India beats China to become new global economic growth pole: Harvard Study

According to the Harvard University's Center for International Development (CID) growth projections, India will feature on top of the list of the fastest growing economies till 2025 with an average annual growth of 7.7 per cent, for a variety of reasons.

By: PTI | New Delhi | Published:July 9, 2017 8:14 pm
India economy, fastest growing economy, indian economy, indian economic growth The study attributed India’s rapid growth prospects to the fact that it is particularly well positioned to continue diversifying into new areas, given the capabilities accumulated to date. Representational Image.

India has emerged as the economic pole of global growth by surpassing China and is expected to maintain its lead over the coming decade, says a new study by Harvard University. According to the Harvard University’s Center for International Development (CID) growth projections, India will feature on top of the list of the fastest growing economies till 2025 with an average annual growth of 7.7 per cent, for a variety of reasons.

“The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighbouring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade,” the CID research suggested.

The study attributed India’s rapid growth prospects to the fact that it is particularly well positioned to continue diversifying into new areas, given the capabilities accumulated to date. “India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics,” the growth projection pointed out.

“The major oil economies are experiencing the pitfalls of their reliance on one resource. India, Indonesia and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that allow for more diverse and more complex production that predicts faster growth in the coming years,” it added.

Stating that economic growth fails to follow one easy pattern, the study said, “The countries that are expected to be the fastest growing – India, Turkey, Indonesia, Uganda, and Bulgaria – are diverse in all political, institutional, geographic and demographic dimensions.”

“What they share is a focus on expanding the capabilities of their workforce that leaves them well positioned to diversify into new products and products of increasingly greater complexity,” the new growth projections by CID added.

Besides, the projections divide countries into three basic categories — the countries with too few productive capabilities to easily diversify into related products. Secondly, the countries that have enough capabilities that make diversification and growth easier, which include India, Indonesia and Turkey.

Last, the advanced countries such as Japan, Germany and the US that already produce nearly all existing products, so that progress will require pushing the world’s technological frontier by inventing new products, a process that implies slower growth.

Growth in emerging markets is predicted to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly says CID’s new growth projections. The growth projections are based on measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.

The CID is a university-wide center that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty.

For all the latest Business News, download Indian Express App

  1. R
    Jul 10, 2017 at 5:32 am
    Of course, Congressis and other Modi haters will never agree with this. But do they really matter anymore? Rahul is practically non-existent in most Indians' sensibilities, spending time mostly overseas and never worrying about the wretched conditions of his cons uents in Amethi Sonia has stopped making political speeches, knowing that nobody pays any attention to them Priyanka lost any appeal as a potential Congressi leader ever since she began justifying her husband's get-rich-quick nefarious land deals. Other Modi haters, like Kejri and Mamata, are neck deep in their own baggage: One facing allegations of taking 2 crore in bribes and the other practicing her burqa to protect her vote bank while emerging local caliphates in West Bengal ransack Hindu properties and threaten them. Is India in safe hands under the Modi government? You can say "Yes" to that a million and one times.
    1. P
      Jul 10, 2017 at 4:55 am
      The world has confidence on India now. It has a real leader, away from the control of family dynasty, who works honestly for the progress of the people and the country, without looking at his watch and without bothering what political opponents say. He is able to humble down the strongest enemy, which we saw, how the Chinese President was standing in front of him at G20, he is able to bring to him the leader of World Police, Trump, which he saw, Trump walking up to our PM Modi to discuss surrounded by other leaders. With this precious metal, we are set to march to become the global leader of economy, unchallenged. What is necessary in India is for the people to recognize and support the man, leaving aside petty political and communal colours.
      1. M
        Jul 10, 2017 at 4:49 am
        Probably that father unknown SoBrahMINION Swamy must have paid the Harvard team to just release some BS like that.
        1. R
          Jul 10, 2017 at 3:34 am
          Although China and India have great potential and promising work force, China will be still ahead due to decisive government without shackles of traitors as opposition as in India and also they don't have shackles of 'reservation' based on caste and j!had! sleeper cells supported by likes of Sonia,Momota,Lallu,Pawar,Mulayam,Maya, communists etc. as in India stopping its progress at every stage.
          1. U
            Uday Yadav
            Jul 10, 2017 at 1:39 am
            What is Harvard talking about? Don't they know there are some so called Indians who want to vote for MahaThugBandhan because of their caste and religious reasons?
            1. I
              Indian Abroad
              Jul 10, 2017 at 1:32 am
              Advantage China: (1) China has an unbeatable labor force. Chinese around the World are the best workers. (2) China also has its thieves around stealing all the intellectual properties and technologies from around the World (3) China has unethically but successfully manipulated its currency (4) China does not have a democracy so is not answerable to its own people (5) China has taken a stand that has made it not answerable at International level. No wonder it has made the 'progress'. But China is blowing away all the above advantage through its stupid foreign policy and ic expansionism. Thank god there is US, there is Japan.
              1. M
                Jul 10, 2017 at 12:40 am
                if India had true democracy (that goes with accountability, responsibility, no Nikah with vote banking just to enjoy the power power, it should have been ahead of china in the first place. What investment went to china would have come to India. Now that true and real democracy is working, it is bound to surge ahead.
                1. B
                  Jul 10, 2017 at 12:23 am
                  It is just the projection, which might not come to be reality because of narrow minded people who always enjoy politicising everything. It not about Modi or Chidambaram. It is about India and Indians,( some might have their own definition about "Indian Citizen"). And let us not forget the growth potential of India did not come to this level only within last three years. People like Dr Mohan Singh who was the architect in liberising Indian economy in '90s, just like Deng Xiaoping.
                  1. D
                    Dr JAMES
                    Jul 10, 2017 at 12:37 am
                    Hello. Do you want to buy or for money, Spinal Hospital is urgently in need for O ve B ve and A ve AT thereat of $800,000,00. If any one is or sell please contact us through Email Need Genuine Donors Waiting for your responds . Best Regards .Dr James. Contact 917859928890
                    1. R
                      Jul 10, 2017 at 3:28 am
                      Architect of liberalizing Indian economy was because of political risk and determination by PV Narsimha Rao as PM. He handpicked MMS to be his FM and gave him guiddance and freedom to work he himself dealing with all type of congress backstabbers like Arjun Singh, Sonia and Pawar. Reality is as PM MMS did nothing except facilitating national loot by Sonia and co. Real credit should go to PVN insulted and shunned by congress crooks led by Sonia. Soon NaMo government may honor PVN with Bharatratna, which in all likelihood will be opposed by Sonia co consisting of Diggy, Mani Iyer, Sibbal,Salman Kurshid etc. By the way all anti-nationals call PVN as closet Sanghi for facilitating make shift Ram temple at Ayodhya!
                    2. Load More Comments