The Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted that though El Nino conditions would be at its peak from December to February, it is likely to weaken after that, and by June the effect would be completely neutralised, which is likely to bring in normal monsoon this year.
The trend noticed after every El Nino year is a La Nina condition, which means better rainfall is likely to be seen this year, observed JV Kulkarni, senior meteorologist and World Meteorological Organisation member.
El Nino and La Nina conditions are basically sea surface temperatures in the Pacific ocean along the equator getting warmer or cooler than the normal temperature. These anomalies are the hallmarks of El Nino and La Nina climate cycles which influence weather patterns across the globe.
“NOAA has specified that the output of 16 models-10 dynamical and six statistical-would see the monsoon neutralising by June and so it is expected that this year we would see normal rainfall or even excess. This is according to one of the parameters of sea surface temperatures cooling down as last year it was warming up,” Kulkarni said.
Kulkarni has assessed nearly 40 years of data of El Nino years which have seen the following years receiving good rainfall. “From 1972 to 2010, if an assessment of El Nino conditions are done, we notice that La Nina conditions have seen the following years getting excess rainfall or neutral rainfall and this can be observed this year as well,” he said.
The meteorologist added that La Nina conditions start in May-June and the monsoon should be above normal, and the parameter indicates that the probability of deficit monsoon in 2016 is very low, but the probability of it becoming normal or excess is high.
According to the Climate Prediction Centre outlook, it has been stated that El Nino is expected to remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the winter of 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during late spring or in the early summer of 2016.
A strong El Nino continued during November as indicated by well above average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Nino episode that has matured.