Projecting a better growth outlook for India, global rating agency Moody’s today said the country’s economic growth will be 5 per cent this year and accelerate further in 2015.
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“The growth outlook is more robust for India and Indonesia. For both countries, we forecast GDP growth of around 5 per cent this year, rising to around 5.5-6 per cent in 2015,” Moody’s said in its report ‘Global Macro Outlook 2014-15: Summer Lull: Subdued, But Less Risky Global Growth Likely’.
The higher growth projection for India comes against the backdrop of a new government coming to power with single majority for the first time in three decades.
However, the rating agency said India’s growth estimates are still way lower than the levels seen before global crisis.
“For India in particular, the projected growth rates are still significantly below pre-crisis and well short of the new government’s target to raise growth to 7-8 per cent by 2017-18,” the report said.
Moody’s also said that India and Indonesia would see “more resilient GDP growth”.
Global slowdown along with sluggish domestic economic activities, high interest rates and stubborn inflation pulled down India’s growth to sub 5 per cent in the last two years.
Indian economy is likely to expand in the range of 5.4 to 5.9 per cent this fiscal, as per government estimates.
After recovering in 2009-10 and 2010-11, GDP growth slowed down to decade’s low of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13. It picked up marginally to 4.7 per cent in 2013-14.
The new government, which took charge in May, has initiated various measures to attract more investments and remove bottlenecks in the infrastructure, among others, to boost growth.
The agency’s projection comes a day after Paris-based think tank OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) said that Indian economy is seeing growth momentum.
Moody’s further said high inflation and interest rates as well as a deceleration in exports are likely to weigh on growth in emerging markets.
“In contrast, growth in advanced economies should pick up in 2015 driven by higher business investment, though ongoing deleveraging in the euro area and a preference for holding large cash reserves by companies in the US and the UK will curtail the pace of recovery,” it said.
According to the report, improvement in global growth is likely to be visible in 2015, with 2014 expected to be another below-average year.
“For the G-20 economies, GDP growth is forecast at around 2.8 per cent in 2014 (broadly unchanged from 2013) before rising to 3.2 per cent in 2015,” it added.