Economic deceleration is real. Acknowledging it is the first step to recovery
Growth in gross domestic product unexpectedly slowed in the April-June quarter and economists have cut estimates for the year through March to 6.8 per cent from 7.3 per cent, the slowest pace in four years.
Despite the weakening growth numbers in both these countries, China and India will continue to be the key growth engines for the sector in Asia, representing over 80 per cent of the expected growth in 2018, says a Moody’s report.
By linking growth both with employment as well as with the imperative of holding our own with China for strategic autonomy, Prime Minister Modi has brought sustainable, high quality, inclusive economic growth to the centre of political discussion, which is where it rightfully belongs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces limited options to reverse India’s slowing growth. Modi’s administration, which took power in 2014 promising to create jobs, is battling a public perception of economic mismanagement after growth fell below 6 percent in the June quarter.
Since late 2013’s taper tantrums, the quantum of jump in India’s reserves ($100 billion) is the highest compared to its Asian counterparts, outside of Japan, the bank said.
He said, “Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the country’s economy has become the fastest growing economy in the world.” Shah blamed the previous UPA rule saying during its rule the economy was in a state of paralysis and the development was stranded.
The ever increasing political turmoil in the US is negatively affecting the currency, the dollar index against a group of six currencies was little changed at 93.854, after touching 93.847, its lowest since June 2016.
Arvind Subramanian said “we respect” the views and decisions of RBI in the broader good, but “I wanted to give you my own technical assessment of the inflation and growth outlook”.
With close to 500 companies reporting losses, the highest number in at least five quarters, the earnings season has been a big disappointment.
The report said India has positioned itself as the most dynamic emerging economy among the largest countries and is expected to remain the fastest growing on the back of robust private consumption and significant domestic reforms.
“Today whatever figures, whatever statistics are coming about the impact of demonetisation are broadly, mostly anecdotal and mostly based on anecdotal evidence,” Das said.
“Earlier mindset of policymakers was that just by dishing out a few favours to the affluent you can bring changes in the country’s economy,”said Jaitley.
“We expect growth to gain momentum in 2016-17 fiscal, with headline real GDP up at 7.8 per cent,” DBS said in a research note.
Fake, spin and jumla have been used to describe the latest GDP figures, but commentators appear to be relying, sometimes wilfully, on the wrong parameters.