Opinion polls divided; many give AAP clear mandate, few predict BJP govt in Delhi

The internal survey by AAP predicted a clear majority for it giving itself 51 seats followed by 15 to BJP.

By: Express News Service | New Delhi | Updated: February 6, 2015 9:45 pm

bedi-kejriwal-lThe opinion polls on Delhi assembly elections look divided with majority projecting clear mandate for Aam Aadmi Party while few predicting a BJP government in Delhi after 15 years.

A poll, carried out by TNS for Economic Times, portend that the AAP is likely to get 36-40 seats in the 70-member Assembly with BJP likely to repeat its 2013 score of 28-32 seats. The AAP vote share will soar to 49%, its best ever showing, the poll predicts. The Congress, considered a non-starter in these polls, will end up with 2-4 seats. The survey was reportedly carried out across 16 constituencies with 3,260 respondents.

Watch: Strength and Weakness of AAP, BJP

On the other hand, a survey by Research and Development Initiative (RDI) gave BJP absolute majority with 41-45 seats. The survey states that AAP is likely to win between 21-25 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly. The vote share projection has given BJP 41 per cent and AAP 36 per cent. Where as, Congress is likely to bag between 0-4 seats with a voteshare of 12 per cent, according to the survey in the last week of January.

However, the survey carried out by ABP news-Nielsen predicted 35 seats for AAP with a vote-share of 37% and 29 seats for the BJP with a corresponding vote-share of 33%. What is noteworthy in this survey is that the AAP draws maximum support from lower-caste groups along with SC/ST communities and Muslims. The latest survey is in stark contrast to the polling firm’s earlier surveys where the BJP had a lead over the AAP.

Hindustan Times, too, has predicted 36-41 seats for Kejriwal’s party with the BJP trailing a close second with 27-32 seats. Congress’s fortunes do not seem to shine even in this poll with the party predicted to win 2-7 seats. A successive defeat in Delhi, where the Congress ruled for 15 long years, will surely dampen the cadre’s morale. A total of 3,578 respondents were queried in the survey with half of them women.

The internal survey by AAP predicted a clear majority for it giving itself 51 seats followed by 15 to BJP and a paltry four seats for Congress and others.

Polling in Delhi will be held on February 7 and the results will be declared on February 10.

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  1. A
    Arun Goyal
    Feb 7, 2015 at 11:33 am
    Jai ho! Vijayee bhav.
    1. R
      Feb 8, 2015 at 8:09 am
      BJP is not hopeful of winning. It is smiling in pvt for the trap it has set. BJP has given away a munility and stolen the national throne for 15 yrs. It will take AAP 10-15 yrs to build national organization & wipe out Congress. Like Kashmir, Punjab will see four cornered contest (BJP will dumpAkalis) Akali,Congress, AAP and BJP which BJP can win easily like in JK. Same in UP, Bihar. It is obvious that AAP will be a non-performer/failure in a Center dependent Delhi state/munility. In short AAP will spread wings nationally and help split votes of SP, BSP,NCP,JDU, TMC, AIADMK and other non BJP parties and eliminate Congress. That means no national challenge to BJP in 2019 or 2024
      1. G
        G.Bagavandoss bagavandoss
        Feb 8, 2015 at 1:16 am
        it is fractured opinion polls verdict by all Medias survey conducted ! let us Waite till counting done? Sun is not going to raise from west direction. Medias's are doing business, it is a temporary pleasure for them to tease the voters and political parties.It is Mayajall created by all Medias. Imam Bhukari's Fatwa was un- wanted . it creates enmity in other communities mind. It creates communal tension ,It will have later adverse reaction. This he can do it in stan , Not in India. It is after all election, nothing going to change all of a sudden if new party is going to form the Govt. Economically down- trodden is always is the sufferer in India . Do you think the AAP Or BJP are going to change the present scenario of slums in Delhi?Not at all. Similar way water electric Road & sanitation are going to improve by changing the Govt. If it has to implement It is from the tax payers amount. Not from any political party . They may try to loot from the money allocated to public use. All over the country the same story is repeating. Nothing new for Delhi people.
        1. K
          Feb 7, 2015 at 7:10 am
          Muslims and Christians have killed or wiped out people of other religions. The Native American people and their culture is no where to seen in America today. The Catholic church dominated Spanish rulers destro Aztec and Inca civilizations in Mexico and Peru. Compared to them India has treated its minorities very well. So we don't need lectures from the Christian or Muslims of these world who are fighting all over the world. They have been fighting for the past 2000 years ever since they came to existence from a same lineage.
          1. R
            Rakesh nanda
            Feb 7, 2015 at 9:07 am
            There are people who are loud , have answer for everything and seen all over the media and then there are ones who are silent workers "Battein kum kaam jayada type: Our choice be clear. Rakesh Brisbane
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