Mumbai to witness sharp decline in economic activity in next 20 years

In revised DP, planners project stake will go down from current 31 per cent to 20 per cent by 2034.

Written by Vishwas Waghmode | Mumbai | Published: May 31, 2016 4:05 am

Mumbai, the country’s financial capital, will witness a sharp drop in economic activity pertaining to the manufacturing and construction sector over the next two decades.

In the city’s revised development plan, planners have projected that the stake of these two sectors in Mumbai’s overall economic chart will go down by 11 percentage points — from 31 per cent currently to 20 per cent — by 2034. In contrast, the share of the services and the hospitality sector will see a sharp rise.

Just as the new development plan focuses on retaining ‘Mumbai’s economic primary sector’, planners conceded that the plan was to mainly incentivise the services and the hospitality industry.

The secondary sector, comprising manufacturing and construction industries, forms 31 per cent.

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And the tertiary sector, comprising the service-related activities includes communications, trade, hospitality, banking and finances, is 68 per cent of the total Net District Domestic Product (NDDP).

As per the civic body’s draft DP, the current share of primary sector (agriculture and allied) is one per cent.

With the primary sector seeing a continuous decline over the last few decades, it is further likely to drop by .05 per cent in next two decades.

The secondary sector will drop by 11 per cent with having its share of 20 per cent in 2034.

The tertiary sector will increase to 80 per cent from current 68 per cent.

City planners said there has been a continuous decline in the primary and secondary sectors with a corresponding increase in tertiary sector over the last four decades.

And assuming this trend to continue, the sectoral projections have been made, said a civic official.

This basically means that the government’s ‘Make In India’ initiative for Mumbai will revolve around the tertiary or the service industry.
To boost economic activity, the BMC has claimed that spatial provisions for setting up an office and commercial spaces on a built-up area of around 10,000 hectare have been made.

Of the total 47,624 hectare, the net developable areas is around 13,337 hectare. Under the ‘Ease of Business’ initiative, the proposal is also to make provision to enable commercial spaces to be let out at cheaper rates.

A survey carried out by the inspector general (registration) under the revenue department had earlier found that the demand for the commercial spaces in Mumbai had been consistently dropping over the last two years.

High-land prices was cited as one of the reasons for this trend.

To cater to the residential demand, the new plan has formulated proposals to increase the residential built-up space in Mumbai to 26,000 hectare.

A survey regarding the city’s existing land use, which was a part of the development plan process, had earlier found that the current residential built-up space in Mumbai was around 10,337 hectare.

The new plan has made provisions for residential, commercial, and amenity spaces on the projection that the city’s population will peak at 12.79 million by 2021, before witnessing a declining trend.

All planning has been done at the peak population level.

vishwas.waghmode@expressindia.com

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  1. Sunder T
    May 31, 2016 at 11:18 am
    I came to Mumbai in 1948 (18 lakhs ), and even today I live in this mega metropolitan magnificent city (which is now 18 million . I have travelled to so many countries, and have lived in London for two years. I find this city is unique due to its location, and way of life. Development is around and you see changes are taking places fast. Infrastructure is good, and climate is perfect, especially during monsoon. I do not know how you say the city will decline. I am hopeful, the city will grow into the 2nd largest in the world, next only to New York. It is because of its people, language, and culture. Best Wishes -
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