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Bankers are expecting further easing of the monetary policy in the fourth quarter and transmission of earlier rate cuts by banks after the presentation of the Union Budget in February 2016 and a clearer picture about the economy is known.
KVS Manian, president, Kotak Mahindra Bank, said, “Key economic indicators seem to suggest that the Indian economy has started showing the early signs of recovery. While the central bank will continue to keep a close eye on inflation, for sustained high growth and a strong revival in the investment cycle, we anticipate further gradual easing of rates through FY2017.”
The RBI has indicated that inflation will plateau in December. “Going forward, I believe RBI will have a scope to ease rates in Q4 as CPI inflation comfortably undershoots the 6.0 per cent January 2016 target and the government reaffirms its commitment to fiscal consolidation while embarking on key reforms of bankruptcy code, UDAY and GST. Meanwhile, I am confident, that economy’s revival and ongoing efforts to clean their balance sheets will offer banks the opportunity to push monetary transmission beyond the 60 bps seen this calendar year,” said Rana Kapoor, MD & CEO, Yes Bank.
Melwyn Rego MD & CEO, Bank of India, said, “Given the current scenario in the fixed income and forex markets largely on account of expected US Fed rate hike, the statement that RBI will remain accommodative, if the room becomes available, has given some comfort to the market. New guidelines on base rate calculations are expected soon and banks will realign the rates to new methodology. This along with the proposal to link small savings interest rates to market interest rates is expected to facilitate better transmission of monetary policy.”
According to Chanda Kochhar, MD and CEO, ICICI Bank, as the impact of policy measures taken so far play out in terms of bank funding costs, lending rates are expected to continue to moderate. “Overall, macro-economic conditions are conducive for an improving growth trajectory as various policy measures announced by the Centre take effect,” she said. Arundhati Bhattacharya, chairman, SBI, said, “The policy undertone has leaned towards the neutral-to-dovish side. Governor’s indication of being accommodative policy sends a positive signal for Indian economy. The guidelines on the base rate calculation based on marginal cost of funds will be watched and appropriate actions will be taken on the same.”
“Overall with CAD and inflation targets well within control and Q2 GDP at 7.4 per cent, the Indian economy seems headed for a good financial year ahead,” the SBI chairman said.