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Economic slowdown not just technical, it’s real: SBI report

The Research note has come ten days after BJP president Amit Shah attributed the slowdown — GDP growth slid for the sixth quarter in a row to hit a three-year low at 5.7 per cent in the June quarter — to “technical reasons”.

By: ENS Economic Bureau | Mumbai | Updated: September 20, 2017 7:37 am
gdp, gdp growth, sbi, state bank of india, india economy, indian economy, india gdp growth The SBI report said that the economy is in urgent need of a fiscal push now to shore up growth.

India is currently undergoing a slowdown in the GDP growth rate and the continued fall since the second quarter of FY17 is “technically not short-term in nature or even transient,” SBI Research has said in a report.

“While it is true that the economy has undergone too many structural breaks since November 2016, and that may have precipitated a transient slowdown, it will be unfair if we only call it transient. A slowdown in demand has only aggravated the situation,” it said hinting that the slowdown is for real. Private sector capital formation is also languishing as resolution of stressed assets is yet to happen. “This situation demands that the government steps in and uses the fiscal policy as a tool to rev up the economy,” SBI report said.

The Research note has come ten days after BJP president Amit Shah attributed the slowdown — GDP growth slid for the sixth quarter in a row to hit a three-year low at 5.7 per cent in the June quarter — to “technical reasons”.

“GDP growth, jo Atalji ke samay 8 per cent thi, 2013-14 me wo 4.7 (per cent) par aayi, aur ab usko – last quarter chod dijiye, ek technical karano se hua hai – magar last quarter chod dijiye to 7.2 per cent par usko pahuchane me safalta mili hai. (GDP growth, which was at 8 per cent during former Prime Minister Atalji’s regime, came down to 4.7 per cent in UPA regime. Now, if you leave the last quarter — when growth fell due to technical reasons — we have been successful in increasing it to 7.2 per cent),” Shah had said while addressing industrialists at a FICCI session in New Delhi on September 9.

Stating that the economy is in urgent need of a fiscal push now to shore up growth, the SBI report said: “We believe the government should consciously expand the spending and fiscal deficit, without disturbing the borrowing maths. This can be done in the following manner. First, the government being aware of the crowding out argument, has kept the net market borrowing on a declining trend over the years with Rs 3.4 lakh crore budgeted for FY18. This reduction in net borrowings has been plausible owing to buybacks and switches. The government can consider more of these buybacks and switches in next fiscal as a first option to keep net borrowings under control.”

“Second, if we look at the total borrowings which is the sum total of net market borrowings through dated securities and short term sources, it may be noted that short-term borrowings of only Rs 2002 crore were budgeted for FY18. However, we believe that short term borrowings could be increased from the current levels, as movements in short term rates depend crucially on liquidity,” it said.

Core liquidity which rose sharply post demonetisation and reached a peak of Rs 4.48 lakh crore in March 2017 is still excess, amounting to Rs 2.7 lakh crore in August 2017. “Thus increase in short-term borrowings and hence a concomitant decline in long term borrowings will definitely not lead to higher interest rates under the current circumstances. This will also keep the total borrowings in check,” SBI report said.

The government can always use the clause in Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act that says “far-reaching structural reforms in the economy with unanticipated fiscal implications” which can provide an escape clause (or slip) for a 0.5 per cent deviation from the recommended target.

The report said the government has pegged the fiscal deficit for FY18 at 3.2 per cent of GDP and remains committed to achieving 3 per cent in the following year, but it should not get straitjacketed in the fiscal consolidation agenda so that the development goals are compromised.

Another option available for reviving growth as being made in several circles is by depreciating the currency so as to make the exports more competitive. “However, even though we believe a depreciation in exchange rate will be a welcome move as far as shoring up export competitiveness, it will militate against inflation targeting,” SBI report said.

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  1. S
    SN OJHA
    Sep 20, 2017 at 7:10 pm
    Post global melt down 2008 Then UPA govt.unleased stimulus package and we are bearing the brunt of NPA .Once again chorous of fiscal promiscuity to revive animal spirit of cold economy.Jobless growth over the decades,false socialism and chronic corruption across the board is responsible for puncturing fabled Indian economy.
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    1. Yathy Pattali
      Sep 20, 2017 at 5:44 pm
      This report quoting SBI Report, But it is misleading. You have to clarify whether this is related to State Bank of India or not, SBI it seems a private market research group!!
      (2)(5)
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      1. K
        Kamal Pasha
        Sep 20, 2017 at 12:49 pm
        And China's economic is going upward very fast, leaving everyone behind.
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        1. K
          ksp
          Sep 20, 2017 at 12:35 pm
          if ex RBI governor could leave for pursuing teaching assignment, similarly, these researchers have to pursue their goals outside SBI's economic wing.
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          1. G
            GNS
            Sep 20, 2017 at 12:24 pm
            SBI Report only confirms what Bloomberg has been saying for a few months.More than demonetisation,more than GST,fear is gripping people's minds leading to inertia nation-wide. I heard from a retired engineer from Delhi that files stopped moving without the juice of speed money being passed around.On top of everything else, there is now a fear of energised inspection Raj from all union government agencies as if all businessmen are cheats if they don't belong to BJP or its allies. So we have to watch what Modi will do now with elections not too far away.He will have to find a scapegoat for his failures.Pakistan, no and it becomes important just before elections if they attack or India attacks alleging they attacked first.Muslims and minorities, no because he has already destroyed their jobs and how can he blame them ? He can't ask people to sacrifice because they sacrificed too much already Just as he used physical threats after 2002, he may use CBI,IT to silence critics,press.WATCH OUT
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