's followed in India only before 50 years ... That too is followed by some filthy rich mullah who is possible to afford doing it .. In Sharia law 4 marriage is only allowed to those who could treat each wife equally .... Eg if. ... He is giving a pearl ring to a wife he must give that to all other 3 wife's ... If he is taking a wife for. dinner he must do the same to all other wives . in this modern era who is possible to afford it man ... Show me 10/guys u know who had married ..... U cannot .... So don't p u k e nonsense ... I'm Arabia it's followed just because ....there guy has to pay huge amount to female as meher to marry her...most of the men can't afford it so ... Most of the female remain single.
          Reply
          1. J
            Jai hind
            Jun 22, 2017 at 5:23 pm
            So some.filthy rich Arbab marries 4in the name kf maintaining the balance of marital status ... That's it . in India it s not happening any more. So please don't spread fake information
            Reply
            1. A
              arun
              Jun 22, 2017 at 7:41 pm
              Open your eyes and see the reality before its too late. Ignorance can be a convenience enjoyed by the lazy. And the lazy ones are producing in large numbers and say allah is there to take care... because thats all they know and thats their only mindset. And their real allah is the Congress government rule that has been doling out all reservations and freebies by treating them as vote bank all these years.
          2. D
            Dc
            Jun 22, 2017 at 3:59 pm
            So much population no toilets no health facilities high poverty high illetracy high unployment .be prepared for doomsday . shed your fake belief of being greatest find solutions .
            Reply
            1. C
              ck
              Jun 22, 2017 at 3:40 pm
              It is very sad, if populations are increasing so fast which will surpass from china, although the economy is less than 550 present from them and per capita income is also 550 present less with them. It is better that economy shall be improved double fast from them, which is not any aspect from this regime.
              Reply
              1. I
                indian
                Jun 22, 2017 at 3:39 pm
                Should we feel Proud OR should we feel Concerned. When this Senseless Population Factory reduces it's production !
                Reply
                1. S
                  samir
                  Jun 22, 2017 at 3:29 pm
                  bra-man sanghis breeding like insects and making india filthy.
                  Reply
                  1. C
                    controlpopulation
                    Jun 22, 2017 at 3:10 pm
                    muslims contribution in india is more bcz they produce babies more then any one elese just increase population and to become terrorist to kill non muslims.so we should implement strict birth control to muslims to have onely 2 childrens bcz hindus and others al ready alomost produce 2 child.it is muslims who delievering babies like pigs 4 to 5.also to have only one wife 2 children for that UCC is must be implement.
                    Reply
                    1. D
                      Damodar Biswal
                      Jun 22, 2017 at 3:10 pm
                      Make one child norm compulsory for all.Just don't hear the voices of the pseudo secularists.
                      Reply
                      1. I
                        indian
                        Jun 22, 2017 at 3:41 pm
                        In India Secularism seems to be dangerous than Terrorism. Both are blind haters of Hinduism.
                        Reply
                      2. Load More Comments